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Post by andrewteale on Nov 7, 2020 9:31:10 GMT
PoliticalBetting have done their traditional "let's find a longshot for 4 years' time" post. They went for Buttigieg at 50-1.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 7, 2020 10:03:01 GMT
PoliticalBetting have done their traditional "let's find a longshot for 4 years' time" post. They went for Buttigieg at 50-1. I was on Buttigieg for this election, and Hickenlooper, and Brown and Gabbard. |
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Post by therealriga on Nov 7, 2020 12:10:30 GMT
Couldn't we at least have waited until after the inauguration to start this thread?!  Well the 2020 thread starts with the incisive observation that "FFS, Trump hasn't even been inaugurated yet!" so why not continue the grand forum tradition? |
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Post by therealriga on Nov 7, 2020 12:37:59 GMT
In terms of redistricting it will be confirmed next month who gains and loses, but estimates are:
TX +3, FL +2. Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon all +1. That gives Rep +7, Dem +3.
Losing one: Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. (The last 2 to be lost are tight between NY losing a second and California and Minnesota losing a seat but as they're all Dem held it makes no difference.) That gives Dem -7, Rep -3.
Assuming this year ends 306-232 in Biden's favor, the new map will be 302-236.
It would be the first time ever that California's representation has decreased, the first time since 1790 that Rhode Island has a single member, the first time that Florida has more representation than NY and the first time since 1990 that Montana has two members.
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Nov 7, 2020 13:19:23 GMT
Couldn't we at least have waited until after the inauguration to start this thread?! Well the 2020 thread starts with the incisive observation that "FFS, Trump hasn't even been inaugurated yet!" so why not continue the grand forum tradition? To be clear, my post was in response to the since deleted (and not particularly missed) poster who started the thread. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2020 14:56:21 GMT
In terms of redistricting it will be confirmed next month who gains and loses, but estimates are: TX +3, FL +2. Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon all +1. That gives Rep +7, Dem +3. Losing one: Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. (The last 2 to be lost are tight between NY losing a second and California and Minnesota losing a seat but as they're all Dem held it makes no difference.) That gives Dem -7, Rep -3. Assuming this year ends 306-232 in Biden's favor, the new map will be 302-236. It would be the first time ever that California's representation has decreased, the first time since 1790 that Rhode Island has a single member, the first time that Florida has more representation than NY and the first time since 1990 that Montana has two members. A new district in Montana could be quite interesting |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 7, 2020 15:11:48 GMT
In terms of redistricting it will be confirmed next month who gains and loses, but estimates are: TX +3, FL +2. Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon all +1. That gives Rep +7, Dem +3. Losing one: Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. (The last 2 to be lost are tight between NY losing a second and California and Minnesota losing a seat but as they're all Dem held it makes no difference.) That gives Dem -7, Rep -3. Assuming this year ends 306-232 in Biden's favor, the new map will be 302-236. It would be the first time ever that California's representation has decreased, the first time since 1790 that Rhode Island has a single member, the first time that Florida has more representation than NY and the first time since 1990 that Montana has two members. A new district in Montana could be quite interesting A natural East/West split would create a very competitive district in the west of the state and on the right boundaries could even lean Democrat. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 7, 2020 19:22:47 GMT
These premature threads are almost always pointless, but perhaps even more so in this case.
Will Biden still be president in four years' time? If so, what will the economy look like? Will the progressive wing of the party be gearing up for a strong challenge to him or VP Harris? Or maybe President Harris? Will the GOP nominate another Trump or someone with similar politics? Or will they go for someone surprisingly moderate?
Difficult questions.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2020 19:28:31 GMT
A new district in Montana could be quite interesting A natural East/West split would create a very competitive district in the west of the state and on the right boundaries could even lean Democrat. What affect does Gianforte winning have on redistricting? |
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relique
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Post by relique on Nov 7, 2020 23:25:51 GMT
A new district in Montana could be quite interesting A natural East/West split would create a very competitive district in the west of the state and on the right boundaries could even lean Democrat. With a bit of very democratic-friendly gerrymandering, I find a district with a 47/48 partisan divide.
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Post by ibfc on Nov 8, 2020 4:35:23 GMT
A natural East/West split would create a very competitive district in the west of the state and on the right boundaries could even lean Democrat. What affect does Gianforte winning have on redistricting? It has created a Republican trifecta I guess. So it should be a republican friendly map. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2020 9:00:38 GMT
These premature threads are almost always pointless, but perhaps even more so in this case. Will Biden still be president in four years' time? If so, what will the economy look like? Will the progressive wing of the party be gearing up for a strong challenge to him or VP Harris? Or maybe President Harris? Will the GOP nominate another Trump or someone with similar politics? Or will they go for someone surprisingly moderate? The jockeying for position in the GOP has already started, (& probably less obviously in the Dems) so the tread isn’t pointless. As you show in your second para. ... imho of course |
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Post by therealriga on Nov 8, 2020 9:35:41 GMT
A natural East/West split would create a very competitive district in the west of the state and on the right boundaries could even lean Democrat. With a bit of very democratic-friendly gerrymandering, I find a district with a 47/48 partisan divide.
I took that a bit further and got a district which is 49.8 - 46.1 in the Dems' favour. davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1eb91f74-1c7d-494e-a754-d547b929925f |
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relique
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Post by relique on Nov 8, 2020 16:12:21 GMT
I don't see your map. Is it the right link ? |
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 9, 2020 18:01:15 GMT
Not sure this is a 'scoop' as it had already been said in the media that the Trump team have discussed it.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 9, 2020 19:21:35 GMT
He can't run in 2024 if he won in 2020 ...
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 9, 2020 22:54:37 GMT
Not sure this is a 'scoop' as it had already been said in the media that the Trump team have discussed it. I'm not sure the GOP would let him stand again, so I doubt he could achieve a Grover Cleveland. If he stands as an Independent he could end up gifting Biden/Harris a landslide. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 9, 2020 23:09:47 GMT
The GOP establishment certainly wouldn't want him to stand again, but they don't decide.
The voters in the Republican primaries and caucuses will decide who their next candidate is.
Things might change, but looking at it from today's POV, I think there looks like a high chance that he would win and become their candidate.
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Post by ibfc on Nov 10, 2020 2:11:09 GMT
There’s very little chance that Trump doesn’t crush a Republican Primary.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 10, 2020 3:17:00 GMT
As I've said upthread, if he, or his children, stand in '24, they'll be the candidate. As long as the Trump family are involved in Republican politics, they'll have massive influence.
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