US Presidential Election 2024

[J.G.Harston]

A wrinkle to look out for is that the 2020 decennial redistricting will alter the exact shape of the 2024 Electoral College.

[johng]

CNN is reporting that the Trump team are already discussing plans for 2024.

FML.

[Deleted]

Nov 5, 2020 18:44:35 GMT johng said:

CNN is reporting that the Trump team are already discussing plans for 2024.

FML.

See !

told you thread was needed 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Nov 5, 2020 18:44:35 GMT johng said:

CNN is reporting that the Trump team are already discussing plans for 2024.

FML.

Biden v Trump II. Less like Eisenhower versus Stevenson I or II, more like the first fight where Anthony Joshua lost to the fat Mexican lad.

[WJ]

Oh lord. Thinking about it, it is totally unsurprising. But he is going to be insufferable over the next 4 years, isn't he? He won't go gently into the good night like most former presidents do, he will continue to hold rallies and will just snipe, snipe, snipe.

[Adam in Stroud]

Nov 5, 2020 18:52:57 GMT WJ said:

Oh lord. Thinking about it, it is totally unsurprising. But he is going to be insufferable over the next 4 years, isn't he? He won't go gently into the good night like most former presidents do, he will continue to hold rallies and will just snipe, snipe, snipe.

The man's got to earn a living somehow.

[cogload]

I doubt there will be a Trump on the ticket in 24, the entire family will be fighting various Federal and state charges for Fraud, tax fiddling and other crimes for the next umpteen years.

The AG of the Southern District of New York is first in line.

[Izzyeviel]

Nov 5, 2020 18:52:57 GMT WJ said:

Oh lord. Thinking about it, it is totally unsurprising. But he is going to be insufferable over the next 4 years, isn't he? He won't go gently into the good night like most former presidents do, he will continue to hold rallies and will just snipe, snipe, snipe.

what did you expect?

[johng]

Very interesting thread. The guy is right. Don Jr. posted and hopefuls for 2024 (Cotton/ Haley/ Hawley) jumped straight in.

[johnloony]

Biden vs. Somebody I haven't thought of yet (definitely not any of the Trumps or Trump-proxies)

[curiousliberal]

Trump will run again and win his second term facing a Biden who would have wanted to retire but felt compelled to give it one more go when the spectre returned to haunt his presidency. Post-2024 diplomacy will be shaped in the backroom deals his crumbling business empire makes to stay afloat over the next four years.

[ibfc]

IMO, there’s a higher chance of Trump running in 2024 than Biden.

[greenchristian]

Nov 6, 2020 3:48:59 GMT ibfc said:

IMO, there’s a higher chance of Trump running in 2024 than Biden.

Trump struggles to walk down a ramp. I would be utterly amazed if he's physically capable of running.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Running in '24 would be perfect for him. You can see it now. He sets up a TV news channel next year solely devoted to his propaganda. He relentlessly builds up the stab in the back myth and then, in early '23, he announces he's running for his last term to finish the job. Who'd dare challenge him for the GOP nomination? He's made massive inroads with minorities, both gay and ethnic, reawakened working class conservatism and has the most votes of any Republican ever. After four years of a Biden presidency I can see him easily winning.

[Adam in Stroud]

Nov 6, 2020 7:28:50 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Running in '24 would be perfect for him. You can see it now. He sets up a TV news channel next year solely devoted to his propaganda. He relentlessly builds up the stab in the back myth and then, in early '23, he announces he's running for his last term to finish the job. Who'd dare challenge him for the GOP nomination? He's made massive inroads with minorities, both gay and ethnic, reawakened working class conservatism and has the most votes of any Republican ever. After four years of a Biden presidency I can see him easily winning.

I'm pessimistic about a Biden presidency, given the economic outlook and the likelihood of GOP obstructionism in the Senate ad Supreme Court.

But suppose Biden does what he's said he'd  do and try to heal the nation?

Suppose he dials down the woke rhetoric in his own party and reaches out to white working class and rural voters? Suppose he pumps money into the economy in his Green New Deal so that new jobs in renewable energy and in conversion of infrastructure to a post-carbon economy outstrip jobs in steel, coal and fracking (rather as Obama's push into fracking transformed the US energy market). He uses his Presidency to take control of the agenda. He inserts a crowbar into the rift that has oddly emerged between Trump and Fox News over this election. (Going out on a limb, suppose Rupert Murdoch dies within the next four years and a new generation takes over the Fox empire.) How does Trumpism look then?

Meanwhile, suppose Trump, now stripped of Presidential immunity, has to face investigation into his tax affairs. Suppose the key finding of the Mueller enquiry - i.e. that Trump specifically could not be cleared of treason but that as incumbent President he could not be prosecuted, now lands on the desk of a Democratic Attorney General.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Nov 6, 2020 2:14:00 GMT curiousliberal said:

Trump will run again and win his second term facing a Biden who would have wanted to retire but felt compelled to give it one more go when the spectre returned to haunt his presidency. Post-2024 diplomacy will be shaped in the backroom deals his crumbling business empire makes to stay afloat over the next four years.

A rerun = 159 years old for the total age 2 presidential, unlikely I think.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Nov 6, 2020 7:59:51 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Nov 6, 2020 7:28:50 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Running in '24 would be perfect for him. You can see it now. He sets up a TV news channel next year solely devoted to his propaganda. He relentlessly builds up the stab in the back myth and then, in early '23, he announces he's running for his last term to finish the job. Who'd dare challenge him for the GOP nomination? He's made massive inroads with minorities, both gay and ethnic, reawakened working class conservatism and has the most votes of any Republican ever. After four years of a Biden presidency I can see him easily winning.

I'm pessimistic about a Biden presidency, given the economic outlook and the likelihood of GOP obstructionism in the Senate ad Supreme Court.

But suppose Biden does what he's said he'd  do and try to heal the nation?

Suppose he dials down the woke rhetoric in his own party and reaches out to white working class and rural voters? Suppose he pumps money into the economy in his Green New Deal so that new jobs in renewable energy and in conversion of infrastructure to a post-carbon economy outstrip jobs in steel, coal and fracking (rather as Obama's push into fracking transformed the US energy market). He uses his Presidency to take control of the agenda. He inserts a crowbar into the rift that has oddly emerged between Trump and Fox News over this election. (Going out on a limb, suppose Rupert Murdoch dies within the next four years and a new generation takes over the Fox empire.) How does Trumpism look then?

Meanwhile, suppose Trump, now stripped of Presidential immunity, has to face investigation into his tax affairs. Suppose the key finding of the Mueller enquiry - i.e. that Trump specifically could not be cleared of treason but that as incumbent President he could not be prosecuted, now lands on the desk of a Democratic Attorney General.

Fox is already disassociating itself from Trump. This is why he'll either set up his own or, effectively, take over OANN. I also think that, even hypothetically, Biden will be a failure. We all know he's a lame duck as he won't serve a second term so the Kamala people will be plotting 2024 from January. As you've said, the Senate will be against him and, despite McConnell's deal making nature -as seen under Obama, Trump hasn't been repudiated. He's lost, but only barely. Therefore there will be no cooperation. Come 2022, the bloodbath, the House will be against him too. I fear, 2020-'24 will be a mere respite from the Trumpian psycho drama and he'll be back in four years, only this time he'll be enraged.

[matureleft]

Nov 6, 2020 7:59:51 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Nov 6, 2020 7:28:50 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Running in '24 would be perfect for him. You can see it now. He sets up a TV news channel next year solely devoted to his propaganda. He relentlessly builds up the stab in the back myth and then, in early '23, he announces he's running for his last term to finish the job. Who'd dare challenge him for the GOP nomination? He's made massive inroads with minorities, both gay and ethnic, reawakened working class conservatism and has the most votes of any Republican ever. After four years of a Biden presidency I can see him easily winning.

I'm pessimistic about a Biden presidency, given the economic outlook and the likelihood of GOP obstructionism in the Senate ad Supreme Court.

But suppose Biden does what he's said he'd  do and try to heal the nation?

Suppose he dials down the woke rhetoric in his own party and reaches out to white working class and rural voters? Suppose he pumps money into the economy in his Green New Deal so that new jobs in renewable energy and in conversion of infrastructure to a post-carbon economy outstrip jobs in steel, coal and fracking (rather as Obama's push into fracking transformed the US energy market). He uses his Presidency to take control of the agenda. He inserts a crowbar into the rift that has oddly emerged between Trump and Fox News over this election. (Going out on a limb, suppose Rupert Murdoch dies within the next four years and a new generation takes over the Fox empire.) How does Trumpism look then?

Meanwhile, suppose Trump, now stripped of Presidential immunity, has to face investigation into his tax affairs. Suppose the key finding of the Mueller enquiry - i.e. that Trump specifically could not be cleared of treason but that as incumbent President he could not be prosecuted, now lands on the desk of a Democratic Attorney General.

A lot of supposing there. There's one certainty. Trump will be 4 years older. While he appears in fair health for a man of his age (and he's avoided some, but not all, of the things that would be likely to produce ill health - his diet seems bad) time's winged chariot is unstoppable.

Biden's governing success will have to be based on both building a moderate coalitiion and keeping his left at least reasonably content (or their facing the reality that the votes aren't there for their agenda). He's likely to appoint Republicans to key positions, and, I'd guess, he'll attempt to unpick McConnell's grip on his senators by finding some common ground with the few centrists. There are some potentially vulnerable GOP senators up in 2022 who might want to build a bipartisan CV. He knows the institution and its key players pretty well. And I'd expect his team to note the Latino results and think about their origins. Cuba yes, but almost certainly the appeal that keeping the economy going has to marginal workers in a state with minimal welfare provision. And there's little evidence that Latino voters are social radicals. And I'd guess that Biden's deliberately slightly socially distanced campaign made community engagement hard. Plenty to do, but these results show that their votes can move. 

Finally, we ought to face the fact that parts of Trump's agenda made sense to the American people however poorly he explained and implemented it. We won't see a reversal of his economic natonalism. It might be carried through with more nuance and without the bombast. I'd be surprised if the approach to China changed radically although I'd expect it to be approached with much more partnership with allies. And I'd expect border control to remain robust but without the nastiness.

And, as every government does, he'll need some luck. A working vaccine and a return to something like normality.

[London Lad]

Nov 6, 2020 7:59:51 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Nov 6, 2020 7:28:50 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Running in '24 would be perfect for him. You can see it now. He sets up a TV news channel next year solely devoted to his propaganda. He relentlessly builds up the stab in the back myth and then, in early '23, he announces he's running for his last term to finish the job. Who'd dare challenge him for the GOP nomination? He's made massive inroads with minorities, both gay and ethnic, reawakened working class conservatism and has the most votes of any Republican ever. After four years of a Biden presidency I can see him easily winning.

I'm pessimistic about a Biden presidency, given the economic outlook and the likelihood of GOP obstructionism in the Senate ad Supreme Court.

But suppose Biden does what he's said he'd  do and try to heal the nation?

Suppose he dials down the woke rhetoric in his own party and reaches out to white working class and rural voters? Suppose he pumps money into the economy in his Green New Deal so that new jobs in renewable energy and in conversion of infrastructure to a post-carbon economy outstrip jobs in steel, coal and fracking (rather as Obama's push into fracking transformed the US energy market). He uses his Presidency to take control of the agenda. He inserts a crowbar into the rift that has oddly emerged between Trump and Fox News over this election. (Going out on a limb, suppose Rupert Murdoch dies within the next four years and a new generation takes over the Fox empire.) How does Trumpism look then?

Meanwhile, suppose Trump, now stripped of Presidential immunity, has to face investigation into his tax affairs. Suppose the key finding of the Mueller enquiry - i.e. that Trump specifically could not be cleared of treason but that as incumbent President he could not be prosecuted, now lands on the desk of a Democratic Attorney General.

I'm not sure he has the power to do that and why would the Squad listen to him anyway?

[thirdchill]

Nov 6, 2020 9:11:06 GMT London Lad said:

Nov 6, 2020 7:59:51 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

I'm pessimistic about a Biden presidency, given the economic outlook and the likelihood of GOP obstructionism in the Senate ad Supreme Court.

But suppose Biden does what he's said he'd  do and try to heal the nation?

Suppose he dials down the woke rhetoric in his own party and reaches out to white working class and rural voters? Suppose he pumps money into the economy in his Green New Deal so that new jobs in renewable energy and in conversion of infrastructure to a post-carbon economy outstrip jobs in steel, coal and fracking (rather as Obama's push into fracking transformed the US energy market). He uses his Presidency to take control of the agenda. He inserts a crowbar into the rift that has oddly emerged between Trump and Fox News over this election. (Going out on a limb, suppose Rupert Murdoch dies within the next four years and a new generation takes over the Fox empire.) How does Trumpism look then?

Meanwhile, suppose Trump, now stripped of Presidential immunity, has to face investigation into his tax affairs. Suppose the key finding of the Mueller enquiry - i.e. that Trump specifically could not be cleared of treason but that as incumbent President he could not be prosecuted, now lands on the desk of a Democratic Attorney General.

I'm not sure he has the power to do that and why would the Squad listen to him anyway?

He doesn't have the power to prevent rhetoric, on the other hand policy-wise he can make an active choice to ignore that side of things. If the senate is republican-held, those things wouldn't have a chance of happening anyway so it's a perfect excuse to ignore most of it.

Given the economic costs of covid, the economy is going to have to be the main focus anyway, and a focus on trying to mitigate the costs for the poorest (who have been hit the hardest) would be the best move. This sort of policy would have the support of enough of the left of the party, particularly people like Sanders.