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Post by timmullen on Sept 16, 2024 8:01:43 GMT
Won't this just feed the paranoia "deep state" out to prevent Trump by any means possible? According to the New York Times they actually interviewed this guy last year in a feature on Americans volunteering to fight for Ukraine, where he claimed to be recruiting former Afghan opponents of the Taliban. His X bio also says “we must all do what we can to support the Chinese”. He’s also been arrested and charged for barricading himself in a building in North Carolina but the NYT are unable to find out what happened to those charges.
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Post by sanders on Sept 16, 2024 8:39:41 GMT
Senate still anyone's game right now. Partisan polarisation will likely doom Tester, and it probably limits Sen. Rosen's Nevada lead. I'd be amazed if she won by 10%.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 17, 2024 19:33:48 GMT
In an amazing twist of fate, the prosecutor in charge of investigating the golf course gunman happens to be an immigrant from Haiti! You couldnt make it up.
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Post by sanders on Sept 18, 2024 6:18:39 GMT
Democrats haven't been this fired up in the Tar Heel State since 2008 when Barack Obama won it. Health warning that Republicans have only won North Carolina's governorship once since 1988. Down-ballot Democrats' tenacity is striking there. That sort of thing has now gone in Montana and West Virginia which also elected Democratic governors in 2016.
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Post by sanders on Sept 18, 2024 7:20:18 GMT
Back to Texas voter registration changes. Denton is a longstanding GOP stronghold. I believe Harris will win it. Trump won by 20% in 2016. He won by 8% in 2020. Denton and Collin are effective Texas bellwethers Still, the margins in all the others matter too. Harris probably needs 70% in Dallas, Harris, and Travis.
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 18, 2024 8:41:51 GMT
Back to Texas voter registration changes. Denton is a longstanding GOP stronghold. I believe Harris will win it. Trump won by 20% in 2016. He won by 8% in 2020. Denton and Collin are effective Texas bellwethers Still, the margins in all the others matter too. Harris probably needs 70% in Dallas, Harris, and Travis. What evidence is there that this is Democrat registration - what's not to say it's fired up MAGAs?
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Post by sanders on Sept 18, 2024 9:29:31 GMT
Back to Texas voter registration changes. Denton is a longstanding GOP stronghold. I believe Harris will win it. Trump won by 20% in 2016. He won by 8% in 2020. Denton and Collin are effective Texas bellwethers Still, the margins in all the others matter too. Harris probably needs 70% in Dallas, Harris, and Travis. What evidence is there that this is Democrat registration - what's not to say it's fired up MAGAs? NYT article suggests it generally favours Democrats, but there's evidence from Pennsylvania that Democrats' lead in voter registration has narrowed recently. Speaking of Texas elections, this Cheney endorsement may encourage some boomer neoliberals to vote for Allred over Cruz in the Lone Star State, or it may not, of course.
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Post by sanders on Sept 18, 2024 19:45:02 GMT
North Carolina - what a Harris victory looks like. Trump wins Cabarrus County by 7%. It's a long-standing Republican area outside Charlotte (sapphire blue Mecklenburg County on the map). Trump losing more ground with graduates wouldn't be too shocking, and Republicans are close to their ceiling in rural NC. Wasserman has also done an analysis of how Trump could take back Wisconsin if Black turnout wavers compared to 2020. 69% seems awfully high and possibly prone to a bit of a drop off, but then again, with Harris as the nominee, I'd be surprised if African Americans' enthusiasm to vote is dampened all that much.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 18, 2024 20:47:32 GMT
Teamsters has chosen to endorse neither candidate.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 18, 2024 21:09:28 GMT
It’s quite extraordinary that House Republicans are seemingly willing to risk a government shutdown this close to an election, that will only go one way in terms of who is to blame
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 18, 2024 21:20:09 GMT
It’s quite extraordinary that House Republicans are seemingly willing to risk a government shutdown this close to an election, that will only go one way in terms of who is to blame But he-who-must-be-obeyed has demanded it, so what choice do they have??
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Post by London Lad on Sept 18, 2024 21:34:03 GMT
Teamsters has chosen to endorse neither candidate. Wonder if that has anything to do with their latest polling?
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Post by stb12 on Sept 18, 2024 21:38:09 GMT
It’s quite extraordinary that House Republicans are seemingly willing to risk a government shutdown this close to an election, that will only go one way in terms of who is to blame But he-who-must-be-obeyed has demanded it, so what choice do they have?? Trump is using it as part of his usual approach of casting doubt on the voting process, but even from a self preservation point of view I find it incredible. If Trump loses there’s still a chance of retaining the House majority or at least keeping the margin tight and saving a load of seats in preparation for next time round, this way so many would go down with him The Senate Republicans seem to generally be more sensible on this so there’s no filibuster risk there. Mike Johnson will probably need to work with the Democrats to get something passed if it’s to be averted, and in fairness he has done deals with them a couple of times already
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Post by cathyc on Sept 18, 2024 21:42:42 GMT
But he-who-must-be-obeyed has demanded it, so what choice do they have?? Trump is using it as part of his usual approach of casting doubt on the voting process, but even from a self preservation point of view I find it incredible. If Trump loses there’s still a chance of retaining the House majority or at least keeping the margin tight and saving a load of seats in preparation for next time round, this way so many would go down with him The Senate Republicans seem to generally be more sensible on this so there’s no filibuster risk there. Mike Johnson will probably need to work with the Democrats to get something passed if it’s to be averted, and in fairness he has done deals with them a couple of times already Which will be of no relevance at all to Trump and if he withdraws the MAGA franchise for any dissenting Republican from his edict then there probably won't be a this time for them never mind a next one. The interesting split might be between those up for election in November and those that aren't
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Post by stb12 on Sept 18, 2024 21:53:43 GMT
Trump is using it as part of his usual approach of casting doubt on the voting process, but even from a self preservation point of view I find it incredible. If Trump loses there’s still a chance of retaining the House majority or at least keeping the margin tight and saving a load of seats in preparation for next time round, this way so many would go down with him The Senate Republicans seem to generally be more sensible on this so there’s no filibuster risk there. Mike Johnson will probably need to work with the Democrats to get something passed if it’s to be averted, and in fairness he has done deals with them a couple of times already Which will be of no relevance at all to Trump and if he withdraws the MAGA franchise for any dissenting Republican from his edict then there probably won't be a this time for them never mind a next one. The interesting split might be between those up for election in November and those that aren't The entire House is up for election every two years, it's the Senate where a just a third is up every two years due to the six year terms
Obviously some will be retiring, then there's some in swing districts and even ones that voted for Biden in 2020. Even in those cases some clearly fear losing Trump's base like you mention, even on a shared ticket the option is there to leave a race blank. But in practical number terms the fact they were only able to win a narrow majority in 2022 has caused all these issues
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 18, 2024 22:07:58 GMT
Teamsters has chosen to endorse neither candidate.
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