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Post by stb12 on Sept 13, 2024 7:31:30 GMT
I’m still very sure that they aren’t winning Texas At both Senate and Presidential level? I'm not convinced Cruz will win. Even if Trump wins the state. Cruz underperforms Trump (a rare phenomenon). Cruz has obvious weaknesses but I’d expect the Presidential race to carry him over by a few points. 2018 was a mid-term and back then I think quite a lot of Trump’s base would have still not trusted him due to the bruising 2016 primary so wouldn’t have been that motivated to vote for him, now he’ll be on the same ticket and has established himself as loyal to Trump I’m open minded if Allred clearly build up some momentum with polling over the next couple of months but currently he’s still not led any despite a couple being close, and he’ll need that to motivate further resources and fundraising
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Post by sanders on Sept 13, 2024 11:30:17 GMT
At both Senate and Presidential level? I'm not convinced Cruz will win. Even if Trump wins the state. Cruz underperforms Trump (a rare phenomenon). Cruz has obvious weaknesses but I’d expect the Presidential race to carry him over by a few points. 2018 was a mid-term and back then I think quite a lot of Trump’s base would have still not trusted him due to the bruising 2016 primary so wouldn’t have been that motivated to vote for him, now he’ll be on the same ticket and has established himself as loyal to Trump I’m open minded if Allred clearly build up some momentum with polling over the next couple of months but currently he’s still not led any despite a couple being close, and he’ll need that to motivate further resources and fundraising Texas could bee Democrats' 50th seat. Currently, Lisa Murkowski is looking like she'll be the most powerful person in Washington in January (since we're heading for 51-49 Senate with Republicans in the majority. Democrats need to decide if it's worth defending Montana to the extent that they are - yes it's a far cheaper media market than Texas, for obvious reasons, but the arithmetic doesn't work for Tester - he has only once polled over 50% (in the 2018 'blue wave') and local factors like the Keystone XL pipeline helped Tester that year. If TX is as close as some polls suggest, it's ripe for a Democratic onslaught, the likes of which Republicans haven't seen in decades in the state. It's been 30 years since a Democrat won there of course - when Bob Bullock was re-elected Lieutenant Governor in 1994 (as George W. Bush booted out Ann Richards at gubernatorial level).
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Post by stb12 on Sept 13, 2024 12:20:32 GMT
Cruz has obvious weaknesses but I’d expect the Presidential race to carry him over by a few points. 2018 was a mid-term and back then I think quite a lot of Trump’s base would have still not trusted him due to the bruising 2016 primary so wouldn’t have been that motivated to vote for him, now he’ll be on the same ticket and has established himself as loyal to Trump I’m open minded if Allred clearly build up some momentum with polling over the next couple of months but currently he’s still not led any despite a couple being close, and he’ll need that to motivate further resources and fundraising Texas could bee Democrats' 50th seat. Currently, Lisa Murkowski is looking like she'll be the most powerful person in Washington in January (since we're heading for 51-49 Senate with Republicans in the majority. Democrats need to decide if it's worth defending Montana to the extent that they are - yes it's a far cheaper media market than Texas, for obvious reasons, but the arithmetic doesn't work for Tester - he has only once polled over 50% (in the 2018 'blue wave') and local factors like the Keystone XL pipeline helped Tester that year. If TX is as close as some polls suggest, it's ripe for a Democratic onslaught, the likes of which Republicans haven't seen in decades in the state. It's been 30 years since a Democrat won there of course - when Bob Bullock was re-elected Lieutenant Governor in 1994 (as George W. Bush booted out Ann Richards at gubernatorial level). It doesn’t look great for Tester at the moment but abandoning a three term incumbent to try instead winning a race where the Democrats haven’t won statewide since 1994 as you mentioned would be a pretty huge gamble The maths aren’t great from any angle but as mentioned by someone else recently in another thread I think it’s a possible price for failing in winnable races over the previous couple of cycles
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Post by sanders on Sept 13, 2024 13:50:56 GMT
Texas could bee Democrats' 50th seat. Currently, Lisa Murkowski is looking like she'll be the most powerful person in Washington in January (since we're heading for 51-49 Senate with Republicans in the majority. Democrats need to decide if it's worth defending Montana to the extent that they are - yes it's a far cheaper media market than Texas, for obvious reasons, but the arithmetic doesn't work for Tester - he has only once polled over 50% (in the 2018 'blue wave') and local factors like the Keystone XL pipeline helped Tester that year. If TX is as close as some polls suggest, it's ripe for a Democratic onslaught, the likes of which Republicans haven't seen in decades in the state. It's been 30 years since a Democrat won there of course - when Bob Bullock was re-elected Lieutenant Governor in 1994 (as George W. Bush booted out Ann Richards at gubernatorial level). It doesn’t look great for Tester at the moment but abandoning a three term incumbent to try instead winning a race where the Democrats haven’t won statewide since 1994 as you mentioned would be a pretty huge gamble The maths aren’t great from any angle but as mentioned by someone else recently in another thread I think it’s a possible price for failing in winnable races over the previous couple of cycles They really should’ve been able to take out Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. Had they fielded WI-3 Congressman Ron Kind, they could’ve pulled it off, since he had a proven track record of winning Trump voters in his right-trending seat.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 13, 2024 15:04:48 GMT
Americans have been eating hot dogs for years. But as soon as the Haitians want to do it it’s suddenly problematic?? Depends how...😉 It has led to some hilarious memes though
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 13, 2024 21:08:23 GMT
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Post by jimboo2017 on Sept 13, 2024 22:32:02 GMT
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 13, 2024 22:41:47 GMT
The guy posting these is not impartial, and it’s a long old thread, but goodness me, the clips from Trump this afternoon in Los Angeles are an interesting watch…
Also, why is he holding rallies in California?? Last time I checked it didn’t seem in play for him.
I don’t want this become solely a thread of X posts, but it is hard to resist sometimes. I may try to do better.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 14, 2024 4:48:55 GMT
It doesn’t look great for Tester at the moment but abandoning a three term incumbent to try instead winning a race where the Democrats haven’t won statewide since 1994 as you mentioned would be a pretty huge gamble The maths aren’t great from any angle but as mentioned by someone else recently in another thread I think it’s a possible price for failing in winnable races over the previous couple of cycles They really should’ve been able to take out Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. Had they fielded WI-3 Congressman Ron Kind, they could’ve pulled it off, since he had a proven track record of winning Trump voters in his right-trending seat. In 2020 they missed out on North Carolina, Iowa and Maine, races they raised huge amounts of money for and polling tended to favour them, at least in spells. The two Georgia run offs managed to make up for a pretty underwhelming Senate campaign that year
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Post by sanders on Sept 14, 2024 5:53:12 GMT
This is excellent campaign finance analysis. Here's how the system got fucked. Strong words, but it's demonstrably true. Blame John Roberts and Sam Alito, basically. Campaign donations are essentially free speech. That's what Citizens Untied (2010) means. If Harris wins, it might change. Still, a GOP senate could frustrate. Clarence Thomas turns 80 in 2028. Kamala Harris may replace him then. Trump got incredibly lucky with SCOTUS. Three picks is almost unheard of. Especially in one White House term.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 14, 2024 10:10:29 GMT
They really should’ve been able to take out Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. Had they fielded WI-3 Congressman Ron Kind, they could’ve pulled it off, since he had a proven track record of winning Trump voters in his right-trending seat. In 2020 they missed out on North Carolina, Iowa and Maine, races they raised huge amounts of money for and polling tended to favour them, at least in spells. The two Georgia run offs managed to make up for a pretty underwhelming Senate campaign that year Collins was always favourite in Maine, no? Democrats might fancy it once she retires. Iowa is moving away from the Dems long term not unlike West Virginia (even if not as dramatically) North Carolina is the inverse Nevada - almost always close, but the same party usually wins.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 14, 2024 10:31:56 GMT
In 2020 they missed out on North Carolina, Iowa and Maine, races they raised huge amounts of money for and polling tended to favour them, at least in spells. The two Georgia run offs managed to make up for a pretty underwhelming Senate campaign that year Collins was always favourite in Maine, no? Democrats might fancy it once she retires. Iowa is moving away from the Dems long term not unlike West Virginia (even if not as dramatically) North Carolina is the inverse Nevada - almost always close, but the same party usually wins. Yes, the Democrats threw the kitchen sink at Collins but a) their star candidate turned out to be an underwhelming performer on the stump and Collins is still strong in the D+9 CD1. I agree though Collins is about the only Republican who could win a Senate race, and it seems an open secret that Jared Golden from CD2 is positioning himself as her successor. I’m not sure about Iowa, there should be strength in and around Des Moines, particularly as the universities are growing, and only CD4 is solid Republican on the Cook Partisan Voting Index compared to R+3 in CD1, R+4 in CD2 and R+3 in CD3, so not insurmountable certainly in a wave year. North Carolina is one of those States that will flip eventually, Robin Hayes a former Congressman and Chairman of the State GOP who was convicted of bribery and pardoned by Trump has said it’s only Trump bringing out previous non voters keeping the State from turning Democratic.
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Post by sanders on Sept 14, 2024 10:41:30 GMT
Maine will flip in 2026 possibly. It’s only Collins keeping it GOP. Pine Tree State Republicans have nobody else. Who else would they run? Paul LePage? Bruce Poliquin? They wouldn’t win. It’s s very liberal state. Jared Golden could win the seat. He’s the Mary Peltola of Maine. Or she is the Jared Golden of Alaska. By 2026, Golden will likely be a four-term incumbent and Susan Collins might retire.
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johng
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Post by johng on Sept 14, 2024 10:53:19 GMT
In 2020 they missed out on North Carolina, Iowa and Maine, races they raised huge amounts of money for and polling tended to favour them, at least in spells. The two Georgia run offs managed to make up for a pretty underwhelming Senate campaign that year Collins was always favourite in Maine, no? Democrats might fancy it once she retires. Iowa is moving away from the Dems long term not unlike West Virginia (even if not as dramatically) North Carolina is the inverse Nevada - almost always close, but the same party usually wins.
Polling in Maine was actually pretty strong for the Dems. Collins didn't lead a poll from summer until election day. It certainly seemed like they could take the seat. Obviously the polls were quite far off as Collins won by over 8 points. But it's also fair to say that the Dem candidate's campaign had many misses and she wasn't the star candidate they had hoped for.
Iowa was another big polling miss IMO. Polls showed the race pretty neck and neck throughout the campaign. Ernst ended up winning by over six points. You're right that the state is moving away from the Dems at speed and even state contests are now seemingly out of reach for Dem candidates.
It's fair to say both of these were misses, but were probably out of reach for the Dems in normal circumstances too.
North Carolina was the real miss of the 2020 campaign. Cunningham could and should have won, but a poor campaign by him and the Dems torpedoed his campaign on a night when Roy Cooper won the governor's race quite comfortably.
It wasn't all bad. The tight race in AZ, and two stunning wins in Georgia allowed them to take control in the Senate. But could have been better and they are going to hurt this time around because of it.
2022 also had more hits than misses, but Johnson in Wisconsin was beatable. Again a poor campaign and a not ideal candidate hurt their campaign.
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Post by sanders on Sept 14, 2024 11:14:04 GMT
Collins was always favourite in Maine, no? Democrats might fancy it once she retires. Iowa is moving away from the Dems long term not unlike West Virginia (even if not as dramatically) North Carolina is the inverse Nevada - almost always close, but the same party usually wins.
Polling in Maine was actually pretty strong for the Dems. Collins didn't lead a poll from summer until election day. It certainly seemed like they could take the seat. Obviously the polls were quite far off as Collins won by over 8 points. But it's also fair to say that the Dem candidate's campaign had many misses and she wasn't the star candidate they had hoped for.
Iowa was another big polling miss IMO. Polls showed the race pretty neck and neck throughout the campaign. Ernst ended up winning by over six points. You're right that the state is moving away from the Dems at speed and even state contests are now seemingly out of reach for Dem candidates.
It's fair to say both of these were misses, but were probably out of reach for the Dems in normal circumstances too.
North Carolina was the real miss of the 2020 campaign. Cunningham could and should have won, but a poor campaign by him and the Dems torpedoed his campaign on a night when Roy Cooper won the governor's race quite comfortably.
It wasn't all bad. The tight race in AZ, and two stunning wins in Georgia allowed them to take control in the Senate. But could have been better and they are going to hurt this time around because of it.
2022 also had more hits than misses, but Johnson in Wisconsin was beatable. Again a poor campaign and a not ideal candidate hurt their campaign.
North Caroline federal races are different.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Sept 14, 2024 13:10:16 GMT
North Caroline federal races are different. Not really.
It isn't a state where the Dems/ GOP do much better at state level than federal.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 14, 2024 13:45:49 GMT
North Caroline federal races are different. Not really.
It isn't a state where the Dems/ GOP do much better at state level than federal.
Actually quite difficult to gauge given the amount of gerrymandering that happens there, but the Democrats do look like getting a third straight gubernatorial term.
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Post by sanders on Sept 14, 2024 14:00:57 GMT
North Caroline federal races are different. Not really.
It isn't a state where the Dems/ GOP do much better at state level than federal.
The polls would suggest there are quite clearly people who will vote for Trump but not the Republican gubernatorial nominee. The governorship is in many ways the inverse of the presidential results, with 2012 being the first GOP win in a while, and the only one in living memoir. Democrats Easley won the state in 2000 and 2004 despite significant Bush victories in the Tar Heel State. That no longer happens in Senate races with 2020 being a prime example, which is why Cunningham's loss was about what you'd expect, although I didn't have it on my bingo card that the Republicans would get closer in Michigan's Senate race than the Democrats would in North Carolina. Anyway, this year feels different, with a lot of changes in the state since 2020, and an energised Democratic base in the state we haven't seen the likes of since 2008. Cunningham was a flawed candidate and I too hastily wrote off Democrats' chinches of winning the upper chamber because of it. I was wrong about that, but it clearly doomed Cunningham. They could win that seat in 2026 with Cooper, but the national environment may be worse.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 14, 2024 14:06:01 GMT
sanders , did you really support Trump in 2016? If so, what are your fundamental values that make up you. What drives you. Don't get me wrong, unless you have a heart of stone, it was hilarious to see Hiliary go down, but that's different to actual support for someone as fundamentally fash as the Donald.
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Post by sanders on Sept 14, 2024 14:15:30 GMT
sanders , did you really support Trump in 2016? If so, what are your fundamental values that make up you. What drives you. Don't get me wrong, unless you have a heart of stone, it was hilarious to see Hiliary go down, but that's different to actual support for someone as fundamentally fash as the Donald. 1) I bought into the economic populism; 2) I thought he'd give the UK a decent trade deal; 3) I didn't like the Clintons; 4) I was angry about what I perceived to be DNC interference in the primary debate between Clinton and Sanders, with Debbie Wasserman Schultz's connivance. He's got a lot worse, rhetorically and policy wise since 2016. I just thought it would be 'Brexit+++' and I had supported Brexit.
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