|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 5:29:16 GMT
No-one would ever read that headline for the simple fact that “anti-Palestinian racism” is just an unheard of concept in St. Louis. What does that phrase even mean?? St. Louis has many problems, but the Israel/Gaza conflict is categorically not one of them. Bush unnecessarily inserting herself into this issue is a key reason why she lost the Primary yesterday. That's certainly one view, but you could flip it around and say AIPAC unnecessarily (?) inserting itself in Missouri elections was a key reason she lost. Maybe, just maybe, they should be marked down as a foreign lobbying organisation. Imagine if a pro-China organisation spent $9 million to oust her, or a pro-Iranian or pro-Saudi PAC. The conversation would be quite different. I think a lot of Dems self-censor to a degree because they don't want to piss off AIPAC. I have it on good authority that John Fetterman bent the knee in 2022 so that AIPAC and DMFI didn't endorse Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania. Again, I'm at pains to point out my opposition to that kind of spending isn't specific to AIPAC (and I hope and pray Citizens United v FEC gets struck down in my lifetime). Let's hope Roberts and Thomas retire from SCOTUS. Back to the race for POTUS, the latest poll has Kamala Harris ahead b 8% (eight per cent). For context, Obama won by 7% in 2008, and Clinton won by 9% in 1996. Crudely applying this as some sort of UNS (lol), in this scenario, the Democrats flip North Carolina and Florida, and get within striking distance of Texas (!) - 349 EVs. Top banter. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,321 
|
Post by stb12 on Aug 8, 2024 7:37:45 GMT
Where is the 8% poll from? That sounds a bit unlikely at this stage even with current momentum
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,321
|
Post by stb12 on Aug 8, 2024 7:39:18 GMT
Remember: when journalists ask questions, the answer is generally "No". Could it be, shock horror, that Walz was just the better candidate? As mentioned before, I have no ill will towards Shapiro as a person and a state politician and I sincerely hope he gets re-elected in 2026. Walz is great though. As noted many times the VP choice historically has limited impact, whether it’s seen as a good or bad choice will come down to hindsight with the election result and how narrow it is especially in the key states |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 7:49:58 GMT
Where is the 8% poll from? That sounds a bit unlikely at this stage even with current momentum The 8% Kamala Harris lead is Marquette polling. 538 ranks them third in their list of top pollsters so they should be taken (somewhat) seriously, IMHO. What's amazing and trailblazing about this poll (albeit it's a snippet and a snapshot of the situation) is this is the sort of bounce one expects post-convention, not beforehand. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 8, 2024 9:17:34 GMT
Where is the 8% poll from? That sounds a bit unlikely at this stage even with current momentum The 8% Kamala Harris lead is Marquette polling. 538 ranks them third in their list of top pollsters so they should be taken (somewhat) seriously, IMHO. What's amazing and trailblazing about this poll (albeit it's a snippet and a snapshot of the situation) is this is the sort of bounce one expects post-convention, not beforehand. It's a bit of an odd one though - fiedlwork already a week old, and Marquette (a Wisconsin university) surveyed Wisconsin alongside, and only had Harris up 1. Up 1 in WI and 8 nationally seems off. |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 9:41:43 GMT
The 8% Kamala Harris lead is Marquette polling. 538 ranks them third in their list of top pollsters so they should be taken (somewhat) seriously, IMHO. What's amazing and trailblazing about this poll (albeit it's a snippet and a snapshot of the situation) is this is the sort of bounce one expects post-convention, not beforehand. It's a bit of an odd one though - fiedlwork already a week old, and Marquette (a Wisconsin university) surveyed Wisconsin alongside, and only had Harris up 1. Up 1 in WI and 8 nationally seems off. Yes I agree even though Wis. is trending right long-term. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Aug 8, 2024 10:02:04 GMT
The 8% Kamala Harris lead is Marquette polling. 538 ranks them third in their list of top pollsters so they should be taken (somewhat) seriously, IMHO. What's amazing and trailblazing about this poll (albeit it's a snippet and a snapshot of the situation) is this is the sort of bounce one expects post-convention, not beforehand. It's a bit of an odd one though - fiedlwork already a week old, and Marquette (a Wisconsin university) surveyed Wisconsin alongside, and only had Harris up 1. Up 1 in WI and 8 nationally seems off. Here’s their report: law.marquette.edu/poll/ |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 8, 2024 10:19:28 GMT
It's a bit of an odd one though - fiedlwork already a week old, and Marquette (a Wisconsin university) surveyed Wisconsin alongside, and only had Harris up 1. Up 1 in WI and 8 nationally seems off. Yes I agree even though Wis. is trending right long-term. Really? |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 10:49:34 GMT
Yes I agree even though Wis. is trending right long-term. Really? I think so. Bush won by 2% in 2004 but lost WI by <1 and then in 2016 Trump lost the popular vote by 2 points and won Wisconsin by <1. The state last voted Republican in 1984 before Trump won it. The driftless area in line with Iowa and Illinois’s 17th all went to DJT with WI in 2016. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Aug 8, 2024 10:52:21 GMT
I noticed that they were pronouncing Walz as “walls” not “waltz”
|
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 10:58:57 GMT
I noticed that they were pronouncing Walz as “walls” not “waltz” Walls? That is ice cream lmao. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 8, 2024 11:18:02 GMT
I think so. Bush won by 2% in 2004 but lost WI by <1 and then in 2016 Trump lost the popular vote by 2 points and won Wisconsin by <1. The state last voted Republican in 1984 before Trump won it. The driftless area in line with Iowa and Illinois’s 17th all went to DJT with WI in 2016. Starting from 2000, and putting aside the somewhat sui generis Obama elections, the margins (Dem +ve) have been +0.22, +0.38, -0.77, +0.63. Not much of a pattern, other than being highly marginal. At Governor level, since 2006 (2002 had a big Libertarian vote which skews things), it's been +7.4, -6.77, -5.67, +1.1, +3.4. A bit swingier, but doesn't look to be getting redder. At the last Senate election in 2022, Ron Johnson barely held on, underperforming the Republicans nationally. And at this year's election, Tammy Baldwin is a very strong favourite. In the state legislature, the only thing allowing the Republicans to hold a big lead is an incredibly aggressive gerrymander which has been repealed by the state court (which also went Dem last year), so the Dems will be favoured to make significant gains. It's undoubtedly a battleground state, but to create an assumption that the state as a whole is getting redder on one region of the state which is relatively low population, while ignoring the high population areas which are following the normal pattern of becoming bluer, is a bit wobbly. |
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Aug 8, 2024 11:35:12 GMT
The Cook Political Report have moved Arizona. Nevada and Georgia from Lean Republican to Toss up.
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Aug 8, 2024 12:00:16 GMT
The Cook Political Report have moved Arizona. Nevada and Georgia from Lean Republican to Toss up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball already had AZ and NV as toss up but has moved GA into that group as well from Leans Republican. He’s also moved Minnesota and New Hampshire from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. |
|
|
|
Post by mrpastelito on Aug 8, 2024 12:16:31 GMT
No-one would ever read that headline for the simple fact that “anti-Palestinian racism” is just an unheard of concept in St. Louis. What does that phrase even mean?? St. Louis has many problems, but the Israel/Gaza conflict is categorically not one of them. Bush unnecessarily inserting herself into this issue is a key reason why she lost the Primary yesterday. That's certainly one view, but you could flip it around and say AIPAC unnecessarily (?) inserting itself in Missouri elections was a key reason she lost. Maybe, just maybe, they should be marked down as a foreign lobbying organisation. Imagine if a pro-China organisation spent $9 million to oust her, or a pro-Iranian or pro-Saudi PAC. The conversation would be quite different. If only there was some legislation to prevent this kind of meddling - I don't know, something like a "Foreign Agents Registration Act" maybe? But as we can see from the example of Georgia, this kind of thing is very, very bad and incompatible with Western values. |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 12:48:06 GMT
The Cook Political Report have moved Arizona. Nevada and Georgia from Lean Republican to Toss up. Republicans over-represented in Nevada polling? Why are pollsters so often wrong about the Silver State, like they were in Senate level in 2022. Nevada was Lean GOP? Nah. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Aug 8, 2024 12:51:31 GMT
The Cook Political Report have moved Arizona. Nevada and Georgia from Lean Republican to Toss up. Republicans over-represented in Nevada polling? Why are pollsters so often wrong about the Silver State, like they were in Senate level in 2022. NV was a toss-up? Maybe. Jon Ralston argues Nevada is almost impossible to poll because the Clark County Hispanic community are very distrustful of pollsters because many don’t come from functioning democracies where telling somebody how you’re going to vote can be fatal. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 8, 2024 13:29:57 GMT
Republicans over-represented in Nevada polling? Why are pollsters so often wrong about the Silver State, like they were in Senate level in 2022. NV was a toss-up? Maybe. Jon Ralston argues Nevada is almost impossible to poll because the Clark County Hispanic community are very distrustful of pollsters because many don’t come from functioning democracies where telling somebody how you’re going to vote can be fatal. And when it comes to Nevada, Ralston knows what he's talking about. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 8, 2024 14:21:12 GMT
Darn. 538 have just added a Hart poll (JUl 31-Aug 4, presumably only just released) which is Trump +2. Without that, we'd be able to say that we'd had 23 polls without a Trump lead.
RCP have been very quick to add that Trump +2 poll, but I won't be holding my breath for them to add the Marquette +8 or even the +6 - although they have added the contemporaneous Marquette +4, I wonder why they chose that one? They still haven't added the RMG Harris +5 from a *week* ago.
The Marquette ones also sow the LV versus RV gap I've been banging on about - Dems doing 2points better with LV than RV. Enthusiasm gap was always going to show.
|
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 15:56:22 GMT
Jon Ralston argues Nevada is almost impossible to poll because the Clark County Hispanic community are very distrustful of pollsters because many don’t come from functioning democracies where telling somebody how you’re going to vote can be fatal. And when it comes to Nevada, Ralston knows what he's talking about. Indeed. He's the only one, in my humble opinion, that Vote UK forum denizens should listen about Nevada. He got 2022 spot on as I understand it. RCP is a bit crap. |
|
