iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,391 
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Post by iain on Aug 6, 2024 20:35:03 GMT
Shapiro took a very similar line on the pro-Palestine protestors as most mainstream Democrats. I simply can't imagine why the progressive left have signalled him out for particular criticism. Who else compared them to the KKK? No one. Just Shapiro. No he didn’t, unless you are going out of your way to twist his words. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 6, 2024 20:44:04 GMT
Who else compared them to the KKK? No one. Just Shapiro. No he didn’t, unless you are going out of your way to twist his words. He’s just less experienced than Walz. You can criticise politicians who have bouts of foot in mouth disease. Kamala Harris wanted executive experience and from where I’m sat, Walz had a fuck tonne. I’m working backwards from my conclusion that Walz or Beshear were the best candidates for the job? It’s important for Shapiro to be laser-focused on PA because 1) Democrats are on the cusp of unified control of the state this year and 2) he can and, I believe will, win a historic fourth term for Penn. Dems at governor level in ‘26. |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 6, 2024 21:02:43 GMT
I mean, we all know Trump is deranged, but has he excelled himself here?!?
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 6, 2024 21:07:45 GMT
I mean, we all know Trump is deranged, but has he excelled himself here?!? I’m most shocked that he doesn’t know how to spell either Kamala or Barack. |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 6, 2024 21:12:14 GMT
tbf if it looks more and more like he's going to lose as election day looms, his meltdowns will become exponentially more mindblowing  |
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Post by sanders on Aug 6, 2024 21:16:34 GMT
I mean, we all know Trump is deranged, but has he excelled himself here?!? The dumb motherfucker could have had Marco Rubio as VP… |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 6, 2024 21:26:45 GMT
Even people fond of using "Bliar" or "Keith" soon got bored. He's constantly using nicknames like they're going out of fashion.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,643
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Post by Jack on Aug 6, 2024 21:26:54 GMT
I mean, we all know Trump is deranged, but has he excelled himself here?!? I’m most shocked that he doesn’t know how to spell either Kamala or Barack. |
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 425
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Post by xenon on Aug 6, 2024 21:27:07 GMT
I mean, we all know Trump is deranged, but has he excelled himself here?!? I’m most shocked that he doesn’t know how to spell either Kamala or Barack. Apart from that his spelling and grammar is actually surprisingly good as far as garbled ramblings go. Things like cryin' and U.S. demonstrate a lot more thought goes into these tweets than might be apparent. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 6, 2024 21:59:58 GMT
Even people fond of using "Bliar" or "Keith" soon got bored. He's constantly using nicknames like they're going out of fashion. At least Trump hasn't picked up 'Hoeris' as a nickname which some right wing commentators have used. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 6, 2024 22:12:11 GMT
I must confess to being a little baffled by Nate Silver these days. In today's update, he refers to a 'mediocre set of state polls' for Harris, linking to a set of ten battleground state polls from Redfield & Wilton, as follows (ranked by Harris' margin):
+7 New Mexico
+5 Minnesota
+1 Arizona
== Nevada
== Wisconsin
-1 Michigan
-2 Georgia
-2 Pennsylvania
-3 North Carolina
-6 Florida
On the bare figures, maybe he's right: Biden won all of those except NC and FL. But the movements (+ towards Harris) are:
na New Mexico
+2 Minnesota
+4 Arizona
+2 Nevada
== Wisconsin
+2 Michigan
+3 Georgia
+2 Pennsylvania
== North Carolina
+2 Florida
So a set of polls that in a week have flipped AZ back to the Dems, moved NV to a tie, and put GA and PA within the MoE is 'mediocre'? Hmmm.
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Post by sanders on Aug 6, 2024 22:18:43 GMT
I must confess to being a little baffled by Nate Silver these days. In today's update, he refers to a 'mediocre set of state polls' for Harris, linking to a set of ten battleground state polls from Redfield & Wilton, as follows (ranked by Harris' margin): +7 New Mexico +5 Minnesota +1 Arizona == Nevada == Wisconsin -1 Michigan -2 Georgia -2 Pennsylvania -3 North Carolina -6 Florida On the bare figures, maybe he's right: Biden won all of those except NC and FL. But the movements (+ towards Harris) are: na New Mexico +2 Minnesota +4 Arizona +2 Nevada == Wisconsin +2 Michigan +3 Georgia +2 Pennsylvania == North Carolina +2 Florida So a set of polls that in a week have flipped AZ back to the Dems, moved NV to a tie, and put GA and PA within the MoE is 'mediocre'? Hmmm. Quite a tantalus. I think AZ and NV are trending in opposite directions, along with much of the sun belt and rust belt too. I think GA says with the Democrats. |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 6, 2024 23:24:37 GMT
Things you would never have thought needed to be said in the pre-Trump era #274 NB: I know its a parody account before anyone points it out  |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,286
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Post by maxque on Aug 6, 2024 23:36:32 GMT
I think Walz (no T by the way) makes it harder for Republicans to credibly argue it’s an ultra left wing ticket - one potential negative for Walz on the Progressive wing that may help amongst non-MAGA Republicans is that for most of his House elections he was endorsed by the NRA - so I have always suspected that he would appeal to moderate women whom Biden was losing support amongst, and is a good counterbalance amongst the anti-Trump Republicans who will see him as a moderate, common sense influence. He may also reassure the small-ish, but in some areas of Northern Virginia for example, important bloc for whom defence and national security are important Walz ran as a moderate in his House days but moved to the left when he ran for Governor and has continued to move in that direction. In his 2022 re-election he performed pretty much as a generic Minnesota Democrat would have and lost his old house district by 7 points. To be fair to him, the MN DFL is pretty left-wing and picking a fight with his party (especially in a state which give a ton of power to the party/conventions like MN) isn't smart. There is no lack of bench, either, if the party wanted him replaced. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 7, 2024 3:54:44 GMT
Walz ran as a moderate in his House days but moved to the left when he ran for Governor and has continued to move in that direction. In his 2022 re-election he performed pretty much as a generic Minnesota Democrat would have and lost his old house district by 7 points. To be fair to him, the MN DFL is pretty left-wing and picking a fight with his party (especially in a state which give a ton of power to the party/conventions like MN) isn't smart. There is no lack of bench, either, if the party wanted him replaced. Agree, and Democrats only won their trifecta (unified control of Minnesota government) by one seat in 2022. He governs far more progressively than those numbers might suggest. MN DFL isn’t that left wing because the F (farmer) vote often supports candidates (or did) who are pretty pro-gun. However, the DFL have a lost a lot of more conservative crossover seats of late, like the 1st, 7th, and 8th Congressional Districts. Democrats have become a lot more geographically concentrated in MN (in Minneapolis-St Paul, Duluth, Rochester etc). The big change too has been in the suburban Twin Cities, in counties like Anoka and Carver which were solid GOP. Gov. Walz will be fucking brilliant: |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 7, 2024 7:41:02 GMT
I must confess to being a little baffled by Nate Silver these days. In today's update, he refers to a 'mediocre set of state polls' for Harris, linking to a set of ten battleground state polls from Redfield & Wilton, as follows (ranked by Harris' margin): +7 New Mexico +5 Minnesota +1 Arizona == Nevada == Wisconsin -1 Michigan -2 Georgia -2 Pennsylvania -3 North Carolina -6 Florida On the bare figures, maybe he's right: Biden won all of those except NC and FL. But the movements (+ towards Harris) are: na New Mexico +2 Minnesota +4 Arizona +2 Nevada == Wisconsin +2 Michigan +3 Georgia +2 Pennsylvania == North Carolina +2 Florida So a set of polls that in a week have flipped AZ back to the Dems, moved NV to a tie, and put GA and PA within the MoE is 'mediocre'? Hmmm. maybe the polling is mediocre not the numbers? |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 7, 2024 9:02:47 GMT
I must confess to being a little baffled by Nate Silver these days. In today's update, he refers to a 'mediocre set of state polls' for Harris, linking to a set of ten battleground state polls from Redfield & Wilton, as follows (ranked by Harris' margin): +7 New Mexico +5 Minnesota +1 Arizona == Nevada == Wisconsin -1 Michigan -2 Georgia -2 Pennsylvania -3 North Carolina -6 Florida On the bare figures, maybe he's right: Biden won all of those except NC and FL. But the movements (+ towards Harris) are: na New Mexico +2 Minnesota +4 Arizona +2 Nevada == Wisconsin +2 Michigan +3 Georgia +2 Pennsylvania == North Carolina +2 Florida So a set of polls that in a week have flipped AZ back to the Dems, moved NV to a tie, and put GA and PA within the MoE is 'mediocre'? Hmmm. maybe the polling is mediocre not the numbers? He's definitely saying that the numbers are mediocre, as he says they offset good news elsewhere. www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,796
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 7, 2024 11:16:15 GMT
Weak pick. Walz is Tim Kaine 2.0, he will be a solid VP if elected but he brings nothing to the table in terms of winning votes I can sort of buy this take as Walz was (like Kaine*) a "safer" option, but last night showed that he might have other things to contribute to the ticket. (*as was Biden with Obama really, but that one didn't work out so bad) |
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Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 2:41:44 GMT
Remember: when journalists ask questions, the answer is generally "No". Could it be, shock horror, that Walz was just the better candidate?
As mentioned before, I have no ill will towards Shapiro as a person and a state politician and I sincerely hope he gets re-elected in 2026. Walz is great though.
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 8, 2024 4:34:42 GMT
No-one would ever read that headline for the simple fact that “anti-Palestinian racism” is just an unheard of concept in St. Louis. What does that phrase even mean?? St. Louis has many problems, but the Israel/Gaza conflict is categorically not one of them. Bush unnecessarily inserting herself into this issue is a key reason why she lost the Primary yesterday.
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