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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 16, 2024 7:42:10 GMT
Right on cue, the HK stock markets are down (as a proxy for China). Vance is clearly seen as no friend of China. All European stock markets have opened down too - he's not seen as a friend to the UK, Europe and Ukraine either... I suspect the Hang Seng reaction is due to the uncertainty arising from the likely increased threat to Taiwan and thus of regional war in the event Trump and Vance are elected, rather than any concern that Vance is a threat to China. It seems the arse has fallen out of luxury which is a good China proxy... Burberry has announced it has an issue, Richemont too, and it's dragging down the others. |
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 16, 2024 8:06:02 GMT
You're comparing Iraq and Afghanistan to the Second World War?! Really?! WW2 was over in 6 years - over 2 decades later the results of our attempts to police the world are still mired in conflict. Sending in the gunboats is so 19th Century - time for a different approach. First, any attempt to imply that recent wars are remotely comparable to the Second World War is just utterly insane and hardly worth engaging with - an entire continent devastated, Japan and much of East Asia heavily damaged, 75-80 million people dead. Even in the UK, our nation impoverished for a decade, 1% of all our people dead, another 1% injured, cities bombed and severely damaged. Equating this with the Iraq or Afghan wars is, frankly, insulting to those who fought and worked through WW2. Second, you are conflating two issues: - one, is intervening , neo-con style, in other countries appropriate or effective? Most of us would agree not. - two, should we defend our democratic allies in the face of the threat from quasi-dictatorships? I'm pleased to say that most of us agree this is necessary. Until you show some signs of understanding the difference between these two questions then your opinions won't count for much with me... |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 16, 2024 8:18:23 GMT
All European stock markets have opened down too - he's not seen as a friend to the UK, Europe and Ukraine either...I suspect the Hang Seng reaction is due to the uncertainty arising from the likely increased threat to Taiwan and thus of regional war in the event Trump and Vance are elected, rather than any concern that Vance is a threat to China. Being a bit more serious about this, in Europe the stocks hit hardest are the global suppliers (especially minerals) and exporters, so I suspect the tick down yesterday (when Vance was trailed) and today (post announcement) arises from concerns around the increased likelihood of trade tariffs and restrictions i the event of a Trump/Vance win, reducing international trade and growth. And for those worried about an incipient global war, look for a series of sharp rises on the exchanges, not falls. War need large quantities of extractive products and major stockpiling which ramps prices of minerals and fuels and drives up exchanges. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 8:21:05 GMT
No I think after Crimea we need to be more hawkish. We didn't do enough to get Ukraine into NATO in 2014 and we're suffering the consequences of that damning omission. We should also push for a European Defence Force because the Americans under Trump can't be relied on and we are in serious danger of America returning to its pre-1941 isolationism stance with Trump. We also need an EU seat, succeeding France on the Permanent Five, so that the European Defence Force would hang together. We should never have let Ukraine decommission their nuclear weapons in 1991. We were so arrogant to imbue Russia with the whiggish view of history, drenched in a conceited cocacolinisation globaliser framing - how wrong we were. Source: my dad worked for the BBC and saw all of this coming.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 16, 2024 8:46:17 GMT
All this could have been avoided; Trump, Putin, the whole lot of it.
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 16, 2024 8:46:53 GMT
Being a bit more serious about this, in Europe the stocks hit hardest are the global suppliers (especially minerals) and exporters, so I suspect the tick down yesterday (when Vance was trailed) and today (post announcement) arises from concerns around the increased likelihood of trade tariffs and restrictions i the event of a Trump/Vance win, reducing international trade and growth. And for those worried about an incipient global war, look for a series of sharp rises on the exchanges, not falls. War need large quantities of extractive products and major stockpiling which ramps prices of minerals and fuels and drives up exchanges. This is not accurate - the US stock market was steady at around 140 up to the outbreak of WW2 (i.e. 1939) despite an improving economic outlook in the US, took a sharp drop when France fell, trended further downward after Pearl Harbour to around 80, and only really started to perk up after Midway and Coral Sea. It then roared ahead from late '42 until early 1947 where it peaked at ~220. In the UK there was a bear market from early 1938 until the summer of 1940, with a large drop after the fall of France, followed by a long recovery through to 1946. |
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stodge
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Post by stodge on Jul 16, 2024 8:49:26 GMT
No I think after Crimea we need to be more hawkish. We didn't do enough to get Ukraine into NATO in 2014 and we're suffering the consequences of that damning omission. We should also push for a European Defence Force because the Americans under Trump can't be relied on and we are in serious danger of America returning to its pre-1941 isolationism stance with Trump. We also need an EU seat, succeeding France on the Permanent Five, so that the European Defence Force would hang together. We should never have let Ukraine decommission their nuclear weapons in 1991. We were so arrogant to imbue Russia with the whiggish view of history, drenched in a conceited cocacolinisation globaliser framing - how wrong we were. Source: my dad worked for the BBC and saw all of this coming. Our response to the sudden and largely unexpected collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1989 was so poor it rivalled the western response to the collapse of the German and Austro-Hungarian autarchies in 1918 for ineptitude. To be fair, Margaret Thatcher probably got it about right - we rushed headlong into German re-unification, we rushed headlong into offering security guarantees for the post-Communist states of Eastern Europe and we pushed headlong into bringing them in to the economic fold through EU as a potential source of investment and cheap labour. It's little wonder the Russians eventually reacted as they did and the collapse of Yugoslavia and all that flowed from that didn't help. We could and should have taken a far more gradualist approach - support the post-Communist economies through inward investment rather than EU membership and once they reached the economic and political levels of the west and only then would they be allowed to join the EU and NATO. We could have followed a different engagement with Yeltsin and done more to support the democratic institutions which were emerging in Russia as well as supporting an economic model which didn't end up as frontier capitalism but allowed for the progressive move toward a market economy over a 25-50 year period. We squandered a real opportunity for a peaceful and prosperous 21st century with Russia part of the community of nations rather than on the outside. As to what happens now, there seems an illusion the current Russian military is analogous to the Warsaw Pact which Ukraine has shown is not the case. When you had 100 crack armoured divisions (though I think for our own reasons we overplayed the Warsaw Pact threat then as we do the Russian threat now) two hours from the Rhine you had something to worry about. Understandably, America sees a threat to its Pacific interests and we've known for decades this re-balancing of priorities was going to happen at some point. Europe has to look to its own defence and Trump is right to say we need to do more individually and collectively. I've not seen the Conservatives for example advocating a tax increase to raise funds for increased defence expenditure. The truth is when you're running a £130 billion deficit and paying £116 billion in debt interest payments you can see the problem. I suspect the new Government will initiate a defence review to see how efficiently and effectively the £66 billion is currently spent and that will hopefully unearth some substantial savings. The cold truth is whether we want to be politically part of Europe is irrelevant - geographically we are part of Europe and in strategic terms Europe's defence is our defence and vice versa. |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 16, 2024 9:00:53 GMT
Now if someone wants to assassinate Trump they'll also have to make plans for vance
Sunday was probably the last chance to keep the Democrats in by gunshot, unless Vance implodes somehow
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 9:02:01 GMT
"Ya talk shite, hen" seems appropriate. Trump will not win Arizona, IMHO.
Plus, it seems that Democrats, IMO 1) win the Senate seat; 2) take both of Arizona's legislative chambers; 3) gain Arizona's 1st and Arizona's 6th.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 16, 2024 9:03:59 GMT
All this could have been avoided; Trump, Putin, the whole lot of it. How true. It all started to go wrong in the Garden of Eden and led to the expulsion of Adam and Eve, since when everything has continued to get worse. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 16, 2024 9:08:30 GMT
And for those worried about an incipient global war, look for a series of sharp rises on the exchanges, not falls. War need large quantities of extractive products and major stockpiling which ramps prices of minerals and fuels and drives up exchanges. This is not accurate - the US stock market was steady at around 140 up to the outbreak of WW2 (i.e. 1939) despite an improving economic outlook in the US, took a sharp drop when France fell, trended further downward after Pearl Harbour to around 80, and only really started to perk up after Midway and Coral Sea. It then roared ahead from late '42 until early 1947 where it peaked at ~220. In the UK there was a bear market from early 1938 until the summer of 1940, with a large drop after the fall of France, followed by a long recovery through to 1946. Far too long ago. Much larger inventories and stockpiles then and larger stocks of war materials in place. Now we have fewer manufacturers, the concept of 'just in time', globalisation, small inventories, and far less ability to supply internally in most nations, so a need for sudden desperate order placing and acquisitions of everything. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 16, 2024 9:08:55 GMT
All this could have been avoided; Trump, Putin, the whole lot of it. How true. It all started to go wrong in the Garden of Eden and led to the expulsion of Adam and Eve, since when everything has continued to get worse. Maybe it should have been Adam and Steve from the beginning after all. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 16, 2024 9:13:12 GMT
Just seeing the picture of Trump with his bandage this morning made me wonder if "Trump's ear" is the most significant ear in world politics since Jenkins'?
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 16, 2024 9:13:45 GMT
How true. It all started to go wrong in the Garden of Eden and led to the expulsion of Adam and Eve, since when everything has continued to get worse. Maybe it should have been Adam and Steve from the beginning after all. Perhaps. And a Game of Snakes and Apples? A gay start and a much shorter history. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 16, 2024 9:22:56 GMT
Just seeing the picture of Trump with his bandage this morning made me wonder if "Trump's ear" is the most significant ear in world politics since Jenkins'? Perhaps but maybe the most significant ear generally since Van Gogh's |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 16, 2024 9:24:03 GMT
I had a few days off, came back and had six pages to read, in which I anticiapted that everyone would explain how what had occurred confirmed what they had been saying all along. And it was indeed thus.
My side employs irony and on occasion hypebole. Your side deploys dog whistles to incite violence. My side is wholly innocent and decent. Your side is a threat to democracy and consists of disgusting people. We comment in good faith and are misrepresented in bad faith. Everything would have been so much better if the actions I called for ten years ago had been enacted.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 16, 2024 9:28:55 GMT
Don't forget Jennifer's ear  |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 16, 2024 9:49:38 GMT
Don't forget Jennifer's ear "Friends, Romans, Countrymen, lend me your ears" |
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 16, 2024 9:50:31 GMT
All this could have been avoided; Trump, Putin, the whole lot of it. How true. It all started to go wrong in the Garden of Eden and led to the expulsion of Adam and Eve, since when everything has continued to get worse. Much easier... someone should have taken care of Gavrilo Princip 4 years before TB did in 1918. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 10:15:41 GMT
No. It would've been better if we had stayed out of that and not signed the Entente Cordilate or the Anglo-Russian Alliance. The Treaty of London 1839 was a meme.
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