Local Council by-elections 19th November 2020

[Tony Otim]

A bumper crop of three this week:

CLACKMANNANSHIRE UA; Clackmannanshire East (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COYNE, Denis (Conservative)
HAY, Jim (Liberal Democrats)
HUNTER, Carolynne (Labour)
LEITCH, Stephen (SNP)
ROBERTSON, Marion (Green)

Clackmannanshire East takes in Clackmannan itself and Dollar as its main settlements. This by-election was originally scheduled for 19th March, since when the Lib Dems have changed their candidate but the other 4 candidates remain unchanged.

2017: Con 1452; SNP 692, 363; Lab 706; LD 151; Grn 132
There were only very minor boundary changes in 2017 in the South West corner of the ward, near Alloa.
2012: SNP 781, 259; Con 817; Lab 745
2007: SNP 669, 420; Con 1040; Lab 951; LD 409

Marion Robertson stood here for the Greens in 2017.

Currrent Council: SNP 7; Lab 5; Con 4; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Fortissat (Ind elected as SNP resigned)
Candidates:
CALLAGHAN, Ben (Conservative)
COLE, John Arthur Henry (Liberal Democrat)
DAVIDSON, Kyle (Green)
KELLY, Peter (Labour)
QUINN, Sarah (SNP)
WILSON, Neil (UKIP)

Sept 17by: Lab 1420; A Better Britain – Unionist Party 858; SNP 761; Con 424; Ind 184; Grn 24; UKIP 18 (Lab gain from Con)
2017: Lab 1477, 363; SNP 1016, 449; Con 670; NO Referendum Maintain Union Pro-Brexit 559; Ind 509;
The ward is the SE corner of North Lanarkshire, taking in Shotts, Dykehead and part of Newmains. The 2017 boundary changes were relatively minor, taking in a bit more territory around Newmains.
2012:
2012: Lab 983, 982; Ind 981; SNP 695, 529; Con 111
2007: Lab 1596, 1125; Ind 1529, SNP 1396

So the ward went from an election where the top candidate didn’t get elected to one where the bottom candidate did. The Independent councillor from 2007 and 2012 was the unsuccessful indy in both 2017 elections. Kyle Davidson stood here for the Greens in the last by-election.

Current Council: Lab 30; SNP 29; Ind 8; Con 8; 2 vacancies





NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Thorniewood (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
AJALA, Oyebola (Conservative)
BUDD, Joseph (Independent)
CUNNINGTON, Eve (SNP)
GARDNER, Daryl (UKIP)
LOUGHRAN, Helen (Labour)
McGOWAN, Rosemary (Green)
ROBB, Colin (Liberal Democrat)

Sept 19by: Lab 1362; SNP 1202; Con 296; LD 168; Grn 46
2017: Lab 1568, 786; SNP 1460, 351; Con 519

And this is the South West corner of the authority. The 2017 boundary changes resulted in the ward losing a considerable chunk on it’s Eastern side, but in all 3 elections under STV Thorniewood has elected 2 Labour and 1 SNP councillor, although in July 2015 the SNP held a seat in a by-election on a 12% swing from Labour.

The Lib Dem and the Green stood here in the by-election last year. The UKIP candidate stood in the last Fortissat by-election.

Current Council: Lab 30; SNP 29; Ind 8; Con 8; 2 vacancies

[middleenglander]

It is reported that the Scottish Government is considering putting North and South Lanarkshire into level 4 (highest) covid lockdown next week. In which case, can the North Lanarkshire by-elections go ahead?

[Tony Otim]

Oct 27, 2020 10:11:11 GMT middleenglander said:

It is reported that the Scottish Government is considering putting North and South Lanarkshire into level 4 (highest) covid lockdown next week. In which case, can the North Lanarkshire by-elections go ahead?

Level 4 is not a complete lockdown, although comes close - (for example, places of worship and childcare remain open, unlike earlier in the year)

I suspect it would be down to the interpretation of the local authority - as I read it the restrictions wouldn't absolutely forbid it, but a lot of the building used as polling stations would probably otherwise be closed. Also polling station staff shouldn't be having face-to-face contact unless deemed as essential (now there's an interesting argument).

[maxque]

Both elections in North Lanarkshire postponed to March 4.

[yellowperil]

Do I take it Clackmannanshire is going ahead?

[ColinJ]

Nov 18, 2020 16:40:19 GMT yellowperil said:

Do I take it Clackmannanshire is going ahead?

It looks like it, Clackmannanshire is in Protection Level 3.

[andrewteale]

For the first time in eight months, we have a late Thursday night result from Clackmannanshire, East: C 1226 SNP 766 Lab 195 Grn 137 LD 69. C hold on the first count.

I wrote www.britainelects.com/2020/11/19/previewing-the-clackmannanshire-east-by-election-19-nov/

[Arthur Figgis]

C 1,226 (51.2%)
SNP 766 (32.0%)
Labour 195 (8.1%)
Green 139 (5.8%)
Lib Dem 69 (2.9%)

C elected on 1st count.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

That's a pretty good result for us all things considered.

[timrollpickering]

Dare I ask if the ballot papers were taken all the way through to a final two? Or was it a manual count or did somebody tell the machines to stop confusing people with extra rounds?

[southernliberal]

Nov 19, 2020 23:55:18 GMT timrollpickering said:

Dare I ask if the ballot papers were taken all the way through to a final two? Or was it a manual count or did somebody tell the machines to stop confusing people with extra rounds?

Once a candidate has reached the quota, they stop counting - so no, they won't have even bothered to count, even for academic reasons, what supporters of 3rd/4th/5th place parties put as their 2nd preference. 

[evergreenadam]

Nov 19, 2020 23:52:19 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

That's a pretty good result for us all things considered.

It is and a poor one for Labour.

Which Westminster constituency is this ward in?

[southernliberal]

Nov 20, 2020 0:08:48 GMT evergreenadam said:

Nov 19, 2020 23:52:19 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

That's a pretty good result for us all things considered.

It is and a poor one for Labour.

Which Westminster constituency is this ward in?

Ochil and South Perthshire

[timrollpickering]

Nov 20, 2020 0:02:28 GMT southernliberal said:

Nov 19, 2020 23:55:18 GMT timrollpickering said:

Dare I ask if the ballot papers were taken all the way through to a final two? Or was it a manual count or did somebody tell the machines to stop confusing people with extra rounds?

Once a candidate has reached the quota, they stop counting - so no, they won't have even bothered to count, even for academic reasons, what supporters of 3rd/4th/5th place parties put as their 2nd preference. 

ISTR some machine outputs including further unnecessary rounds for whatever reason.

[middleenglander]

Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire East - Conservative hold
- based on first preference votes

Party	2020 votes	2020 share	since 2017		since 2012	since 2007
Conservative	1,226	51.2%	+9.7%		+19.8%	+21.4%
SNP	766	32.0%	+1.8%		-8.0%	+0.8%
Labour	195	8.1%	-12.1%		-20.5%	-19.1%
Green	139	5.8%	+2.0%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	69	2.9%	-1.4%		from nowhere	-8.8%
Total votes	2,395		69%		92%	69%

assumes boundary changes made little difference to 2012 and 2007 figures

Swing SNP to Conservative 4% since 2017 and, less meaningful, 14% since 2012 and 10¼% since 2007

Council now SNP 7, Conservative 5, Labour 5, Independent 1

[peterl]

Gold star to Clackmannanshire for getting a result so fast. Best result for us I think since Scottish by elections resumed.

[Merseymike]

Nov 20, 2020 1:42:26 GMT middleenglander said:

Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire East - Conservative hold
- based on first preference votes

Party	2020 votes	2020 share	since 2017		since 2012	since 2007
Conservative	1,226	51.2%	+9.7%		+19.8%	+21.4%
SNP	766	32.0%	+1.8%		-8.0%	+0.8%
Labour	195	8.1%	-12.1%		-20.5%	-19.1%
Green	139	5.8%	+2.0%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	69	2.9%	-1.4%		from nowhere	-8.8%
Total votes	2,395		69%		92%	69%

assumes boundary changes made little difference to 2012 and 2007 figures

Swing SNP to Conservative 4% since 2017 and, less meaningful, 14% since 2012 and 10¼% since 2007

Council now SNP 7, Conservative 5, Labour 5, Independent 1

Couldn't really get a clearer example of the effect of lines on maps as an issue
I wonder what the referendum results were in this ward with regard to independence? And whether this ward would clearly vote for the union?

[Deleted]

Really good Tory result in Scotland. The Ross effect?

[yellowperil]

Nov 20, 2020 7:26:29 GMT Merseymike said:

Nov 20, 2020 1:42:26 GMT middleenglander said:

Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire East - Conservative hold
- based on first preference votes

Party	2020 votes	2020 share	since 2017		since 2012	since 2007
Conservative	1,226	51.2%	+9.7%		+19.8%	+21.4%
SNP	766	32.0%	+1.8%		-8.0%	+0.8%
Labour	195	8.1%	-12.1%		-20.5%	-19.1%
Green	139	5.8%	+2.0%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	69	2.9%	-1.4%		from nowhere	-8.8%
Total votes	2,395		69%		92%	69%

assumes boundary changes made little difference to 2012 and 2007 figures

Swing SNP to Conservative 4% since 2017 and, less meaningful, 14% since 2012 and 10¼% since 2007

Council now SNP 7, Conservative 5, Labour 5, Independent 1

Couldn't really get a clearer example of the effect of lines on maps as an issue
I wonder what the referendum results were in this ward with regard to independence? And whether this ward would clearly vote for the union?

I should make it clear I am not happy with this result, nor did I see it coming,  as my prediction on the competition thread reveals all too painfully. I have to say though that I don't think this result can be dismissed  as just a lines on the map issue, even if you look at the shape of the ward on the map and it immediately invokes the ghost of Mr Mander.  It has to be said that the SNP has won here in the past and the Tory did rather outperform their recent record in the ward, even if this ward maybe has a bit of a natural longterm Tory lean. It may be down to local issues that I know nothing about from Kent, the personalities or the campaigning abilities of the local candidates, or it may be the first signs of a Ross recovery and of national significance in terms of party trends. I suspect its more the former than the latter, but who am I to tell?

[J.G.Harston]

Nov 20, 2020 1:42:26 GMT middleenglander said:

Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire East - Conservative hold
- based on first preference votes
...
Council now SNP 7, Conservative 5, Labour 5, Independent 1

18 members? That makes it a parish council doesn't it?

(ducks, runs away)