Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 20, 2020 10:29:44 GMT
Couldn't really get a clearer example of the effect of lines on maps as an issue I wonder what the referendum results were in this ward with regard to independence? And whether this ward would clearly vote for the union? I should make it clear I am not happy with this result, nor did I see it coming, as my prediction on the competition thread reveals all too painfully. I have to say though that I don't think this result can be dismissed as just a lines on the map issue, even if you look at the shape of the ward on the map and it immediately invokes the ghost of Mr Mander. It has to be said that the SNP has won here in the past and the Tory did rather outperform their recent record in the ward, even if this ward maybe has a bit of a natural longterm Tory lean. It may be down to local issues that I know nothing about from Kent, the personalities or the campaigning abilities of the local candidates, or it may be the first signs of a Ross recovery and of national significance in terms of party trends. I suspect its more the former than the latter, but who am I to tell? Seems clear that unionist and nationalist votes have lined up behind their primary advocates. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2020 11:22:20 GMT
If the swing in Clackmannanshire East is repeated across Scotland in the Holyrood elections next May the Tories would gain Perthshire South & Kinross-shire.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 20, 2020 11:47:46 GMT
If the swing in Clackmannanshire East is repeated next May the Tories would gain Perthshire South & Kinross-shire. Interesting but rather meaningless as this ward is in the seat of Clackmannanshire and Dunblane, not Perthshire south and Kinross-shire. But neither the less This result is very good for us. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 20, 2020 11:49:11 GMT
If the swing in Clackmannanshire East is repeated next May the Tories would gain Perthshire South & Kinross-shire. Do you mean across the whole constituency? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2020 12:09:40 GMT
If the swing in Clackmannanshire East is repeated next May the Tories would gain Perthshire South & Kinross-shire. Interesting but rather meaningless as this ward is in the seat of Clackmannanshire and Dunblane, not Perthshire south and Kinross-shire. But neither the less This result is very good for us. It does make me more bullish about the Tories in seats they notionally won last December like Banffshire and Moray. Tory vote holding up well. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2020 13:18:21 GMT
This was pretty much a straight move of about 10% from Labour to Tory with the SNP little changed, even in the last few years that has been pretty unusual.
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Post by robert1 on Nov 20, 2020 13:57:44 GMT
I posted the below on the Scottish Polls thread recently.
We will know more when (as the media would have it) Scotland's Super Thursday's results are in, but it isn't looking hopeful for Labour on the basis of the 3 recent by-elections. Taking 2017 as the base, when the Tories with Ruth Davidson were in full flow, they show:- SNP Con Lab LD Grn Aberdeenshire +10.6 +0.8 -4.7 -9.5 Aberdeen + 6.7 - 1.3 -5.3 -1.6 +1.7 Edinburgh + 1.8 - 4.7 -7.2 +4.2 +4.1 Clacks + 1.8 +9.7 -12.1 -1.4 +2.0It would appear that only the SNP and Greens can be uniformly content with recent figures, with Labour the continual loser. The trends appear to continue..... 2 more follow in Perth a week later........ I'm willing to suggest that in the long run the propects for the Greens in Scotland are improving.
I have inserted the latest figures and one observation in bold. Others can judge for themselves.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 20, 2020 17:08:25 GMT
I posted the below on the Scottish Polls thread recently.
We will know more when (as the media would have it) Scotland's Super Thursday's results are in, but it isn't looking hopeful for Labour on the basis of the 3 recent by-elections. Taking 2017 as the base, when the Tories with Ruth Davidson were in full flow, they show:- SNP Con Lab LD Grn Aberdeenshire +10.6 +0.8 -4.7 -9.5 Aberdeen + 6.7 - 1.3 -5.3 -1.6 +1.7 Edinburgh + 1.8 - 4.7 -7.2 +4.2 +4.1 Clacks + 1.8 +9.7 -12.1 -1.4 +2.0It would appear that only the SNP and Greens can be uniformly content with recent figures, with Labour the continual loser. The trends appear to continue..... 2 more follow in Perth a week later........ I'm willing to suggest that in the long run the propects for the Greens in Scotland are improving.
I have inserted the latest figures and one observation in bold. Others can judge for themselves.
Not enough evidence yet, but something of a rural-urban thing - Conservatives holding up and even increasing in rural wards but falling back in the cities. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 20, 2020 17:13:28 GMT
I don't think the Greens can be happy, it is a miserly increase at a time that should be an open goal for a meaningless protest vote. Labours worries are such that we are in danger of missing the fact that LDs are actually consistently in existential risk territory. No matter how woeful the SNP and Tories are as each others governments and oppositions, they are gaining votes. Bewildering. The public either approve of their handling of the pandemic or even more astonishingly, the pandemic is not what people are voting on. You never do think the Greens can be happy though😉. Whatever the result your analysis is always that it's bad for the Greens and Lib Dems. Strictly speaking the Tories didn't gain votes and neither did the SNP. The Greens were the only ones who got numerically more votes than in 2017. That said, it's a very good result for the Tories who should definitely be targeting the Labour seat in the ward. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 21, 2020 20:11:21 GMT
The don't have parish councils in Scotland. (Just saying).
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 21, 2020 20:13:34 GMT
The don't have parish councils in Scotland. (Just saying). They do have community councils though, which have even less power. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 21, 2020 20:14:58 GMT
The don't have parish councils in Scotland. (Just saying). Just the one in Holyrood. |
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Post by justin124 on Nov 21, 2020 20:15:36 GMT
No obvious reason for Labour voters to vote tactically there in terms of first preferences . Voters so inclined would have achieved the same thing by voting Con or SNP as a second preference.
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 22, 2020 17:15:42 GMT
The don't have parish councils in Scotland. (Just saying). They do have community councils though, which have even less power. Very considerably less power not least because they have no resources. Town Councils in England can do lots of things if they really want to, particularly if they have supportive principal councils. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 22, 2020 19:01:19 GMT
They do have community councils though, which have even less power. Very considerably less power not least because they have no resources. Town Councils in England can do lots of things if they really want to, particularly if they have supportive principal councils. Indeed the primary purpose of community councils seems to be to stop the local busybodies doing any real harm, which is a very noble purpose  |
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Post by philipgraves on Nov 24, 2020 13:00:55 GMT
I should make it clear I am not happy with this result, nor did I see it coming, as my prediction on the competition thread reveals all too painfully. I have to say though that I don't think this result can be dismissed as just a lines on the map issue, even if you look at the shape of the ward on the map and it immediately invokes the ghost of Mr Mander. It has to be said that the SNP has won here in the past and the Tory did rather outperform their recent record in the ward, even if this ward maybe has a bit of a natural longterm Tory lean. It may be down to local issues that I know nothing about from Kent, the personalities or the campaigning abilities of the local candidates, or it may be the first signs of a Ross recovery and of national significance in terms of party trends. I suspect its more the former than the latter, but who am I to tell? Seems clear that unionist and nationalist votes have lined up behind their primary advocates. It's quite a strong Tory area even though the rest of Clacks. was always SNP-Lab. Dollar was Tory under FPTP in 2003. The Tories seem to be holding up very well in their strong areas in Scotland such as here and in D&G, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Borders etc even as they go backwards in Edinburgh and working class SNP-Lab areas of the central belt. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 24, 2020 14:10:23 GMT
Seems clear that unionist and nationalist votes have lined up behind their primary advocates. It's quite a strong Tory area even though the rest of Clacks. was always SNP-Lab. Dollar was Tory under FPTP in 2003. The Tories seem to be holding up very well in their strong areas in Scotland such as here and in D&G, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Borders etc even as they go backwards in Edinburgh and working class SNP-Lab areas of the central belt. Certainly. But the Labour vote has declined and it appears the Tory vote has increased by equal proportions |
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Post by philipgraves on Nov 24, 2020 14:52:32 GMT
It's quite a strong Tory area even though the rest of Clacks. was always SNP-Lab. Dollar was Tory under FPTP in 2003. The Tories seem to be holding up very well in their strong areas in Scotland such as here and in D&G, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Borders etc even as they go backwards in Edinburgh and working class SNP-Lab areas of the central belt. Certainly. But the Labour vote has declined and it appears the Tory vote has increased by equal proportions It's exactly in line with the 2017-19 drop of the Labour vote in the GE in the constituency and is the same pattern as most semi rural/rural Tory-SNP areas, probably some differential turnout as well with Lab>DNV, SNP>Tory, Lab>SNP, SNP>DNV churn as well. On balance a predictably very bad result for Labour, a somewhat flat to disappointing result for the SNP and a great result for the Tories. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 24, 2020 15:21:31 GMT
The world's cheapest private school?  |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 24, 2020 15:23:12 GMT
The world's cheapest private school? It's certainly one where love's gotta hold on you. |
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