November 5th By elections

[Tony Otim]

ABERDEEN UA; (SNP resigned following election as MP for Aberdeen South).
Candidates:
BELLIZZI HOUSTON, Lisette (No Description)
FINLAYSON, Andy (Independent)
HENDERSON, Moira (Liberal Democrat)
HOPE, Bryce (Scottish Liberatarian)
IROH, Sochima (Independent)
McLEAN, Simon Paul (Independent)
RADLEY, Miranda (SNP)
SIMPSON, Shona (Labour)
VERHAMME, Daniel (Green)
WYLES, Christopher Robert (Conservative)

2017: SNP 1396, 707; Con 1113; Lab 590, 318; Ind 562 (Finlayson), 220; LD 270
Although the name changed and it went from 3 to 4 members, as far as I can tell the ward is otherwise unchanged from the old Kincorth/Loirston Ward:
Jul 15by: SNP 1939; Lab 606; Con 313; LD 207; Grn 114
2012: SNP 1389; Lab 1250, 291; Ind 471 (Finlayson), 120; LD 331; Con 219
2007: Lab 1162, 748; SNP 1883; LD 1190, 239; Con 423; Ind 179; Sol 58

Andy Finlayson was the independent councillor for the ward between 2012 and 2017. Simon McLean stood in Bridge of Don ward in 2017 and got 70 votes.

Current Council: SNP 18; Con 10; Aberdeen Labour 9; Ind Alliance Group 3; LD 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

[tonygreaves]

Someone could get elected by starting off with a single-figure percentage.

[andrewteale]

Oct 12, 2020 19:14:57 GMT tonygreaves said:

Someone could get elected by starting off with a single-figure percentage.

You'd need 11 candidates for that.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 12, 2020 19:18:11 GMT andrewteale said:

Oct 12, 2020 19:14:57 GMT tonygreaves said:

Someone could get elected by starting off with a single-figure percentage.

You'd need 11 candidates for that.

Not necessarily, if it wasn't the candidate with the most first preferences who was elected.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 12, 2020 20:00:52 GMT @boogieeck said:

I need to set Bryce a target. What is reasonable?

I am thinking not to be eliminated until after a party with Scottish parliamentary representation has already been eliminated

That's a tough ask - how about finishing ahead of at least 2 of the indys/no descriptions? THat might actually be achievable.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Oct 12, 2020 19:18:11 GMT andrewteale said:

Oct 12, 2020 19:14:57 GMT tonygreaves said:

Someone could get elected by starting off with a single-figure percentage.

You'd need 11 candidates for that.

Technically in IRV (AV, single-member STV, or whatever), that is true once one reaches five candidates.

Imaginary election with 100 voters:

ROUND 1
Alan Adams 48
Benedict Brown 25
Colin Cooper 13
Donald Davies 8
Edward Evans 6

Evans eliminated. After redistribution of his votes:

ROUND 2
Alan Adams 48
Benedict Brown 25
Donald Davies 14 (+6)
Colin Cooper 13

Cooper eliminated. After redistribution of his votes:

ROUND 3
Alan Adams 48
Donald Davies 27 (+13)
Benedict Brown 25

Brown eliminated. After redistribution of his votes:

ROUND 4
Donald Davies 52 (+25)
Alan Adams 48

Davies duly elected. Unlikely, but technically possible.

[andrewteale]

Oct 12, 2020 20:00:52 GMT @boogieeck said:

I need to set Bryce a target. What is reasonable?

I am thinking not to be eliminated until after a party with Scottish parliamentary representation has already been eliminated

Getting into double figures? 10 votes would be a reasonable target.

[independentukip]

Oct 12, 2020 20:00:52 GMT @boogieeck said:

I need to set Bryce a target. What is reasonable?

I am thinking not to be eliminated until after a party with Scottish parliamentary representation has already been eliminated

If he's campaigning against lockdowns, test/track & trace, quarantine, pub closures, anti-social distancing etc then he should win with a landslide. I

[ricmk]

I know lockdown sceptics are vocal here but it’s a minority sport in the real world:

So poor Bryce might only be speaking to the 15% at best. I fear for his chances with that message sadly, although if he can’t make a decent slogan with surname Hope he deserves to lose.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Oct 12, 2020 22:23:09 GMT @boogieeck said:

People who don't really know don't really vote

Libertarians have a curious window of opportunity. Their best electoral chance in the cycle is the Scottish parliament list, where 8-11% can get you lucky.

They need every political party to hold true to lockdown and be behind the curve when the public abandons faith in it.

Problem there is the constitution. A lot of people are going to be voting on that and being a pro Yes party, the Libertarians are going to struggle to pick up the list votes of those of us who'd ordinarily be sympathetic. That pro independence stance is why I never defected to them after thinking about it a while back.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

I'd support devolving power to local communities, but I'd oppose more devolution to Holyrood strongly, so that rules them out.

[neilm]

Oct 12, 2020 22:02:40 GMT ricmk said:

I know lockdown sceptics are vocal here but it’s a minority sport in the real world:

So poor Bryce might only be speaking to the 15% at best. I fear for his chances with that message sadly, although if he can’t make a decent slogan with surname Hope he deserves to lose.

It's a by election so if that 15% turns out...

[Tony Otim]

Oct 13, 2020 15:20:49 GMT neilm said:

Oct 12, 2020 22:02:40 GMT ricmk said:

I know lockdown sceptics are vocal here but it’s a minority sport in the real world:

So poor Bryce might only be speaking to the 15% at best. I fear for his chances with that message sadly, although if he can’t make a decent slogan with surname Hope he deserves to lose.

It's a by election so if that 15% turns out...

... they'll probably vote bloody Tory!

[yellowperil]

Given that this election is on November 5th, it is just as well there is an alternative available (at least for the locals here) to blowing up parliament. For the rest of us.....

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Oct 14, 2020 16:18:22 GMT yellowperil said:

Given that this election is on November 5th, it is just as well there is an alternative available (at least for the locals here) to blowing up parliament. For the rest of us.....

“Rise up and stab them with your plastic forks.”

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Oct 12, 2020 10:04:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

ABERDEEN UA; (SNP resigned following election as MP for Aberdeen South).
Candidates:
BELLIZZI HOUSTON, Lisette (No Description)
FINLAYSON, Andy (Independent)
HENDERSON, Moira (Liberal Democrat)
HOPE, Bryce (Scottish Liberatarian)
IROH, Sochima (Independent)
McLEAN, Simon Paul (Independent)
RADLEY, Miranda (SNP)
SIMPSON, Shona (Labour)
VERHAMME, Daniel (Green)
WYLES, Christopher Robert (Conservative)

2017: SNP 1396, 707; Con 1113; Lab 590, 318; Ind 562 (Finlayson), 220; LD 270
Although the name changed and it went from 3 to 4 members, as far as I can tell the ward is otherwise unchanged from the old Kincorth/Loirston Ward:
Jul 15by: SNP 1939; Lab 606; Con 313; LD 207; Grn 114
2012: SNP 1389; Lab 1250, 291; Ind 471 (Finlayson), 120; LD 331; Con 219
2007: Lab 1162, 748; SNP 1883; LD 1190, 239; Con 423; Ind 179; Sol 58

Andy Finlayson was the independent councillor for the ward between 2012 and 2017. Simon McLean stood in Bridge of Don ward in 2017 and got 70 votes.

Current Council: SNP 18; Con 10; Aberdeen Labour 9; Ind Alliance Group 3; LD 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

Less than 24 hours to get our predictions in.

[london(ex)tory]

Any news on the count for this one?

[timmullen1]

Nov 6, 2020 11:30:28 GMT london(ex)tory said:

Any news on the count for this one?

According to [mention]andrewteale [/mention] Preview the count doesn’t start until 1pm.

[andrewp]

Nov 6, 2020 11:50:59 GMT timmullen1 said:

Nov 6, 2020 11:30:28 GMT london(ex)tory said:

Any news on the count for this one?

According to [mention]andrewteale [/mention] Preview the count doesn’t start until 1pm.

The count starts at 1, results expected ‘from 4pm’

[london(ex)tory]

Nov 6, 2020 12:07:19 GMT andrewp said:

Nov 6, 2020 11:50:59 GMT timmullen1 said:

According to [mention]andrewteale [/mention] Preview the count doesn’t start until 1pm.

The count starts at 1, results expected ‘from 4pm’

Thanks, I can go back to bed for a bit then