By-elections - 14th March 2013

[Pete Whitehead]

Its a pretty bad run of results for those of us in the business of predicting the outcomes as well

[marksenior]

Mar 15, 2013 0:21:07 GMT AdminSTB said:

Mar 15, 2013 0:16:52 GMT greatkingrat said:

LDs apparently have won Aldwick!

Less surprising than the Foxhills result, really - the Lib Dem candidate in Aldwick is the County Cllr for the division covering Aldwick East.

Whilst true most of Paul Wells support comes from the Bognor part of the County seat . I did not see this coming although the ward is only 10 miles or so from me .

[Pete Whitehead]

I'd have probably had that seat down as a likely Tory gain in may - not very likely now.

[AdminSTB]

I'm presuming Aldwick will see a significant UKIP surge too, with the Lib Dems coming through the middle.

Can't wait up any longer for results though, I'll see them in the morning. ;D

[Pimpernal]

Louise Boors of UKIP won a Town Council seat last week I think?
Congleton TC

[Deleted]

Aldwick East

LibDem 383
Con 357
UKIP 339
Lab 61

[Pimpernal]

hellfire - that was close!

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 15, 2013 0:33:34 GMT AdminSTB said:

If they can't win The Stours in North Dorset with only Labour opposition, they're in meltdown.

In the extremely unlikely event of that coming to pass, meltdown would not be close to a strong enough word.

[Pimpernal]

With UKIP and LDs taking seats off the Tories at an increasingly high rate, some folks might be tempted to mock Labour for their lack of break through. This would be rather missing the point though.
Whereas in the past there have been areas where Labour can take the Tories on in Tory bad patches, there have also been huge areas where even in doldrum days the Tories could see off Labour. The problem for the Tories now is that whilst Labour will be able to pick off Tories in the old traditional swing areas, they Tories have also to increasingly fight previously safe areas against different opponents.

We could be on the way to a serious Tory meltdown that will make the 90s look like halcyon days...

[Pimpernal]

Runnymead DC: UKIP 336 (40% +17% on 2012), Con 318 (38% -9% on 2012), Lab 181 (22% n/c on 2012). UKIP gain

[Deleted]

Mar 15, 2013 8:08:33 GMT Pimpernal said:

With UKIP and LDs taking seats off the Tories at an increasingly high rate, some folks might be tempted to mock Labour for their lack of break through. This would be rather missing the point though.
Whereas in the past there have been areas where Labour can take the Tories on in Tory bad patches, there have also been huge areas where even in doldrum days the Tories could see off Labour. The problem for the Tories now is that whilst Labour will be able to pick off Tories in the old traditional swing areas, they Tories have also to increasingly fight previously safe areas against different opponents.

We could be on the way to a serious Tory meltdown that will make the 90s look like halcyon days...

a three way squeeze I would imagine is unique in UK politics. Even in the 80's in trad Labour areas we still won these even with the SDLP around and thatch at her electoral best.

Now Pimp as we have discussed before we have seen the LD's taking what I call the wet tory vote in the more rural areas.

UKIP taking the Tory vote in heartlands with their brand of right wing nonsense like anti gay marriage

Then Labour taking the seats that really are needed.

Going more right will not solve the issue.

[markgoodair]

Mar 15, 2013 7:43:15 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Aldwick East

LibDem 383
Con 357
UKIP 339
Lab 61

Lib Dem 33.6%
Con 31.3%
UKIP 29.7%
Lab 5.4%

[AdminSTB]

I had to actually alter the CSS of my website because I've never had to list a UKIP victory on the menu pages before.

www.englishelections.org.uk/england/lby/index.php

[listener]

Here is some background to the by-election in the Wells St. Cuthbert’s ward of Wells City Council in the District of Mendip.

Wells City Council comprises 16 members, elected from three wards as follows – Wells Central (4), Wells St. Cuthbert’s (6) and Wells St. Thomas’ (56).

Each of the town wards in coterminous with the district ward of the same name.

The council strengths were as follows:

Elections on 3 May 2007: Con 10, Lib Dem 4, No Description 2
3 Conservatives and 1 No Description were returned unopposed in Wells Central.

Elections on 5 May 2011: Con 8, Lib Dem 5, Lab 1, Green Party 1, Independent 1

The current city mayor is Conservative and deputy city mayor is Lib Dem.

The result in Wells St. Cuthbert’s on 3 May 2007 was:
Con 718/676/534, Lib Dem 657/645, No Description 499/479
Elected: Con 3, Lib Dem 2, No Description 1

The result in Wells St. Cuthbert’s on 5 May 2011 was:
Con 743/648/469/458/458/443, Lab 589/443, Lib Dem 501/463, Green Party 529, Independent 503
Elected: Con 2, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1, Green Party 1, Independent 1

The by-election on 14 March is caused by the sad death of John Mitchell (Independent), aged 81, on Christmas Day.

The four candidates are Green Party, Lab, Con and Lib Dem.

The result in the Wells St. Cuthbert’s ward of Mendip Council on 3 May 2007 was
Con 570/536, Lib Dem 488/454, Lab 280, Independent 232
Elected: Con 2

The result in the Wells St. Cuthbert’s ward of Mendip Council on 5 May 2011 was Con 694/596, Lab 381/250, Lib Dem 300/294, Green Party 278, Independent 269
Elected: Con 2

[marksenior]

No figures but the Conservatives won the Wells St Cuthberts byelection

[listener]

Here is some background to the by-election in the Keynsham South ward of Keynsham Town Council in the Unitary District of Bath and North East Somerset.

Keynsham Town Council comprises 15 members, elected from three wards as follows – Keynsham East (5), Keynsham North (5) and Keynsham South (5).

Each of the town wards in coterminous with the district ward of the same name.

The council strengths were as follows:

I do not have the town council election results from 3 May 2007.

Elections on 5 May 2011: Con 9, Lab 2, Lib Dem 1, BNP 1, Vacant 2
2 Con and 1 BNP were returned unopposed in Keynsham East ward.
In a secret ballot on 14 June 2011, the Town Council co-opted Roy Staddon (Lab) and Tony Crouch (Lib Dem) to the vacancies in Keynsham East ward.

Council make-up prior to by-election: Con 8, Lab 3, Lib Dem 2, BNP 1, Vacant 1

The current chair and vice chair of the town council are Conservative.

The result in Keynsham South on 5 May 2011 was:
Con 521/490/459, Lab 442/440/421/398/367, Lib Dem 389/382/272
Elected: Con 3, Lab 2

The by-election on 14 March was caused by the resignation of Andrew Hickling (Con).

The three candidates were Lab, Con and Lib Dem.

The result in the Keynsham South ward of Bath and North East Somerset Council on 3 May 2007 was
Lab 738/548, Con 617/568, Lib Dem 454/331, BNP 211
Elected: Lab 1, Con 1

The result in the Keynsham South ward of Bath and North East Somerset Council on 5 May 2011 was:
Con 824/640, Lab 600/595, Lib Dem 416/228
Elected: Con 2

The result of the by-election was: Lab 298, Con 243, Lib Dem 213
Lab gain from Con
Council make-up on 15 March 2013: Con 8, Lab 4, Lib Dem 2, BNP 1

[Deleted]

Has pb.com frothed itself to death yet?

[paulypaul]

Mar 15, 2013 11:23:29 GMT listener said:

Here is some background to the by-election in the Keynsham South ward of Keynsham Town Council in the Unitary District of Bath and North East Somerset.

Keynsham Town Council comprises 15 members, elected from three wards as follows – Keynsham East (5), Keynsham North (5) and Keynsham South (5).

Each of the town wards in coterminous with the district ward of the same name.

The council strengths were as follows:

I do not have the town council election results from 3 May 2007.

Elections on 5 May 2011: Con 9, Lab 2, Lib Dem 1, BNP 1, Vacant 2
2 Con and 1 BNP were returned unopposed in Keynsham East ward.
In a secret ballot on 14 June 2011, the Town Council co-opted Roy Staddon (Lab) and Tony Crouch (Lib Dem) to the vacancies in Keynsham East ward.

Council make-up prior to by-election: Con 8, Lab 3, Lib Dem 2, BNP 1, Vacant 1

The current chair and vice chair of the town council are Conservative.

The result in Keynsham South on 5 May 2011 was:
Con 521/490/459, Lab 442/440/421/398/367, Lib Dem 389/382/272
Elected: Con 3, Lab 2

The by-election on 14 March was caused by the resignation of Andrew Hickling (Con).

The three candidates were Lab, Con and Lib Dem.

The result in the Keynsham South ward of Bath and North East Somerset Council on 3 May 2007 was
Lab 738/548, Con 617/568, Lib Dem 454/331, BNP 211
Elected: Lab 1, Con 1

The result in the Keynsham South ward of Bath and North East Somerset Council on 5 May 2011 was:
Con 824/640, Lab 600/595, Lib Dem 416/228
Elected: Con 2

The result of the by-election was: Lab 298, Con 243, Lib Dem 213
Lab gain from Con
Council make-up on 15 March 2013: Con 8, Lab 4, Lib Dem 2, BNP 1

Interesting backwards and forwards ward.

[paulypaul]

RESULT: bury St Edmonds Town Council - Risbygate Ward

Frank Warby - Con 198 ELECTED
Nicola Popham - Lab 186

This result means that the Conservatives take control of the town council.

www.burymercury.co.uk/news/bury_st_edmunds_frank_warby_is_elected_as_risbygate_town_councillor_1_1980127

[Deleted]

Mar 15, 2013 12:30:21 GMT @trident said:

Mar 15, 2013 8:08:33 GMT Pimpernal said:

With UKIP and LDs taking seats off the Tories at an increasingly high rate, some folks might be tempted to mock Labour for their lack of break through. This would be rather missing the point though.
Whereas in the past there have been areas where Labour can take the Tories on in Tory bad patches, there have also been huge areas where even in doldrum days the Tories could see off Labour. The problem for the Tories now is that whilst Labour will be able to pick off Tories in the old traditional swing areas, they Tories have also to increasingly fight previously safe areas against different opponents.

We could be on the way to a serious Tory meltdown that will make the 90s look like halcyon days...

What must really terrify the Tories is that, if things go really t*ts up over the next two years, UKIP could do to the Conservatives what the Reform Party of Canada did to the Progressive Conservatives in 1993.

We are overdue a realignment of parties but not sure this will happen.