Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 31, 2021 16:27:03 GMT
I think you cover most it. The lack of talent is a big sticking point particularly in recent years as the labour party had a policy, though it was not legislated on as it is in wales, to stand on either the list or in a seat. I support it myself as I do think it's difficult to explain to people when they want rid of their MSP that they are still there because of the list. The decision to do it on principle though rather than legislate for it means it hurt Labour but no one else. While in Wales opposition parties have lost big beasts too. It also had the rather unintended consequence of basically a whole new Labour group in Scotland in one election. On the list, in 2011 the SNP used the list to their advantage winning a majority on the balance of list and constituencies. Now they have to do it on constituencies because they don't have many list seats because of AMS AMS is an awful system. There are no ifs or buts about it. The ban on standing both in an constituency and on the list has its positives, but can have a lot of unintended consequences as we found out in Scotland.
The ban in Wales ended before the 2016 election. All opposition ''big beasts' lost have been due to their own foolishness.
I'll never understand why basically all of Scottish Labour's big names chose to stay in London rather than move to Holyrood. Even the first parliament had fairly significant powers.
Because at the time the “big beasts” of Scottish Labour were doing very well at Westminster. Why would they seek a demotion?
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,524
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Post by johng on Dec 31, 2021 17:16:01 GMT
AMS is an awful system. There are no ifs or buts about it. The ban on standing both in an constituency and on the list has its positives, but can have a lot of unintended consequences as we found out in Scotland.
The ban in Wales ended before the 2016 election. All opposition ''big beasts' lost have been due to their own foolishness.
I'll never understand why basically all of Scottish Labour's big names chose to stay in London rather than move to Holyrood. Even the first parliament had fairly significant powers.
Because at the time the “big beasts” of Scottish Labour were doing very well at Westminster. Why would they seek a demotion? Interesting to describe it as a 'demotion'.
Putting personal politics aside, which of Mark Drakeford and Kevin Brennan has the most powerful/ most prestigious/ higher position?
OK, Labour are not in power in the UK government at the moment, but think back to 2001-2009 when Labour were in government. What about Rhodri Morgan and Kevin Brennan? (Not to pick on Kevin who's a super nice guy, but all three represent/ represented Cardiff West).
It is the same with local councils. I think it is a demotion to go from council leader to backbench MP.
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Post by stb12 on Dec 31, 2021 18:36:01 GMT
Because at the time the “big beasts” of Scottish Labour were doing very well at Westminster. Why would they seek a demotion? Interesting to describe it as a 'demotion'.
Putting personal politics aside, which of Mark Drakeford and Kevin Brennan has the most powerful/ most prestigious/ higher position?
OK, Labour are not in power in the UK government at the moment, but think back to 2001-2009 when Labour were in government. What about Rhodri Morgan and Kevin Brennan? (Not to pick on Kevin who's a super nice guy, but all three represent/ represented Cardiff West).
It is the same with local councils. I think it is a demotion to go from council leader to backbench MP.
Off the top of my head at the time of the Scottish Parliament forming you had two Scottish MPs in the great offices of state (Brown and Cook), Alistair Darling and John Reid were moving up the ranks pretty quickly as well. As I was a bit young at the time myself I might be missing out a couple of others but Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander also progressed quite well amongst the Labour hierarchy until the referendum changed everything.
So point being the Scottish Parliament wouldn't have been an automatic attraction because Scottish MPs clearly at least had genuine chances of getting somewhere at UK government level. Those Scottish seats tended to be much safer at Westminster level which will have helped too.
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Post by greyfriar on Jan 9, 2022 20:59:17 GMT
gofund.me/2f8c0213
An opportunity to support and expand the output of Ballot Box Scotland for the local elections in May, should anyone be so inclined.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jan 21, 2022 1:49:14 GMT
ComRes Holyrood VI (14-18 Jan)- SNP 47/38 (-1/nc)
- Lab 22/20 (nc/nc)
- Con 19/18 (-1/-4)
- Grn -/12 (-/+1)
- LDm 8/9 (+1/+2)
- Alba -/2 (-/+1)
- Oth 4/1 (+1/-)
ComRes IndyRef VI- Yes 46% (+1)
- No 46% (-2)
- DK 8% (+1)
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 21, 2022 8:47:26 GMT
That poll actually isn't as bad as I though it could have been for the blues and pro union side. I would say with Labour over 40% at U.K. level there would have been some movement in Scotland. Very disappointing poll for them.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jan 21, 2022 8:56:11 GMT
That poll actually isn't as bad as I though it could have been for the blues and pro union side. I would say with Labour over 40% at U.K. level there would have been some movement in Scotland. Very disappointing poll for them. I guess it's because the Conservatives in Scotland don't have as many floating/soft voters as they do did in England; I'd say ~15% is about the base level for the Scottish Conservatives - so there isn't really room for movement. For Labour, their figure is partly down to the SNP being able to offer largely the same thing as Labour, whilst being pro-independence - I believe a sizable majority of the centre-left in Scotland voted for independence. If the SNP collapsed or the constitutional issue reduced in salience, they'd be most likely to mop up right now (at least in the constituency ballot).
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Post by afleitch on Jan 21, 2022 10:54:15 GMT
Yeah, the Tories in Scotland are close to their likely core 1997-2015 vote. Not much room for them to be squeezed.
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2022 11:35:50 GMT
That poll actually isn't as bad as I though it could have been for the blues and pro union side. I would say with Labour over 40% at U.K. level there would have been some movement in Scotland. Very disappointing poll for them. I guess it's because the Conservatives in Scotland don't have as many floating/soft voters as they do did in England; I'd say ~15% is about the base level for the Scottish Conservatives - so there isn't really room for movement. For Labour, their figure is partly down to the SNP being able to offer largely the same thing as Labour, whilst being pro-independence - I believe a sizable majority of the centre-left in Scotland voted for independence. If the SNP collapsed or the constitutional issue reduced in salience, they'd be most likely to mop up right now (at least in the constituency ballot). Well, in 2017 a significant number of SNP voters switched to Labour during the campaign. You coukd interpret that as wild enthusiasm for Corbyn, but more likely it was the "electing Westminster govt" effect. Polls asking about Holyrood are not going to capture either the Boris calamity, or the swing to Labour to the same degree at all.. Much more pro or anti SNP
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 21, 2022 12:03:28 GMT
That poll actually isn't as bad as I though it could have been for the blues and pro union side. I would say with Labour over 40% at U.K. level there would have been some movement in Scotland. Very disappointing poll for them. I suspect the fact that most of the Scottish Party calling for Boris to go has helped put some distance between them.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jan 21, 2022 12:24:02 GMT
I guess it's because the Conservatives in Scotland don't have as many floating/soft voters as they do did in England; I'd say ~15% is about the base level for the Scottish Conservatives - so there isn't really room for movement. For Labour, their figure is partly down to the SNP being able to offer largely the same thing as Labour, whilst being pro-independence - I believe a sizable majority of the centre-left in Scotland voted for independence. If the SNP collapsed or the constitutional issue reduced in salience, they'd be most likely to mop up right now (at least in the constituency ballot). Well, in 2017 a significant number of SNP voters switched to Labour during the campaign. You coukd interpret that as wild enthusiasm for Corbyn, but more likely it was the "electing Westminster govt" effect. Polls asking about Holyrood are not going to capture either the Boris calamity, or the swing to Labour to the same degree at all.. Much more pro or anti SNP Just as a rough guide, the Survation poll from directly before the campaign and their final poll of the campaign showed 6% and 16% of 2015 SNP planning to vote Labour (decided voters). I may take a look at the BES data from directly after that election to see if there are any clues as to the reasons for the shifts, but I do remember hearing a decent number of independence supporters being put off by the SNP's distancing from a referendum, or more powers, in that election - as they didn't see a reason to voting SNP otherwise. This may have been Corbyn factor too, given the places Labour gained the most tended to be in traditional Labour area - Greater Glasgow and Dundee, which so happened to vote Yes relatively strongly. Although Labour had a sharp gain in Holyrood polling following the 2017 election, suggesting a decent amount of coupling.
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2022 13:14:46 GMT
Well, in 2017 a significant number of SNP voters switched to Labour during the campaign. You coukd interpret that as wild enthusiasm for Corbyn, but more likely it was the "electing Westminster govt" effect. Polls asking about Holyrood are not going to capture either the Boris calamity, or the swing to Labour to the same degree at all.. Much more pro or anti SNP Just as a rough guide, the Survation poll from directly before the campaign and their final poll of the campaign showed 6% and 16% of 2015 SNP planning to vote Labour (decided voters). I may take a look at the BES data from directly after that election to see if there are any clues as to the reasons for the shifts, but I do remember hearing a decent number of independence supporters being put off by the SNP's distancing from a referendum, or more powers, in that election - as they didn't see a reason to voting SNP otherwise. This may have been Corbyn factor too, given the places Labour gained the most tended to be in traditional Labour area - Greater Glasgow and Dundee, which so happened to vote Yes relatively strongly. Although Labour had a sharp gain in Holyrood polling following the 2017 election, suggesting a decent amount of coupling. There was certainly a perception in England that despite Corbyn's ambivalence, a Labour govt was the only hope to stop Brexit, and we had Lib Dem members switching in Huddersfield over that. That kicked in when it looked like Labour had a chance.
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 21, 2022 13:46:53 GMT
Agree that this is a surprisingly good poll for the tories and I think the Scottish Tories can take credit for that in the firm was they have pushed back on Johnson's complete nonsense in recent weeks and restablished themselves as a party making rational truth-based decisions on the events of the day, rather than just kowtowing to the Westminster leadership.
A lesson for Tories in the rest of the UK
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2022 15:34:43 GMT
Well, in 2017 a significant number of SNP voters switched to Labour during the campaign. You coukd interpret that as wild enthusiasm for Corbyn, but more likely it was the "electing Westminster govt" effect. Polls asking about Holyrood are not going to capture either the Boris calamity, or the swing to Labour to the same degree at all.. Much more pro or anti SNP Just as a rough guide, the Survation poll from directly before the campaign and their final poll of the campaign showed 6% and 16% of 2015 SNP planning to vote Labour (decided voters). I may take a look at the BES data from directly after that election to see if there are any clues as to the reasons for the shifts, but I do remember hearing a decent number of independence supporters being put off by the SNP's distancing from a referendum, or more powers, in that election - as they didn't see a reason to voting SNP otherwise. This may have been Corbyn factor too, given the places Labour gained the most tended to be in traditional Labour area - Greater Glasgow and Dundee, which so happened to vote Yes relatively strongly. Although Labour had a sharp gain in Holyrood polling following the 2017 election, suggesting a decent amount of coupling. If I were living in Scotland, given that Holyrood is in charge of Covid response, I would probably see Westminster politics as a bit remote and unimportant at the moment, so Partygate is probably having relatively little effect. Everyone except 2019 Tory supporters in Scotland probably have never had any respect for Johnson anyway..
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,062
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 19, 2022 22:37:17 GMT
"NATIONWIDE" OPINION POLLS IN SCOTLAND (October 1974): Sample, Type, and Lab. Con. Lib. Nat. Other Dates of Fieldwork ACTUAL RESULT 36.2 24.7 8.3 30.4 0.3 FORECASTS Scotsman, Sept. 41 24 12 23 a 583 19-22 Sept. Scotsman, Oct. 38 22 11 28 a 670 26-29 Sept. ORC/Scotsman, 10 Oct. 42 23 9 25 a 689 5-6 Oct. System 3/Glasgow Herald, 10 Oct. 33 22 8 36 a 623 3-7 Oct. Louis Harris Intl.l BBC post poll, 10 Oct. 38.6 18.5 6.1 36.5 0.3 R 10 Oct
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,354
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 14, 2022 14:08:05 GMT
SavantaComRes for the Economist:
Holyrood regional: SNP 34 (-4) Con 21 (+3) Lab 20 (nc) Grn 14 (+2) LD 8 (-1)
24-28th Feb (changes from Jan)
Constituency:
SNP 47 (nc) Lab 22 (nc) Con 21 (+2) LD 8 (nc)
Yes 49 (-1) No 51 (+1)
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 14, 2022 17:14:28 GMT
Holyrood regional: SNP 34 (-4) Con 21 (+3) Lab 20 (nc) Grn 14 (+2) LD 8 (-1) 24-28th Feb (changes from Jan) Constituency: SNP 47 (nc) Lab 22 (nc) Con 21 (+2) LD 8 (nc) Alba on 2% on the list. The regional figures could be an indication of what we might see in May - the Greens and Lib Dems could each have a good night on these figures. The Election Polling calculator gives the following seat totals: SNP 62 (-2), Con 23 (-8), Lab 23 (+1), Grn 14 (+6), LDm 7 (+3).
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 14, 2022 18:40:23 GMT
SavantaComRes for the Economist: Holyrood regional: SNP 34 (-4) Con 21 (+3) Lab 20 (nc) Grn 14 (+2) LD 8 (-1) 24-28th Feb (changes from Jan) Constituency: SNP 47 (nc) Lab 22 (nc) Con 21 (+2) LD 8 (nc) Yes 49 (-1) No 51 (+1) I must admit that's a rather disappointing poll for Labour with them at 38-40% nationally still on 22% is rather poor, I agree with Clyde though the regional list vote looks like what could maybe happen in May, although I would maybe expect the green to do slightly worse as we need to factor in about 8-10% nationally for independents.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,354
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 14, 2022 20:28:08 GMT
SavantaComRes for the Economist: Holyrood regional: SNP 34 (-4) Con 21 (+3) Lab 20 (nc) Grn 14 (+2) LD 8 (-1) 24-28th Feb (changes from Jan) Constituency: SNP 47 (nc) Lab 22 (nc) Con 21 (+2) LD 8 (nc) Yes 49 (-1) No 51 (+1) I must admit that's a rather disappointing poll for Labour with them at 38-40% nationally still on 22% is rather poor, I agree with Clyde though the regional list vote looks like what could maybe happen in May, although I would maybe expect the green to do slightly worse as we need to factor in about 8-10% nationally for independents. I'd bite your hand off for 14% nationally this May
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 14, 2022 20:31:22 GMT
I must admit that's a rather disappointing poll for Labour with them at 38-40% nationally still on 22% is rather poor, I agree with Clyde though the regional list vote looks like what could maybe happen in May, although I would maybe expect the green to do slightly worse as we need to factor in about 8-10% nationally for independents. I'd bite your hand off for 14% nationally this May Depends how many candidates you put up but taking 10%+ is I think way out of reach, beating the Lib Dems? That should be the target .
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