clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 18, 2022 12:42:47 GMT
Much a muchness.
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xenon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 247
Member is Online
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Post by xenon on Apr 4, 2022 18:15:40 GMT
Ballot Box Scotland has commissioned a poll by Survation:
Holyrood list vote: SNP ~ 34% (-6) Lab ~ 23% (+5) Con ~ 19% (-4) Grn ~ 11% (+3) LD ~ 8% (+3) Alba ~ 2% (nc)
Holyrood constituency vote: SNP ~ 46% (-2) Lab ~ 25% (+3) Con ~ 20% (-2) LD ~ 7% (nc)
Westminster vote:
SNP ~ 45% (-3) Lab ~ 27% (+7) Con ~ 19% (-3) LD ~ 6% (-1)
Also some interesting questions about understanding and support for different voting systems, and there's apparently more on the way tomorrow with questions regarding the local elections.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 4, 2022 18:29:12 GMT
Ballot Box Scotland has commissioned a poll by Survation: Holyrood list vote: SNP ~ 34% (-6) Lab ~ 23% (+5) Con ~ 19% (-4) Grn ~ 11% (+3) LD ~ 8% (+3) Alba ~ 2% (nc) Holyrood constituency vote: SNP ~ 46% (-2) Lab ~ 25% (+3) Con ~ 20% (-2) LD ~ 7% (nc) Westminster vote: SNP ~ 45% (-3) Lab ~ 27% (+7) Con ~ 19% (-3) LD ~ 6% (-1) Also some interesting questions about understanding and support for different voting systems, and there's apparently more on the way tomorrow with questions regarding the local elections. Very good poll for Labour and on the face of it not completely dire for the blues either hovering around 20%, important to also note that survation have historically slightly under polled both the conservatives and Labour by around 2%.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 4, 2022 19:00:40 GMT
"The past couple of ComRes polls have found comparatively low shares for the SNP on the list side of things, and Survation are now corroborating that. They’d still be clearly out in front, but this is a joint worst figure of the term so far. It stands in stark contrast to the rest of the findings, and I’ll have some thoughts about parts of that in tomorrow’s piece."
I wonder if that's due to an increasing belief that voting SNP on the list being is meaningless, due to the party winning a near majority of the constituency ballot; the SNP + Green + Alba vote on the list is basically equal to the SNP constituency vote. BBS' seat calculation was: SNP 62 (-2), Lab 26 (+4), Con 23 (-8), Grn 10 (+2), LDm 8 (+4)
This poll is the first for Westminster in Scotland since December and the first Survation Westminster poll in Scotland since May last year, which might explain the scale of the Labour increase for Westminster. Survation have typically been on the high-end of pollsters for Labour vote share.
The changes from the 2019 election are: SNP nc, Lab +8, Con -6, LDm -4. The Electoral Calculus Scotland seat calculator gives: SNP 51 (+3), Lab 3 (+2), Con 3 (-3), LDm 2 (-2). 27% would match Labour's showing in 2017, however most of the seats they won were very narrow gains from the SNP - which explains the continued low seat figure.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,243
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 4, 2022 20:22:44 GMT
"The past couple of ComRes polls have found comparatively low shares for the SNP on the list side of things, and Survation are now corroborating that. They’d still be clearly out in front, but this is a joint worst figure of the term so far. It stands in stark contrast to the rest of the findings, and I’ll have some thoughts about parts of that in tomorrow’s piece." I wonder if that's due to an increasing belief that voting SNP on the list being is meaningless, due to the party winning a near majority of the constituency ballot; the SNP + Green + Alba vote on the list is basically equal to the SNP constituency vote. BBS' seat calculation was: SNP 62 (-2), Lab 26 (+4), Con 23 (-8), Grn 10 (+2), LDm 8 (+4)
This poll is the first for Westminster in Scotland since December and the first Survation Westminster poll in Scotland since May last year, which might explain the scale of the Labour increase for Westminster. Survation have typically been on the high-end of pollsters for Labour vote share. The changes from the 2019 election are: SNP nc, Lab +8, Con -6, LDm -4. The Electoral Calculus Scotland seat calculator gives: SNP 51 (+3), Lab 3 (+2), Con 3 (-3), LDm 2 (-2). 27% would match Labour's showing in 2017, however most of the seats they won were very narrow gains from the SNP - which explains the continued low seat figure. Not sure I would be trusting Electoral Calculus calculator. Interesting that Scottish Labour seem to be getting traction as the main opposition as this is what tbey need to do to remove pro-Union votes from the Tories and anti-Tory votes from the SNP, where soft SNP votes are more recoverable where it is not an SNP/Tory face off. It is good for the SNP to have to discuss issues beyond the Union and be challenged. The Tories being third makes that more likely.
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Post by greyfriar on Apr 4, 2022 21:00:26 GMT
"The past couple of ComRes polls have found comparatively low shares for the SNP on the list side of things, and Survation are now corroborating that. They’d still be clearly out in front, but this is a joint worst figure of the term so far. It stands in stark contrast to the rest of the findings, and I’ll have some thoughts about parts of that in tomorrow’s piece." I wonder if that's due to an increasing belief that voting SNP on the list being is meaningless, due to the party winning a near majority of the constituency ballot; the SNP + Green + Alba vote on the list is basically equal to the SNP constituency vote. BBS' seat calculation was: SNP 62 (-2), Lab 26 (+4), Con 23 (-8), Grn 10 (+2), LDm 8 (+4)
This poll is the first for Westminster in Scotland since December and the first Survation Westminster poll in Scotland since May last year, which might explain the scale of the Labour increase for Westminster. Survation have typically been on the high-end of pollsters for Labour vote share. The changes from the 2019 election are: SNP nc, Lab +8, Con -6, LDm -4. The Electoral Calculus Scotland seat calculator gives: SNP 51 (+3), Lab 3 (+2), Con 3 (-3), LDm 2 (-2). 27% would match Labour's showing in 2017, however most of the seats they won were very narrow gains from the SNP - which explains the continued low seat figure. Not sure I would be trusting Electoral Calculus calculator. Interesting that Scottish Labour seem to be getting traction as the main opposition as this is what tbey need to do to remove pro-Union votes from the Tories and anti-Tory votes from the SNP, where soft SNP votes are more recoverable where it is not an SNP/Tory face off. It is good for the SNP to have to discuss issues beyond the Union and be challenged. The Tories being third makes that more likely. Up to a point, however Labour remain well out of contention in around half the country - hardly a second place in constituencies north of Stirling and all but absent from local government in the Highlands and Grampian (excluding Aberdeen).
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Post by afleitch on Apr 5, 2022 9:04:13 GMT
Local government voting intention
It's an interesting exercise
Here's 'First' party preferences v 'Second' party preferences
SNP 44 - 8 Lab 23 - 18 Con 18 - 5 Lib 6 - 12 Grn 3 - 2
24% don't transfer
Third preferences are also polled.
Now what's problematic here is that independents usually pick up about 10% and there usually is a good use of second party transfers.
In his commentary he makes these very points.
What it does suggest is that the Tories are pretty transfer toxic, which if they overnominate in some wards could cost them representation.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,525
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2022 10:39:27 GMT
Not sure I would be trusting Electoral Calculus calculator. Interesting that Scottish Labour seem to be getting traction as the main opposition as this is what tbey need to do to remove pro-Union votes from the Tories and anti-Tory votes from the SNP, where soft SNP votes are more recoverable where it is not an SNP/Tory face off. It is good for the SNP to have to discuss issues beyond the Union and be challenged. The Tories being third makes that more likely. Up to a point, however Labour remain well out of contention in around half the country - hardly a second place in constituencies north of Stirling and all but absent from local government in the Highlands and Grampian (excluding Aberdeen). Though to an admittedly lesser extent, this was true even when they were the "hegemonic" party in Scotland.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 5, 2022 11:17:43 GMT
Local government voting intention It's an interesting exercise Here's 'First' party preferences v 'Second' party preferences SNP 44 - 8 Lab 23 - 18 Con 18 - 5 Lib 6 - 12 Grn 3 - 2 24% don't transfer Third preferences are also polled. Now what's problematic here is that independents usually pick up about 10% and there usually is a good use of second party transfers. In his commentary he makes these very points. What it does suggest is that the Tories are pretty transfer toxic, which if they overnominate in some wards could cost them representation. [br True to an extend but if we lose votes on our first preference we'll likely get they on second preferences, factor in lower turnout etc and the damage to the blues although might be dramatic for example a 5% drop in first preferences should be limited with those votes we lost coming back to us on second preferences.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 5, 2022 13:24:41 GMT
Yougov poll for independence but with wording along the lines of 2016
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 5, 2022 13:26:49 GMT
Basically wording matters
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 5, 2022 13:31:06 GMT
Yougov poll for independence but with wording along the lines of 2016 Which is why if Westminster ever agrees to a new independence referendum, it'll be Remain vs Leave. It's much more explicit.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 5, 2022 13:40:05 GMT
Yougov poll for independence but with wording along the lines of 2016 Which is why if Westminster ever agrees to a new independence referendum, it'll be Remain vs Leave. It's much more explicit. And the SNP will cry foul about rigging, trying to confuse people with Brexit etc Yes/No should never have been allowed in the first place for a vote like that
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,243
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 5, 2022 13:45:47 GMT
Which is why if Westminster ever agrees to a new independence referendum, it'll be Remain vs Leave. It's much more explicit. And the SNP will cry foul about rigging, trying to confuse people with Brexit etc Yes/No should never have been allowed in the first place for a vote like that Well, if "Yes" is to remain and "No" to leave, not sure what the problem would be.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Apr 5, 2022 13:49:50 GMT
Yougov poll for independence but with wording along the lines of 2016 Which is why if Westminster ever agrees to a new independence referendum, it'll be Remain vs Leave. It's much more explicit. That is dodgy as. Remain/ Leave is very strongly linked to Brexit.
The SNP would be quite right to cry foul.
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Post by afleitch on Apr 5, 2022 13:52:31 GMT
Um, the wording of the Scottish independence referendum came first.
The 1975 referendum was Yes/No The 1979 referenda were Yes/No The 1997 referenda were Yes/No The 1998 Good Friday referendum was Yes/No The 2011 referenda were Yes/No
You could easily argue that 'Leave/Remain' was designed to game the outcome. It's the aberration.
No need to rewrite history.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 5, 2022 13:54:56 GMT
Which is why if Westminster ever agrees to a new independence referendum, it'll be Remain vs Leave. It's much more explicit. That is dodgy as. Remain/ Leave is very strongly linked to Brexit.
The SNP would be quite right to cry foul.
Why exactly? We don’t have referendum systems as part of our constitution so each can be treated on its own merit, there’s no requirement to follow a precedent however flawed the precedent may be
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Post by stb12 on Apr 5, 2022 13:56:51 GMT
Um, the wording of the Scottish independence referendum came first. The 1975 referendum was Yes/No The 1979 referenda were Yes/No The 1997 referenda were Yes/No The 1998 Good Friday referendum was Yes/No The 2011 referenda were Yes/No You could easily argue that 'Leave/Remain' was designed to game the outcome. It's the aberration. No need to rewrite history. Presumably if you’re so confident in Scottish Independence then you’ll believe you can win it whatever the wording? The UK is apparently so terrible so no issues getting the Scottish people to vote to leave it
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Post by afleitch on Apr 5, 2022 13:58:49 GMT
Um, the wording of the Scottish independence referendum came first. The 1975 referendum was Yes/No The 1979 referenda were Yes/No The 1997 referenda were Yes/No The 1998 Good Friday referendum was Yes/No The 2011 referenda were Yes/No You could easily argue that 'Leave/Remain' was designed to game the outcome. It's the aberration. No need to rewrite history. Presumably if you’re so confident in Scottish Independence then you’ll believe you can win it whatever the wording? The UK is apparently so terrible so no issues getting the Scottish people to vote to leave it Come on. Take the 'l' in this one You were wrong; a Remain/Leave choice is against precedent and I called you on it.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 5, 2022 14:11:36 GMT
Presumably if you’re so confident in Scottish Independence then you’ll believe you can win it whatever the wording? The UK is apparently so terrible so no issues getting the Scottish people to vote to leave it Come on. Take the 'l' in this one You were wrong; a Remain/Leave choice is against precedent and I called you on it. I don’t believe I was wrong, I said Yes/No was incorrect for a question like that because of the implication of a positive and negative choice. You must remember yourself that the independence side used the Yes word pretty prominently to help make themselves seem like the positive campaign. I wasn’t saying it hadn’t been used in other referendums, I was too young or not even alive (in the case of AV not interested) during those ones to be able to comment much but there were landslide results in all of them (apart from the first devolution referendum but turnout was also a requirement there) so the question likely made no difference. The Scottish Independence debate is much tighter and if another vote does happen it’s destined to be near enough 50-50 so one side can’t be left to just make all the rules. I said in the post above that I don’t think that following precedent is a requirement, referendums are a rare (albeit more common in recent times) feature of UK democracy and we have nothing built into the constitution or legislation to guide it.
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