john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,584
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Post by john07 on May 19, 2021 17:37:45 GMT
To form a government at Holyrood either requires a very high level of support (40%+) or an ability to patch together a coalition. The Conservatives in Scotland are toxic outside of their limited support base and any party allying themselves with the Conservatives would soon become toxic themselves. Look what happened to the Lib Dems in Scotland after 2010 and the Nick Clegg fiasco. The Conservatives struggle to get much above 30% of the vote in the Morningside division on Edinburgh City Council. So they will not be able to achieve either of the above for the foreseeable future. They will be restricted to a few seats most in Grampian and the Borders. I don’t disagree that the Conservatives are a long long way off forming a government in Scotland but their support has grown to an extent that probably wouldn’t have been seen as possible pre 2016, for example winning two list seats in Glasgow and three in Central Scotland, areas the Tories were seen as pretty much dead even allowing for a more proportional voting system. Point being you never know how politics can change over time. The increase on support for the Conservatives was partially down to Ruth Davidson presenting a very different impage. The question is will this be maintained now she has moved on? The point is that given the current state of affairs, the Conservatives would need a much higher share of seats than would be the case for the SNP, Labour or anyone else, because of the toxicity. Obvious that could change but not anytime soon. It would require either a change in Westminster government or Scottish Independence to produce changes. Even then it may require a total 'rebrand' by the Tories, probably with a new name, to have much impact.
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Post by michael2019 on May 19, 2021 18:45:57 GMT
I don’t disagree that the Conservatives are a long long way off forming a government in Scotland but their support has grown to an extent that probably wouldn’t have been seen as possible pre 2016, for example winning two list seats in Glasgow and three in Central Scotland, areas the Tories were seen as pretty much dead even allowing for a more proportional voting system. Point being you never know how politics can change over time. The increase on support for the Conservatives was partially down to Ruth Davidson presenting a very different impage. The question is will this be maintained now she has moved on? The point is that given the current state of affairs, the Conservatives would need a much higher share of seats than would be the case for the SNP, Labour or anyone else, because of the toxicity. Obvious that could change but not anytime soon. It would require either a change in Westminster government or Scottish Independence to produce changes. Even then it may require a total 'rebrand' by the Tories, probably with a new name, to have much impact. um... it is of course valid to say that the Conservatives have not been "flavour of the month" in Scotland for some time and most of the SNP vote outside of the independence issue would probably go more for Labour or the Lib Dems rather than the Tories. But they are the second biggest party at the moment in the Scottish Parliament and the biggest of the unionist parties. But... if it became mathematically possible - the three unionist parties wanted in the future to install an unionist or a non-SNP government then it might well have to be done on a "rainbow coalition" basis - of the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems - as if one of them (especially the Tories) sat on their hands then it might be that the SNP could outvote them on who becomes the first minister. As I said on the Lib Dem topic viz Westminster coalitions - and there are differences I am sure between the Westminster and Scottish systems - there is great confusion and mix-up between the executive and the legislature. People don't vote for a PM or FM in a non-presidential system directly but for a Parliament and members of said Parliament who then choose their PM/FM who then choose their Executive. But the parliament is the master and the PM/FM and cabinet the servant - even if a bit like Jeeves and Wooster the servant arguably becomes the master! But you might get a fairly minimalist rainbow coalition agreement between the three parties and of course any bill and budget has still to get through Parliament. There are obvious dangers for Labour and Lib Dems being associated with the Tories but actually the tactical voting at the 2021 election was on independence/unionist lines. So Labour (and Lib Dems) actually voting Tory where the Tories were the best placed unionist party in the FPTP constituency seats and vice versa. And if the Tories and Labour(/Lib Dems) were roughly the same size the dynamics of such a coalition are very different from the Westminster coalition of 2010-15 where the Tories were some 6 times the parliamentary numbers of the Lib Dems. And judging from England (so I may well be wrong) it does seem that devolution has enabled the Tories in Scotland to prevent a much more Scottish face and indeed improve their position electorally which is probably good for the political health of the "body politic" - if a little ironic given they were against devolution.
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on May 19, 2021 18:55:41 GMT
The so called “ toxicity” is pretty meaningless now across most of England and Wales, with just a few spots where it is still a big factor. Hard to see this process not continue really, as the old class based politics recedes from memory. Why would Scotland be permanently different? Pretty much every democracy resolves into some kind of balance between a progressive and a conservative approach.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 19, 2021 18:56:29 GMT
The idea that our support is down to Ruth is daft. She helped, being the charismatic woman that she is, but we equalled her score and got nearly a fifth more votes without her. This is a lie that SLAB tell themselves to feel good, when the truth is, they're the ones in dire straits. Their support has went to both us and the nationalists, they can't go too far towards either position lest they forever alienate one, but being in the middle alienates both. Again, possibly forever. Their cluster of support is now older people, a certain kind of uber middle class lefty and Tory tacticals, not exactly a stable electoral base, especially when the ungrateful wankers continually insult us. I'd add, Labour seem to think that their unionist and nationalist defectors will return once the constitutional issue is settled either post indy ref 2 or post indy, they may well be wrong. Like in England, it isn't at all clear their support will return now that the tribal link is cut. They risk going the way of the pre-89 Liberals. So a bit more humility from Labour is in order.
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Post by andrew111 on May 19, 2021 19:47:32 GMT
Delusion knows no bounds. He put no timescale on it, even I can't predict 500 years into the future. The Conservatives could merge with the SNP?
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Post by MeirionGwril on May 19, 2021 22:55:06 GMT
He put no timescale on it, even I can't predict 500 years into the future. The Conservatives could merge with the SNP? More likely the LibDem will merge with the tories (again!)
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Post by hullenedge on May 20, 2021 19:37:04 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on May 20, 2021 20:36:08 GMT
A calm, businesslike announcement.
Haven't they got someone on their team who could ramp it hysterically?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jun 27, 2021 19:50:31 GMT
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,192
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 27, 2021 20:14:31 GMT
A calm, businesslike announcement.
Haven't they got someone on their team who could ramp it hysterically? Roger Awan Scully was unavailable.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 27, 2021 21:45:21 GMT
As you were really and meaningless at this stage. I know council elections are coming up next year but it's difficult to use polls to predict them with all the local factors and voting system.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,510
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Post by johng on Sept 9, 2021 11:49:13 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 9, 2021 12:09:57 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,510
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Post by johng on Sept 9, 2021 12:46:30 GMT
The poll was conducted over a week ago and I can't find the tables anywhere. That's quite strange. If true, it would be the best poll for the union in quite some time.
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Post by afleitch on Sept 9, 2021 13:37:41 GMT
It seems to be a non standard 'Remain/Leave' question.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,192
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Sept 9, 2021 13:51:52 GMT
The Opinium Poll has a mighty sample of 883 respondents. Their sub samples have the SNP at 6% so it is nice to have a Westminster VI in order to get a clearer picture from their pov.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,192
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Sept 10, 2021 7:31:34 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 13, 2021 7:25:29 GMT
Panelbase for Westminster elections (dates not provided):-
SNP 47 Con 23 Lab 19 LD 7
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 20, 2021 9:32:51 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 20, 2021 9:45:32 GMT
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