iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Mar 7, 2021 15:11:24 GMT
Struggling to see how a fairly big drop in the projected SNP vote sees them gaining seats and that Cons are down despite a rise in support That is surely explained by the fact that the changes in party poll shares are relative to the previous poll - rather than the 2016 Holyrood election.Thus, whilst the SNP has lost ground compared with a month ago, they remain roughly where they were in May 2016. On the other hand, the polling in 2016 - and 2017 - did overstate SNP support. Yes of course - had missed that
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Post by MacShimidh on Mar 7, 2021 19:38:56 GMT
I missed this earlier - John Curtice has tweeted that when DKs are excluded, the Panelbase poll shows a dead heat for the independence numbers, not the 51-49 No lead as earlier reported.
Overall a pretty embarrassing weekend for Scottish pollsters, and especially for those outlets who are supposed to report the numbers accurately.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 7, 2021 19:58:40 GMT
I missed this earlier - John Curtice has tweeted that when DKs are excluded, the Panelbase poll shows a dead heat for the independence numbers, not the 51-49 No lead as earlier reported. Overall a pretty embarrassing weekend for Scottish pollsters, and especially for those outlets who are supposed to report the numbers accurately. That it breaks the last year or so of continual Yes leads is notable, but you're right, they should absolutely get their facts right.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 7, 2021 20:16:49 GMT
Note that more polls are due out tomorrow
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Post by london(ex)tory on Mar 8, 2021 14:24:44 GMT
Any news on the other polls we've been promised today?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 8, 2021 16:25:59 GMT
Any news on the other polls we've been promised today? Not yet.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 11, 2021 5:03:09 GMT
New polling from YouGov in the Times Scotland. "In principle, do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence this year, after the Scottish parliament elections if the SNP get a majority of the seats?" Yes - 36% No - 50%. Unsurprisingly, 68% of SNP voters are yes, whilst 2% of Conservatives are. "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Yes - 49% No - 51% Voting intentions % 6-8 March. Changes with 6-10 November. Constituency. SNP 52 (-4), Conservative 22 (+3), Labour 17 (+2), Lib Dem 6 (-), Green 2 (-) and Other 1 (-1). Regional List. SNP 45 (-2) Conservative 21 (+1) Labour 16 (+3) Lib Dem 5 (-1) Green 6 (-1) SSP 3 (-) and Others 4(-) Seat Totals; SNP 71 (+8) Conservative 29 (-2) Labour 20 (-4) Lib Dem 5 (-) and Greens 4 (-1). SNP majority of 13. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/voters-snub-snp-plans-for-another-referendum-wtghj38m7
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 11, 2021 7:28:43 GMT
I think they missed out the decimal point on the SSP figure - surely it should be 0.3 to have any credibility ...
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 11, 2021 7:34:36 GMT
I think they missed out the decimal point on the SSP figure - surely it should be 0.3 to have any credibility ... I see these SSP figures in these polls, and I think "who/where are all these SSP voters🤨🤷🏻♂️"
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 11, 2021 7:37:40 GMT
I think they missed out the decimal point on the SSP figure - surely it should be 0.3 to have any credibility ... There not even standing in this election....
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 11, 2021 8:17:01 GMT
There's also a Savanata/Comres poll out today, one which shows the SNP falling just short of an overall majority.
Constituency Percentage (Changes from February)
SNP 48 (-6) Conservative 23 (-) Labour 20 (+4) Lib Dems 8 (+3)
Regional List Percentage (")
SNP 40 (-3) Conservative 24 (+4) Labour 18 (-) Green 10 (-) Lib Dem 6(-)
Total Number of Seats
SNP 64 (+1) Conservative 30 (-1) Labour 20 (-4) Green 10 (+4) Lib Dem 5 (-)
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 11, 2021 8:25:40 GMT
Gives the Greens quite a lot if influence and suggests those who think they should be part of a unionist bloc have got it entirely wrong. Quite apart from the fact that their localism would not suggest very much correlation with the way the unionist argument is currently being structured
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 11, 2021 8:49:59 GMT
I think they missed out the decimal point on the SSP figure - surely it should be 0.3 to have any credibility ... I see these SSP figures in these polls, and I think "who/where are all these SSP voters🤨🤷🏻♂️" It is probably people who think Galloway is standing for the SSP.
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Post by afleitch on Mar 11, 2021 9:44:21 GMT
Another '2016 repeat' poll.
Worth pointing out that given the last few weeks, these sorts of numbers after nearly 14 years on office are still really good.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 11, 2021 9:47:14 GMT
Another '2016 repeat' poll. Worth pointing out that given the last few weeks, these sorts of numbers after nearly 14 years on office are still really good. Indeed, but it is pretty obvious that due to the independence issue the SNP's voteshare is increasingly divorced from its actual performance.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Mar 11, 2021 9:50:00 GMT
Another '2016 repeat' poll. Worth pointing out that given the last few weeks, these sorts of numbers after nearly 14 years on office are still really good.
This is right. Given everything, it's extraordinary really.
Got to agree with Merseymike as well in regards to the Greens. The unionist field is beyond crowded and a few posters here are totally delusional in that regard. Electorally the Greens are far better off sucking off the SNP's teat and going after their list vote.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 11, 2021 9:54:58 GMT
Another '2016 repeat' poll. Worth pointing out that given the last few weeks, these sorts of numbers after nearly 14 years on office are still really good. Indeed, but it is pretty obvious that due to the independence issue the SNP's voteshare is increasingly divorced from its actual performance. Same applies the other way - unionism is insulating the Scottish Tories from the negatives of Brexit and Boris.
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 11, 2021 10:05:08 GMT
Yes. It appears, still, that the lines on maps issue is reducing all other matters to second tier. While that remains the case I don't expect the SNP support to be greatly affected, and Labour as the party of unionist devolution are likely to be squeezed However surely the Tories are in a good place to shore up the minority who both backed Brexit and support Unionism?
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Post by afleitch on Mar 11, 2021 10:55:01 GMT
Another '2016 repeat' poll. Worth pointing out that given the last few weeks, these sorts of numbers after nearly 14 years on office are still really good.
This is right. Given everything, it's extraordinary really.
Got to agree with Merseymike as well in regards to the Greens. The unionist field is beyond crowded and a few posters here are totally delusional in that regard. Electorally the Greens are far better off sucking off the SNP's teat and going after their list vote. It's the same pool of voters. I'm in Glasgow Cathcart. I'm more than likely going to see Dornan returned. I suspect most if not all seats in the city will be SNP. So I'm voting Green on the list to maximise another pro-indy member getting elected.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 11, 2021 12:10:12 GMT
The Green vote share on the list could prove very important to the unionist/nationalist balance. They are teetering around the level of support where a bit above could win them a seat in every region and 2 each in Edinburgh/Glasgow, or a bit below and they only scrape a single seat in a few of their stronger regions. Since the SNP are not going to win many list seats, any loss of seats by the Greens, even if their support went to the SNP, would likely see unionist parties gain seats instead.
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