Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Mar 7, 2021 0:16:33 GMT
Independence
No 47 (+3) Yes 46 (-3)
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 7, 2021 0:48:06 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 7, 2021 0:51:21 GMT
Interesting that the Estimated Seats projection gives the SNP a majority of 1! Whatever happens between now and polling day it looks like it will be a cliffhanger.
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Mar 7, 2021 0:58:02 GMT
Interesting that the Estimated Seats projection gives the SNP a majority of 1! Whatever happens between now and polling day it looks like it will be a cliffhanger. Only going to get worse for the SNP I think, it's so clear that Sturgeon has broken the ministerial code, so struggle to see how James Hamilton will be able to find otherwise. I also expect Sarwar to gain a bit of traction in the election campaign.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 7, 2021 10:05:48 GMT
Hopefully we should hear from Yougov, Opinium (new kid on the block) savantacomres,survation and maybe ipso Mori to see if this is indeed a trend. And what’s happening in voting intention.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 7, 2021 10:45:02 GMT
Hopefully we should hear from Yougov, Opinium (new kid on the block) savantacomres,survation and maybe ipso Mori t o see if this is indeed a thread. And what’s happening in voting intention. I don't think we need their approval! We are a Free Forum! Fight the power!
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Post by afleitch on Mar 7, 2021 10:59:08 GMT
I expected worse tbh. 47% would still be their highest result in Holyrood.
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Post by MacShimidh on Mar 7, 2021 11:18:24 GMT
An important caveat on the independence numbers from Savanta ComRes: " However, these figures are not weighted for voter turnout, with further polling expected this week to show a clearer impact of the inquiry on Scottish independence voting intention. These figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable with previous polls on the subject, due to this and the nature of the poll." In other words, we still won't know the effect of the last few weeks until later this week.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 7, 2021 11:28:25 GMT
I expected worse tbh. 47% would still be their highest result in Holyrood. Against that, though - if SNP support drops during the short campaign this time like it did in 2016, their coat could end up on a shoogly peg indeed.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,306
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 7, 2021 11:29:43 GMT
There was a tweet there. Essentially, trust in Nicola Sturgeon has also fallen by 50% due to the Salmond Inquiry. Not quite right if you read the article - 43% now say they trust Sturgeon less as a result of the enquiry when asked directly (and probably somewhat leadingly), up 7% from the last time the question was asked in December. (Interestingly those saying they trust Sturgeon more as a result of the enquiry is also up 7%). Those saying that they trust Sturgeon (as an outright measure) has fallen by 12% since December, which is still a significant move.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,848
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Post by jamie on Mar 7, 2021 11:42:51 GMT
An important caveat on the independence numbers from Savanta ComRes: " However, these figures are not weighted for voter turnout, with further polling expected this week to show a clearer impact of the inquiry on Scottish independence voting intention. These figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable with previous polls on the subject, due to this and the nature of the poll." In other words, we still won't know the effect of the last few weeks until later this week. John Curtice tweeted that the underlying data was exactly the same as the previous poll showing a Yes lead, so the turnout weighting seems a rather important part of the poll.
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Post by MacShimidh on Mar 7, 2021 11:47:27 GMT
An important caveat on the independence numbers from Savanta ComRes: " However, these figures are not weighted for voter turnout, with further polling expected this week to show a clearer impact of the inquiry on Scottish independence voting intention. These figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable with previous polls on the subject, due to this and the nature of the poll." In other words, we still won't know the effect of the last few weeks until later this week. John Curtice tweeted that the underlying data was exactly the same as the previous poll showing a Yes lead, so the turnout weighting seems a rather important part of the poll. Indeed, and now Britain Elects have basically tweeted that the poll is bunk:
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 7, 2021 11:50:32 GMT
Which still leaves another poll last night with a no lead, of course.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,530
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Post by iang on Mar 7, 2021 12:00:01 GMT
Struggling to see how a fairly big drop in the projected SNP vote sees them gaining seats and that Cons are down despite a rise in support
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Post by afleitch on Mar 7, 2021 12:05:10 GMT
Because for the Tories there's negligible movement in the constituency vote on 2016 seeing no seats shift, but slightly worse results on the list relative to 2016 compared to Labour.
It's just maths; these things are hard to predict
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 7, 2021 12:21:03 GMT
An important caveat on the independence numbers from Savanta ComRes: " However, these figures are not weighted for voter turnout, with further polling expected this week to show a clearer impact of the inquiry on Scottish independence voting intention. These figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable with previous polls on the subject, due to this and the nature of the poll." In other words, we still won't know the effect of the last few weeks until later this week. I suspect when it’s weighted it’ll show a slight no lead, or could this be to do with the weird way savanta weight there polls not using certain to vote figures but using everything over 6 on a 1 to 10 scale?
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Post by Ben Walker on Mar 7, 2021 12:36:57 GMT
The equivalent unweighted figures for their 09 Feb poll are the same as what we see in today's Scotsman. So a slight No lead is cert possible, though more unlikely than not (09 Feb had, after weighting, 5pt Yes lead). Recent news from the Salmond inquiry, though, may have indeed dampened Yes enthusiasm and motivated pro-Union voters, somewhat, and so when you do weight for voter likelihood, you're likely to see a shift to No.
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Post by justin124 on Mar 7, 2021 13:26:05 GMT
Struggling to see how a fairly big drop in the projected SNP vote sees them gaining seats and that Cons are down despite a rise in support That is surely explained by the fact that the changes in party poll shares are relative to the previous poll - rather than the 2016 Holyrood election.Thus, whilst the SNP has lost ground compared with a month ago, they remain roughly where they were in May 2016. On the other hand, the polling in 2016 - and 2017 - did overstate SNP support.
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Post by justin124 on Mar 7, 2021 14:10:01 GMT
Anthony Wells ' anthonyjwells· Seeing a lot of comments on here that the comres scottish poll "wasnt weighted". It almost certainly was weighted by all the usual demogs (age, gender, etc), so a legit poll. Just not additionally weighted by turnout, unlike their previous polls, so not comparable to them.' From Twitter
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 7, 2021 14:20:27 GMT
Anthony Wells ' anthonyjwells· Seeing a lot of comments on here that the comres scottish poll "wasnt weighted". It almost certainly was weighted by all the usual demogs (age, gender, etc), so a legit poll. Just not additionally weighted by turnout, unlike their previous polls, so not comparable to them.' From Twitter Ah so it’s not comparable to there series of polls I get it now.
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