Parties Votes Evaporating Over Time

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

I was looking at the local election results for Sheffield Hallam / Sheffield Fulwood Ward since my parents bought their house in it in 1968. What really struck me was scale of the Conservatives loss of percentage of vote, I realised there had been a big drop but still. Nobody would have believed this if it had been suggested in 1968. I realise there have been boundry changes over 51 years but they haven't been huge enough on their own to cause the collapse, cause the the overall trend.

Conservative (Candidate every election)

highest % = 1968 = 79.6%

lowest % = 2019 = 8.2%

I was wondering if this has happened to the Conservatives or other parties elsewhere.

Other parties ward highs and lows for Completeness.

Labour (Candidate every election)
highest % = 1971 = 33.2%
lowest % = 2007 = 7.3%

Liberal / Alliance / LDem (Candidate 36/40 elections)

highest % = 1998 = 61.4%
lowest % = 1971 = 8.4%

Green (Candidate 18/40 elections)
highest % = 2019 = 20.8%
lowest % = 1994 = 2.2%

UKIP (Candidate 10/40 elections)
highest % = 2014 = 9.2%
lowest % = 2007 = 1.9%

TUSC (Candidate 3/40 elections)
highest % = 2014 = 1.2%
lowest % = 2015 = 0.6%

[Merseymike]

I don't have the figures to hand and as I'm meant to be working not reading this, I had better not start looking for them, but it wasn't so long ago that there were solid Labour wards in places like Chesham, Reigate, Windsor and Newbury

[ilerda]

Hallam/Fulwood may not have had major boundaries over the years, but it has certainly undergone major demographic changes. The inclusion of the two large student "villages" at Endcliffe and Ranmoor in this ward is not only foolish in terms of community links, but also adds around 4,000 student voters to the electorate.

In addition to this there has been quite a lot of churn in terms of the type of employment, with public sector now accounting for a much larger percentage of the electorate.

And I say this as the candidate who achieved the record low vote for Conservatives in this ward (not my proudest moment, but also a reflection of the fact it's no longer a Conservative target seat, given how the makeup of the Conservative vote has changed in recent years).

[The Bishop]

Jun 1, 2020 9:05:10 GMT Merseymike said:

I don't have the figures to hand and as I'm meant to be working not reading this, I had better not start looking for them, but it wasn't so long ago that there were solid Labour wards in places like Chesham, Reigate, Windsor and Newbury

Well, in Reigate they were only lost in the late New Labour period. I think you have to go back to the 1970s for your other examples though.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm not aware of any solid Labour wards in Newbury even back in the 1970s

[AdminSTB]

The 1968 locals were of course exceptionally good for the Conservatives.

[Merseymike]

Jun 1, 2020 10:35:03 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'm not aware of any solid Labour wards in Newbury even back in the 1970s

You know more about these things than me, but we did have a member of our Labour branch who had been a councillor in Newbury and I recall him saying that there was a ward which was Labour in the town. As I say I don't have the figures to hand, though, so it may have only been the occasional Labour win, like Oldfield ward in Maidenhead.

[Pete Whitehead]

Labour have only ever had one councillor on Newbury/West Berkshire council since the 1973 reorganisation. That was in the 1970s and was in Hungerford

[jacoblamsden]

Jun 1, 2020 9:20:35 GMT ilerda said:

Hallam/Fulwood may not have had major boundaries over the years, but it has certainly undergone major demographic changes. The inclusion of the two large student "villages" at Endcliffe and Ranmoor in this ward is not only foolish in terms of community links, but also adds around 4,000 student voters to the electorate.

In addition to this there has been quite a lot of churn in terms of the type of employment, with public sector now accounting for a much larger percentage of the electorate.

And I say this as the candidate who achieved the record low vote for Conservatives in this ward (not my proudest moment, but also a reflection of the fact it's no longer a Conservative target seat, given how the makeup of the Conservative vote has changed in recent years).

Why is a relatively exclusive residential area like Hallam now so much more public sector dominated than before? I ask this as I'd have thought there are generally fewer public sector jobs than there were in the 70s, say, and it is hardly as if those work in the public sector are hugely well paid compared to the private sector (in many cases, the opposite is true).

Is it a result of a lack of well-paid private sector jobs in cities such as Sheffield which means public sector workers are better able to afford to live in nice areas than in London and the SE? You certainly don't get a lot of public sector workers in the posher bits of Kent/SE London for instance.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Oh I agree, some demographic changes and major employment factors in Sheffield Fulwood area; but the scale of the drop from its height to current low in local politics still surprised me

I suppose it shows if you stop putting any effort in, your votes will dwindle right away. This has exasibated a trend that would have been there anyway.

On the students coming in, a minor voting factor in the locals and the students coming in was at the expense of Labour Crosspool / Crookes area not a more Conservative area of the ward.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 1, 2020 9:20:35 GMT ilerda said:

Hallam/Fulwood may not have had major boundaries over the years, but it has certainly undergone major demographic changes. The inclusion of the two large student "villages" at Endcliffe and Ranmoor in this ward is not only foolish in terms of community links, but also adds around 4,000 student voters to the electorate.

In addition to this there has been quite a lot of churn in terms of the type of employment, with public sector now accounting for a much larger percentage of the electorate.

And I say this as the candidate who achieved the record low vote for Conservatives in this ward (not my proudest moment, but also a reflection of the fact it's no longer a Conservative target seat, given how the makeup of the Conservative vote has changed in recent years).

Better luck next time.

[hengo]

Has it ever been proposed to end the choice of Students as to where they cast their vote? I’m not persuaded myself that the great majority have much interest, knowledge or long term commitment regarding the wider community in which their University sits. I imagine most base their choice wholly on where it would be most influential, which is logical and understandable. I’m not sure how right that is though.

[andrewp]

On very similar boundaries, with not that much new development, Labour got 72% in Taunton Halcon in 1973, and 14% in 2019

[Merseymike]

Jun 1, 2020 11:57:43 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Labour have only ever had one councillor on Newbury/West Berkshire council since the 1973 reorganisation. That was in the 1970s and was in Hungerford

Actually that would fit with those dates - pre 1973 - he would have been a councillor before then as when I knew him it would have been 1977 or so and he'd have left Newbury a few years before

[owainsutton]

Jun 1, 2020 14:01:50 GMT hengo said:

Has it ever been proposed to end the choice of Students as to where they cast their vote? I’m not persuaded myself that the great majority have much interest, knowledge or long term commitment regarding the wider community in which their University sits. I imagine most base their choice wholly on where it would be most influential, which is logical and understandable. I’m not sure how right that is though.

Or on where they perceive it to be the most influential, which can be a very different matter.

[Deleted]

Most of the students I know just voted where it was easiest.

[Merseymike]

Jun 1, 2020 15:58:00 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Most of the students I know just voted where it was easiest.

Yes. Exactly. I know that Liverpool's Labour students encouraged students NOT to vote in Liverpool, but I'm sure many did, unless they had already arranged a postal vote

[hengo]

With postal voting now so easy anyway I don’t see a problem. Having a choice gives a students vote potentially more weight than that of others. And it seems to be to the electoral advantage of one party. I think I would feel quite strongly if I lived in a University town where perhaps my Council and MP were elected through the votes of those who had little to do with my community in reality- living temporarily in a sort of independent bubble geographically located nearby but with very little in common with those living working and paying their taxes there.

[hengo]

Jun 1, 2020 16:04:21 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 1, 2020 15:58:00 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Most of the students I know just voted where it was easiest.

Yes. Exactly. I know that Liverpool's Labour students encouraged students NOT to vote in Liverpool, but I'm sure many did, unless they had already arranged a postal vote

Well.....they would wouldn’t they! So you accept that the local Labour students encouraged the use of the choice for political advantage- Liverpool seats being safe anyway? Perfectly sensible from the point of view of party advantage , but rather making my point.

[Merseymike]

Jun 1, 2020 16:16:21 GMT hengo said:

Jun 1, 2020 16:04:21 GMT Merseymike said:

Yes. Exactly. I know that Liverpool's Labour students encouraged students NOT to vote in Liverpool, but I'm sure many did, unless they had already arranged a postal vote

Well.....they would wouldn’t they! So you accept that the local Labour students encouraged the use of the choice for political advantage- Liverpool seats being safe anyway? Perfectly sensible from the point of view of party advantage , but rather making my point.

Of course, and so they should. But as to how much actual influence Liverpool's Labour students might have, I'd say negligible. T