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Post by bjornhattan on May 28, 2020 19:49:59 GMT
With regards to the City of London, I don't think it's as Labour as you suspect. The best evidence I can find for this was the 2019 European Parliament elections (local elections aren't that helpful for working out partisan support). Just 11% of voters here backed Labour, compared to 14% in Kensington and Chelsea or 19% in Westminster.
I would also suggest that Portsoken ward may be a bit more Labour than the Barbican. This was the first ward they ever won at a local level (in a 2014 by-election), and is rather similar in character to neighbouring parts of Tower Hamlets. The housing blocks just west of Mansell Street and to the north of Haydon Street are certainly very different to most people's perceptions of the City.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 28, 2020 19:51:51 GMT
GLA elections are probably a better guide. The 2019 European elections aren't a very good guide to anything, as the Lib Dems found out..
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Post by bjornhattan on May 28, 2020 19:59:00 GMT
GLA elections are probably a better guide. The 2019 European elections aren't a very good guide to anything, as the Lib Dems found out.. That's fair, but such a low level of Labour support in 2019 (far lower than even Westminster) can't be dismissed, especially with the general election result being a three-way split and not solely a Conservative vs Labour battle. My gut feeling (backed up by your notional figures), is that the City would have been too close to call between all three main parties at the general election, I would imagine about 35% Lib Dem, 35% Conservative, and 30% Labour. For more "normal" elections like 2017, the GLA elections are more useful. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 28, 2020 20:15:27 GMT
Yes but that makes it more Labour and less Conservative than the constituency as a whole (which the GLA results would also suggest). It is less Labour than Westminster overall because the latter includes such strongholds as Queens Park, Westbourne and Church Street
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Post by conservativeestimate on May 28, 2020 20:36:33 GMT
Excellent summary
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Post by connor on Jan 5, 2021 16:29:15 GMT
Going to be bold here and say that its possible that The Liberal Democrats could take this seat in 2024 if their vote share increases which seems to be the case following the last election.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 5, 2021 16:32:49 GMT
Going to be bold here and say that its possible that The Liberal Democrats could take this seat in 2024 if their vote share increases which seems to be the case following the last electionDo you mean "increasing in this constituency" or "increasing nationally"? Because the latter certainly isn't the case in the polls, much as I wish it were. |
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Post by David Boothroyd on Jan 5, 2021 16:38:55 GMT
Going to be bold here and say that its possible that The Liberal Democrats could take this seat in 2024 if their vote share increases which seems to be the case following the last election. Are you trying to enter a competition for the wrongest opinion? In 2019 the Lib Dems got 30.7% in the most favourable conditions after throwing the kitchen sink at it. This isn't going to happen again. |
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Post by connor on Jan 5, 2021 18:07:00 GMT
Adam in stroud - I meant constituency, sorry. david Boothroyd - Given it was a remain spot, and the numbers went up each election, I reckon the next election will be the bursting bubble for this seat.
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Post by David Boothroyd on Jan 5, 2021 18:34:27 GMT
When the bubble bursts it won't go yellow.
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European Lefty
Labour
I am autistic, so If I'm rude or inappropriate it's probably by accident. If not, you'll know it!
Posts: 1,950 
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 5, 2021 18:58:55 GMT
Adam in stroud - I meant constituency, sorry. david Boothroyd - Given it was a remain spot, and the numbers went up each election, I reckon the next election will be the bursting bubble for this seat. Brexit is going to be utterly irrelevant electorally, and the "like public services as long as I'm not the one paying for them" rich-lefty brigade have been deserting the LibDems for Starmer since the general election. If this seat produces a shock, it will be a Labour gain (assuming it survives the review intact that is) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 5, 2021 22:53:10 GMT
Adam in stroud - I meant constituency, sorry. david Boothroyd - Given it was a remain spot, and the numbers went up each election, I reckon the next election will be the bursting bubble for this seat. Brexit is going to be utterly irrelevant electorally, and the "like public services as long as I'm not the one paying for them" rich-lefty brigade have been deserting the LibDems for Starmer since the general election. If this seat produces a shock, it will be a Labour gain (assuming it survives the review intact that is) There are lots of different possibilities (as we have seen) but I do notice that the City, Westminster and K&C can be combined for three seats - Kensington and Chelsea itself is only a little too large for a single seat but if you transfer Golborne to Westminster North and then Brompton & Hans Town and Queens Gate to the Cities the numbers work out (I should have preferred to add Royal Hospital rather than Queens Gate but that would leave K&C below quota) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 6, 2021 10:17:17 GMT
Brexit is going to be utterly irrelevant electorally, and the "like public services as long as I'm not the one paying for them" rich-lefty brigade have been deserting the LibDems for Starmer since the general election. If this seat produces a shock, it will be a Labour gain (assuming it survives the review intact that is) There are lots of different possibilities (as we have seen) but I do notice that the City, Westminster and K&C can be combined for three seats - Kensington and Chelsea itself is only a little too large for a single seat but if you transfer Golborne to Westminster North and then Brompton & Hans Town and Queens Gate to the Cities the numbers work out (I should have preferred to add Royal Hospital rather than Queens Gate but that would leave K&C below quota) On closer inspection, you could add Royal Hospital to this seat in addition to Brompton & Hans Town and Queens Gate and leave Golborne in the Kensington & Chelsea seat. Then Hyde Park moves to Westminster North (which could them legitimately be renamed 'Paddington') - a better arrangement all round |
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