Cities of London and Westminster

[bjornhattan]

With regards to the City of London, I don't think it's as Labour as you suspect. The best evidence I can find for this was the 2019 European Parliament elections (local elections aren't that helpful for working out partisan support). Just 11% of voters here backed Labour, compared to 14% in Kensington and Chelsea or 19% in Westminster.

I would also suggest that Portsoken ward may be a bit more Labour than the Barbican. This was the first ward they ever won at a local level (in a 2014 by-election), and is rather similar in character to neighbouring parts of Tower Hamlets. The housing blocks just west of Mansell Street and to the north of Haydon Street are certainly very different to most people's perceptions of the City.

[Pete Whitehead]

GLA elections are probably a better guide. The 2019 European elections aren't a very good guide to anything, as the Lib Dems found out..

[bjornhattan]

May 28, 2020 19:51:51 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

GLA elections are probably a better guide. The 2019 European elections aren't a very good guide to anything, as the Lib Dems found out..

That's fair, but such a low level of Labour support in 2019 (far lower than even Westminster) can't be dismissed, especially with the general election result being a three-way split and not solely a Conservative vs Labour battle. My gut feeling (backed up by your notional figures), is that the City would have been too close to call between all three main parties at the general election, I would imagine about 35% Lib Dem, 35% Conservative, and 30% Labour.

For more "normal" elections like 2017, the GLA elections are more useful.

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes but that makes it more Labour and less Conservative than the constituency as a whole (which the GLA results would also suggest). It is less Labour than Westminster overall because the latter includes such strongholds as Queens Park, Westbourne and Church Street

[Deleted]

Excellent summary

[connor]

Going to be bold here and say that its possible that The Liberal Democrats could take this seat in 2024 if their vote share increases which seems to be the case following the last election.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jan 5, 2021 16:29:15 GMT connor said:

Going to be bold here and say that its possible that The Liberal Democrats could take this seat in 2024 if their vote share increases which seems to be the case following the last election

Do you mean "increasing in this constituency" or "increasing nationally"? Because the latter certainly isn't the case in the polls, much as I wish it were.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 5, 2021 16:29:15 GMT connor said:

Going to be bold here and say that its possible that The Liberal Democrats could take this seat in 2024 if their vote share increases which seems to be the case following the last election.

Are you trying to enter a competition for the wrongest opinion? In 2019 the Lib Dems got 30.7% in the most favourable conditions after throwing the kitchen sink at it. This isn't going to happen again.

[connor]

Adam in stroud - I meant constituency, sorry.

david Boothroyd - Given it was a remain spot, and the numbers went up each election, I reckon the next election will be the bursting bubble for this seat.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

When the bubble bursts it won't go yellow.

[European Lefty]

Jan 5, 2021 18:07:00 GMT connor said:

Adam in stroud - I meant constituency, sorry.

david Boothroyd - Given it was a remain spot, and the numbers went up each election, I reckon the next election will be the bursting bubble for this seat.

Brexit is going to be utterly irrelevant electorally, and the "like public services as long as I'm not the one paying for them" rich-lefty brigade have been deserting the LibDems for Starmer since the general election. If this seat produces a shock, it will be a Labour gain (assuming it survives the review intact that is) 

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 5, 2021 18:58:55 GMT European Lefty said:

Jan 5, 2021 18:07:00 GMT connor said:

Adam in stroud - I meant constituency, sorry.

david Boothroyd - Given it was a remain spot, and the numbers went up each election, I reckon the next election will be the bursting bubble for this seat.

Brexit is going to be utterly irrelevant electorally, and the "like public services as long as I'm not the one paying for them" rich-lefty brigade have been deserting the LibDems for Starmer since the general election. If this seat produces a shock, it will be a Labour gain (assuming it survives the review intact that is) 

There are lots of different possibilities (as we have seen) but I do notice that the City, Westminster and K&C can be combined for three seats - Kensington and Chelsea itself is only a little too large for a single seat but if you transfer Golborne to Westminster North and then Brompton & Hans Town and Queens Gate to the Cities the numbers work out (I should have preferred to add Royal Hospital rather than Queens Gate but that would leave K&C below quota)

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 5, 2021 22:53:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 5, 2021 18:58:55 GMT European Lefty said:

Brexit is going to be utterly irrelevant electorally, and the "like public services as long as I'm not the one paying for them" rich-lefty brigade have been deserting the LibDems for Starmer since the general election. If this seat produces a shock, it will be a Labour gain (assuming it survives the review intact that is) 

There are lots of different possibilities (as we have seen) but I do notice that the City, Westminster and K&C can be combined for three seats - Kensington and Chelsea itself is only a little too large for a single seat but if you transfer Golborne to Westminster North and then Brompton & Hans Town and Queens Gate to the Cities the numbers work out (I should have preferred to add Royal Hospital rather than Queens Gate but that would leave K&C below quota)

On closer inspection, you could add Royal Hospital to this seat in addition to Brompton & Hans Town and Queens Gate and leave Golborne in the Kensington & Chelsea seat. Then Hyde Park moves to Westminster North (which could them legitimately be renamed 'Paddington') - a better arrangement all round

[gerrardwinstanley]

Since its creation at the 1950 general election, the constituency of the Cities of London and Westminster has, thus far, always elected members from the Conservative Party. The seat’s boundaries and name have been altered slightly over the course of the Boundary Commission’s periodical reviews. In 1983, for example, the seat gained the Hyde Park ward from Paddington and four wards from St Marylebone, both of which were abolished for the 1983 general election. In the north-west of the seat, the Bayswater and Lancaster Gate wards, added in 1995, were then removed at the 2007 review. Later reviews have tried to pair both Cities to different London boroughs; however, these suggestions faced (successful) hostility, and the seat has existed in its current form since the 2010 general election.

In a sense, to write a comprehensive summary of this constituency is demanding, for it does, after all, cover the two historic centres of the capital: the Roman City of London and the Anglo-Saxon Westminster. It thus includes some of the UK’s – and world’s – most iconic districts and landmarks, from Buckingham Palace and St Paul’s Cathedral to Tower Bridge (or at least half of it). To make this task easier, it would seem appropriate to examine the distinct parts of the seat in turn, starting from the east and moving westwards.

Beginning in the east of the constituently we have the City of London, colloquially known as the “Square Mile”, run by the archaic City of London Corporation. The oldest part of London, the City was founded (as Londinium) in 47AD; parts of the original Roman defensive wall can still be found, such as at Tower Hill tube station. Today, however, the City is more well known for its position as an international financial centre as well as being home to the Bank of England. Now characterised by its skyscrapers and large modern offices, the City has a working population of over 500,000; its residential population, however, plummets to just under 10,000.

Now, moving westwards, we pass Christopher Wren’s imposing St Paul’s Catherdal, and from here we travel down Fleet Street, once home to Britain’s journalism industry. At the the end of Fleet Street are the Inns of Court and Royal Courts of Justice – the country’s legal profession. At Aldwych we are reminded of London’s position as a global centre of higher education, with both the main buildings of King’s College London and the London School of Economics located here. And from Aldwych we enter the West End, where you can find waves of theatres, restaurants, and shops. Soho is at the centre of the entertainment district: once a base for the sex industry and considered rather “grubby”, the area has, from the 1980s, been gentrified. Nonetheless, Old Compton Street is still home to the city’s gay community, and the area’s streets are filled with late night revellers most nights; to the south of Soho is China Town, Leicester Square, and Trafalgar Square. Off the latter, with its famous statue of Admiral Nelson, are some of London’s most prominent art galleries.

If we carry on heading southwest, down Whitehall, we arrive at Westminster-proper. Here, by the River Thames, is the Palace of Westminster, and following the Birdcage Walk (or, alternatively, The Mall) away from the river, Buckingham Palace too – the residence of the British monarch. In the southwest corner of the seat is Pimlico, a more socially mixed area, with some large council estates (Churchill Gardens and the Millbank Estate). Heading back north, far from socially mixed, we come to some of the most affluent and expensive parts of the city. In Mayfair, Belgravia and Knightsbridge, around the numerous grand squares, live some of the country's wealthiest residents. However, once we get to Paddington, we return to an area where deprivation sits alongside wealth. Nevertheless, this wealth continues into Marylebone, with its village-like high street, and Fitzrovia, sitting just north of Europe’s busiest shopping area: Oxford Street.

Returning to politics – after that extensive (but far from exhaustive) summary of the geography and characteristics of the seat – the Cities of London and Westminster has, until more recently, been a relatively ‘safe seat’ for the Conservatives. At its creation, it served as the seat for the Commons speaker Harry Hylton-Foster, who died suddenly in office, thus causing a by-election. The seat, then know as City of London and Westminster South, faced another by-election in 1977, returning another Conservative candidate, Peter Brooke. Despite its ‘important’ status at the centre of the country’s capital, on the whole, the members who have served it have been somewhat ‘low-key’. The predecessor to the incumbent, Mark Field, did briefly hold a junior minister position in the Foreign Office, however. Today the seat is represented by Nickie Aiken, who previously served as the Conservative leader of Westminster City Council.

Whilst once a safe seat for the Conservatives, in recent elections, the seat has become a closer race. In 2017, for example, the Labour Party, under Jeremy Corbyn, increased its vote share by 11%, coming only a few thousands votes behind the successful Conservative candidate. However, it was the Liberal Democrats, in 2019, who came a close-ish second. Chuka Umunna, having moved from Labour to the Liberal Democrats (with a ‘stop off’ at another party on the way), stood in this Remain-leaning seat, beating the Labour candidate – but ultimately failing to beat the Conservative nominee. As Brexit becomes less relevant electorally, it would seem appropriate to predict that the Labour Party will return as the principal contenders to the Conservatives, having ‘natural’ pockets of support in the seat; and a leader who may appeal more readily to moderate Conservative (and Liberal Democrat) voters. Moreover, inner and central London has, on a whole, been trending toward Labour for some time – achieving a shock win in the neighbouring Kensington seat in 2017, for example.

The City of London’s small electorate is generally Conservative-leaning. There are, however, pockets of Labour support, primarily in the more residential areas on the outskirts of the City, such as Barbican and Portsoken, where the party has won seats on the Corporation. It’s in Westminster where the Conservatives principal vote comes from, however; this vote is concentrated in the middle of district, primarily around Knightsbridge, Belgravia and Mayfair. In the centre of the seat, Labour does find some support in the (once) bohemian Soho; its main voter base is at the ‘edge’ of the seat, however. In the far southwest corner, the large housing estate of Churchill Gardens is very much Labour-leaning, and whilst less homogeneous in its support of a single party, Paddington, in the north of the seat, also has a sizeable Labour vote.

In future elections, it may not be unimaginable that a seat which contains London's 'ritziest' neighbourhoods may return a Labour candidate; for now, however, it's the Conservatives who are on top.

[Pete Whitehead]

Just a little bit of pedantry. Hyde Park was added from Paddington in 1983, not from St Marylebone - the seat did gain the wards of Baker Street, Bryanston and Cavendish from St Marylebone

[gerrardwinstanley]

Thank you, Pete; it's now been edited.

I wrote most of this late last night, so expect mistakes. If anyone has any further suggestions/rectifications, please let me know.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It's Mark Field, not Mike, and Nickie Aiken, not Allen.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 31.5% 634/650
Private rented 42.1% 1/650
Social rented 21.5% 177/650
White 68.5% 581/650
Black 4.8% 106/650
Asian 13.8% 83/650
Born in pre-2001 EU states 12.7% 2/650
Passport Europe non EU 2.6% 1/650
Passport N America/Caribbean 5.8% 3/650
Managerial & professional 51.3%
Higher managerial administrative 6.1% 1/650
Routine & Semi-routine 9.9%
Finance and insurance activities 19.1% 3/650
Real estate activities 3.1% 3/650
Degree level 54.5% 3/650
No qualifications 10.0% 649/650
Students 13.6% 73/650
Age 65+ 11.9% 571/650



General Election 2019: Cities of London and Westminster

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Nickie Aiken 17,049 39.9 -6.7
Liberal Democrats Chuka Umunna 13,096 30.7 +19.6
Labour Gordon Nardell 11,624 27.2 -11.2
Green Zack Polanski 728 1.7 -0.4
CPA Jill McLachlan 125 0.3
Liberal Dirk van Heck 101 0.2

C Majority 3,953 9.2 +1.0

Turnout 42,723 67.1 +4.3

Registered electors 63,700

Conservative hold

Swing 13.1 C to LD

[gerrardwinstanley]

Feb 11, 2021 11:21:10 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It's Mark Field, not Mike, and Nickie Aiken, not Allen.

Thank you for your corrections, Daniel Boothroyd. It would seem that I have a 'problem' with names.

[batman]

"once a base for the sex industry and considered rather “grubby”, the area has, from the 1980s, been gentrified. Nonetheless, Old Compton Street is still home to the city’s gay community, " - slightly unfortunately put, as it implies there's something grubby about being gay. Although entirely heterosexual myself, I would strongly reject such an attitude.