Vatican Cityelection 2013

[andrea]

Italian media are reporting that the Pope is going to resign on February 28th

[markgoodair]

The chance of the first black pope?

[greatkingrat]

From Paddy Power

9/4 Cardinal Peter Turkson
5/2 Cardinal Marc Ouellet
7/2 Cardinal Francis Arinze
7/1 Archbishop Angelo Scola
10/1 Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga
12/1 Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone
14/1 Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco
16/1 Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio
20/1 Cardinal Leonardo Sandri
25/1 Cardinal Raymond Burke
25/1 Cardinal Cladio Hummes
25/1 Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi
25/1 Cardinal Christoph von Schonborn
33/1 Cardinal Wilfrid Napier
33/1 Cardinal William Levada
33/1 Cardinal Camillo Ruini
33/1 Cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera
33/1 Cardinal Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa
33/1 Cardinal Renato Martino
33/1 Cardinal Albert Malcolm Ranjith
33/1 Archbishop Piero Marini
33/1 Cardinal Antonio Canizares Llovera
33/1 Cardinal Keith O’Brien
40/1 Bar

[stepney]

By my reckoning (thanks Wikipedia!):

There are 209 cardinals.

92 will be over 80 at 28/02/2013. Therefore the electorate for this is 117.

The breakdown of the 117 by nation is:

Italy - 28
United States - 11
Germany - 6
Brazil - 5
India - 5
Spain - 5
France - 4
Poland - 4
Canada - 3
Mexico - 3
Argentina - 2
Nigeria - 2
Portugal - 2
Australia - 1
Austria - 1
Belgium - 1
Bolivia - 1
Bosnia-Herzegovina - 1
Chile - 1
Colombia - 1
Croatia - 1
Cuba - 1
Czech Republic - 1
Democratic Republic of the Congo - 1
Dominican Republic - 1
Ecuador - 1
Egypt - 1
Ghana - 1
Guinea - 1
Honduras - 1
Hong Kong - 1
Hungary - 1
Indonesia - 1
Ireland - 1
Kenya - 1
Lebanon - 1
Lithuania - 1
Netherlands - 1
Peru - 1
Philippines - 1
Senegal - 1
Slovenia - 1
South Africa - 1
Sri Lanka - 1
Sudan - 1
Switzerland - 1
Tanzania - 1
United Kingdom - 1
Venezuela - 1
Vietnam - 1

The breakdown by continent is:

Africa - 11
Asia - 11
Europe - 61
North America - 20
Oceania - 1
South America - 13

50 were made cardinals by John Paul II, and 67 by Benedict XVI.

The breakdown by year of appointment is:

1983 - 2
1991 - 2
1994 - 5
1998 - 6
2001 - 17
2003 - 18
2006 - 9
2007 - 16
2010 - 18
2012 - 24

[stepney]

Just for completeness, of the 92 non-electors is:

Italy - 21
United States - 8
France - 5
Spain - 5
Brazil - 4
Germany - 3
Poland - 3
Switzerland - 3
Argentina - 2
Australia - 2
Colombia - 2
India - 2
Philippines - 2
Slovakia - 2
Ukraine - 2
Angola - 1
Belgium - 1
Cameroon - 1
Chile - 1
Côte d'Ivoire - 1
Czech Republic - 1
Hong Kong - 1
Hungary - 1
Iraq - 1
Ireland - 1
Latvia - 1
Lebanon - 1
Malta - 1
Mexico - 1
Mozambique - 1
Netherlands - 1
New Zealand - 1
Nicaragua - 1
Nigeria - 1
Portugal - 1
Romania - 1
South Korea - 1
Thailand - 1
Uganda - 1
United Kingdom - 1
Zambia - 1

Africa - 7
Asia - 9
Europe - 54
North America - 10
Oceania - 3
South America – 9

Paul VI – 2
John Paul II – 73
Benedict XVI – 17

1973 – 1
1976 – 1
1979 – 3
1983 – 3
1985 – 11
1988 – 10
1991 – 6
1994 – 9
1998 – 7
2001 – 16
2003 – 8
2006 – 5
2007 – 3
2010 – 5
2012 – 4

[greatkingrat]

We need a thread about malapportionment in the College of Cardinals!

[Deleted]

When I first heard, during my lunch hour at work, that the Pope was to resign, I was itching to get home and create this thread. I'm home now and as I expected, someone has beaten me to it. I would have entitled it "Papal conclave" personally, but at least Andrea is Italian.

I was slightly amused at this news, as I was remarking only the other day how elections seem to be all the rage at the moment in these microstates. Monaco had theirs yesterday, and so recently have Liechtenstein and San Marino. People may wonder why I take the time and trouble to make threads about them, but ironically it is the very smallest that is grabbing world attention.

His Holiness' announcement is unexpected and highly unusual, but it does raise questions as to why such an elderly man was chosen in the first place. The electorate of cardinals is a pretty conservative bunch, and I wouldn't be surprised if when "Habemus Papam" is declared, another elderly man emerges on that balcony.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_papabili_in_the_2013_papal_conclave

[stepney]

Feb 11, 2013 16:00:12 GMT swanarcadian said:

His Holiness' announcement is unexpected and highly unusual, but it does raise questions as to why such an elderly man was chosen in the first place. The electorate of cardinals is a pretty conservative bunch, and I wouldn't be surprised if when "Habemus Papam" is declared, another elderly man emerges on that balcony.

For a start, the choice of Ratzinger in 2005 raises no questions at all. There could have been no expectation in 2005 that he would go on to resign. Indeed there could have been no expectation last week that he would resign. No Bishop of Rome since 1415 has resigned and the anticipation would have been that Ratzinger would have vacated the office in the same way as the rest of them.

As for "not being surprised" if the choice was an elderly man, the youngest cardinal at the moment is 54, so I'd say it's a running certainty.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Let's face it, the Vatican hasn't let a young man near the levers of power since they abolished cardinal-nephews, and they're not about to go back down that route.

[johnloony]

Why is the thread entitled "by-election"? It's not a by-election, It's a general election.

It's odd that Francis Arinze is the second-favourite, when he's already 80.

[stepney]

Feb 11, 2013 17:48:50 GMT johnloony said:

Why is the thread entitled "by-election"? It's not a by-election, It's a general election.

It's odd that Francis Arinze is the second-favourite, when he's already 80.

A general election results on the expiry of a fixed term, surely? It's generally accepted that vacancies occasioned by deaths or resignations result in by-elections.

[Deleted]

Each to their own. I personally call it a papal conclave.

[greatkingrat]

Feb 11, 2013 18:07:41 GMT stepney said:

A general election results on the expiry of a fixed term, surely? It's generally accepted that vacancies occasioned by deaths or resignations result in by-elections.

It is only a by-election if you are electing someone to finish off the remainder of the original incumbents term. If the winner gets a full term in their own right then it is not a by-election.

As for Arinze, I agree with John that he has no chance. I am also rather sceptical that the Catholic Church will actually elect someone called Peter, in view of the well known prophecy about the next Pope! My prediction is Rodriguez of Honduras.

[Deleted]

1

[Deleted]

Feb 11, 2013 19:26:22 GMT greatkingrat said:

Feb 11, 2013 18:07:41 GMT stepney said:

A general election results on the expiry of a fixed term, surely? It's generally accepted that vacancies occasioned by deaths or resignations result in by-elections.

It is only a by-election if you are electing someone to finish off the remainder of the original incumbents term. If the winner gets a full term in their own right then it is not a by-election.

As for Arinze, I agree with John that he has no chance. I am also rather sceptical that the Catholic Church will actually elect someone called Peter, in view of the well known prophecy about the next Pope! My prediction is Rodriguez of Honduras.

Yeah, this story is stupid as every Pope is Peter as well as their chosen name.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Also as it's an incredibly obvious forgery.

[piperdave]

According to today's news, he has said he won't seek to influence the conclave. As for what next, apparently he is to have a break at Castel Gandolfo, presumably immediately following his resignation taking effect until the processes to elect and install the new Pope have completed. Thereafter he lives in cloisters in the Vatican and gets to do whatever he wants I suppose. Perhaps some theological investigation and writings or just be an old man and watch Italian daytime TV.

Someone earlier pointed out that the political spectrum doesn't apply in the same way amongst Catholics and I would tend to agree that's right. While a Pope from Latin America or Africa might bring their influence to bear on poverty and sustainable development, they might also be more inclined towards an even more conservative position on social attitudes on contraception, homosexuality etc. than their European or North American counterparts.

[Deleted]

The Church doesn't do zeitgeist. For what it is worth, I think speculation if fairly pointless as those considered papabile rarely get chosen and we end up with a surprise. Whilst not ignoring political machinations and the discussions that go on, Cardinals are people in the end, I still have enough trust in the Holy Spirit that a surprise will be thrown up - nobody expected John XXIII, an elderly stop-gap Italian, to call the Second Vatican Council.

[Arthur Figgis]

Feb 12, 2013 10:07:53 GMT piperdave said:

According to today's news, he has said he won't seek to influence the conclave. As for what next, apparently he is to have a break at Castel Gandolfo, presumably immediately following his resignation taking effect until the processes to elect and install the new Pope have completed. Thereafter he lives in cloisters in the Vatican and gets to do whatever he wants I suppose. Perhaps some theological investigation and writings or just be an old man and watch Italian daytime TV.

I really wouldn't wish a lifetime of Italian TV on anyone, let alone Italian daytime TV!

[erlend]

Feb 12, 2013 10:25:03 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Feb 12, 2013 10:07:53 GMT piperdave said:

According to today's news, he has said he won't seek to influence the conclave. As for what next, apparently he is to have a break at Castel Gandolfo, presumably immediately following his resignation taking effect until the processes to elect and install the new Pope have completed. Thereafter he lives in cloisters in the Vatican and gets to do whatever he wants I suppose. Perhaps some theological investigation and writings or just be an old man and watch Italian daytime TV.

I really wouldn't wish a lifetime of Italian TV on anyone, let alone Italian daytime TV!

I bet he can get his native German on cable/satellite.