Isle of Wight

[greenhert]

The Isle of Wight constituency has existed as a single constituency since the Great Reform Act of 1832, although from 1832-85 Newport was represented separately. Attempts to split the Isle of Wight constituency back into two constituencies have been successfully resisted so far.

The Isle of Wight is separated from the mainland and specifically the county of Hampshire by the Solent. Since 1983 it has been the largest constituency in the UK in terms of electorate, approximately 113,000 as of 2020. The Isle of Wight has many attractive landmarks, including Osborne House, Queen Victoria's favourite summer residence, and Carisbrooke Castle, where King Charles I was imprisoned during the English Civil War. Several famous poets and writers of the 19th century lived on the Isle of Wight, including Alfred (Lord) Tennyson, John Keats and Charles Dickens when he was writing David Copperfield. The Isle of Wight's demographics are similar to those of the South East but the geographical disconnection from the mainland means low social mobility levels and few good job opportunities on the island.

The Isle of Wight is a safe Conservative seat at present but its political history is fascinating. In 1974, Stephen Ross won it for the Liberals, partly due to a scandal involving the then Conservative MP Mark Woodnutt and a boat-building company. Mr Ross narrowly held on against future Conservative MPs Dudley Fishburn and Virginia Bottomley in 1979 and 1983 despite their best efforts; he retired in 1987 and Barry Field won the seat for the Conservatives. Mr Field retired in 1997 and Peter Brand won the seat for the Liberal Democrats then, having narrowly failed to unseat Mr Field in 1992. The Liberal Democrat administration on the Isle of Wight proved particularly unpopular and this contributed to Dr Brand's defeat by Andrew Turner, who was also the Conservative candidate in 1997. Mr Turner's political career was rather chequered; in 2015 four former chairmen of the Isle of Wight Conservative Association called for his resignation as MP and his agent, David Walter, resigned a week before the election; the Liberal Democrats nevertheless collapsed spectacularly with UKIP taking second place and the Greens' Vix Lowthion third. In 2017, after claiming homosexuality "was not normal" when speaking to a group of schoolchildren, he stood down at the general election later that year and the seat's current Conservative MP, Bob Seely (whose great-great-uncle Jack was MP for this seat from 1900-06 and again from 1923-24) succeeded him. In 2017 and 2019 this seat was a top Green Party target but Ms Lowthion only managed third place in 2017, and in 2019 her vote share actually fell by 2.1% despite the Liberal Democrats standing down for her as part of the Unite to Remain alliance; unusually in 2019 the Labour vote actually increased by 1.3%, even though Labour have never been competitive on the Isle of Wight at any level.

[lackeroftalent]

The River Solent ceased to be at the end of the last Ice Age, so yes Solent Strait or just The Solent.

[carlton43]

Apr 19, 2020 20:48:14 GMT @barnabymarder said:

That's a relief, it would have been sad if instead of going to sea in my sister's boat I'd only been on a river.

It was at one time the mouth of the Rhine Estuary and would have been a bit of both.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 19, 2020 15:37:38 GMT lackeroftalent said:

The River Solent ceased to be at the end of the last Ice Age, so yes Solent Strait or just The Solent.

Yep, and the River Solent was only part of what is now the Solent.

All the natural harbours on that stretch of the coast, from Poole to Pompey, are also flooded river estuaries.

[IceAgeComing]

There was a lot of talk of there being an Independent Conservative candidate had Turner not stood down in 2017 and had he been adopted as Conservative candidate which would have potentially made things very interesting - by the end he didn't have a great deal of personal popularity either generally or in the party so an Independent would have done well but the party will have people that always vote for them. While I seriously doubt this particular scenario would have happened (since you'd have had tactical voting for the Independent to get Turner out) but hypothetically if you split the Tory vote exactly in two they'd only be a little bit ahead of Labour and you'd have the chance of a weird result.

Seely seems to be pretty popular on the Island; my family (life-long Labour supporters which probably makes them entirely unrepresentative of the general population) like him and while they disagree with his politics and wouldn't vote for him he's seen as being a good constituency MP. Been rather vocal about the ferries issue and has suggested the renationalisation of Wightlink or government control of fares which seems like a very un-Conservative policy but one which there's plenty of support for back home for obvious reasons.

[redactedcock]

Isn't the IoW ferry the most expensive in the world, per mile? Or something like that.

[matureleft]

Apr 19, 2020 14:06:59 GMT greenhert said:

The Isle of Wight constituency has existed as a single constituency since the Great Reform Act of 1832, although from 1832-85 Newport was represented separately. Attempts to split the Isle of Wight constituency back into two constituencies have been successfully resisted so far.

The Isle of Wight is separated from the mainland and specifically the county of Hampshire by the Solent. Since 1983 it has been the largest constituency in the UK in terms of electorate, approximately 113,000 as of 2020. The Isle of Wight has many attractive landmarks, including Osborne House, Queen Victoria's favourite summer residence, and Carisbrooke Castle, where King Charles I was imprisoned during the English Civil War. Several famous poets and writers of the 19th century lived on the Isle of Wight, including Alfred (Lord) Tennyson, John Keats and Charles Dickens when he was writing David Copperfield. The Isle of Wight's demographics are similar to those of the South East but the geographical disconnection from the mainland means low social mobility levels and few good job opportunities on the island.

The Isle of Wight is a safe Conservative seat at present but its political history is fascinating. In 1974, Stephen Ross won it for the Liberals, partly due to a scandal involving the then Conservative MP Mark Woodnutt and a boat-building company. Mr Ross narrowly held on against future Conservative MPs Dudley Fishburn and Virginia Bottomley in 1979 and 1983 despite their best efforts; he retired in 1987 and Barry Field won the seat for the Conservatives. Mr Field retired in 1997 and Peter Brand won the seat for the Liberal Democrats then, having narrowly failed to unseat Mr Field in 1992. The Liberal Democrat administration on the Isle of Wight proved particularly unpopular and this contributed to Dr Brand's defeat by Andrew Turner, who was also the Conservative candidate in 1997. Mr Turner's political career was rather chequered; in 2015 four former chairmen of the Isle of Wight Conservative Association called for his resignation as MP and his agent, David Walter, resigned a week before the election; the Liberal Democrats nevertheless collapsed spectacularly with UKIP taking second place and the Greens' Vix Lowthion third. In 2017, after claiming homosexuality "was not normal" when speaking to a group of schoolchildren, he stood down at the general election later that year and the seat's current Conservative MP, Bob Seely (whose great-great-uncle Jack was MP for this seat from 1900-06 and again from 1923-24) succeeded him. In 2017 and 2019 this seat was a top Green Party target but Ms Lowthion only managed third place in 2017, and in 2019 her vote share actually fell by 2.1% despite the Liberal Democrats standing down for her as part of the Unite to Remain alliance; unusually in 2019 the Labour vote actually increased by 1.3%, even though Labour have never been competitive on the Isle of Wight at any level.

I've noted this in these profiles before, but not commented. While nobody would claim great Labour strength on the island there has been a pretty consistent small Labour presence in local government for the last 20 years at least, and the most recent General Election results have demonstrated a fair amount of latent support after a pretty long squeeze to produce the Tory/Lib Dem marginal it has been.

I can also see no reference to the two-seat proposal that seems very likely to happen.

[carlton43]

Jun 10, 2020 10:23:15 GMT matureleft said:

Apr 19, 2020 14:06:59 GMT greenhert said:

The Isle of Wight constituency has existed as a single constituency since the Great Reform Act of 1832, although from 1832-85 Newport was represented separately. Attempts to split the Isle of Wight constituency back into two constituencies have been successfully resisted so far.

The Isle of Wight is separated from the mainland and specifically the county of Hampshire by the Solent. Since 1983 it has been the largest constituency in the UK in terms of electorate, approximately 113,000 as of 2020. The Isle of Wight has many attractive landmarks, including Osborne House, Queen Victoria's favourite summer residence, and Carisbrooke Castle, where King Charles I was imprisoned during the English Civil War. Several famous poets and writers of the 19th century lived on the Isle of Wight, including Alfred (Lord) Tennyson, John Keats and Charles Dickens when he was writing David Copperfield. The Isle of Wight's demographics are similar to those of the South East but the geographical disconnection from the mainland means low social mobility levels and few good job opportunities on the island.

The Isle of Wight is a safe Conservative seat at present but its political history is fascinating. In 1974, Stephen Ross won it for the Liberals, partly due to a scandal involving the then Conservative MP Mark Woodnutt and a boat-building company. Mr Ross narrowly held on against future Conservative MPs Dudley Fishburn and Virginia Bottomley in 1979 and 1983 despite their best efforts; he retired in 1987 and Barry Field won the seat for the Conservatives. Mr Field retired in 1997 and Peter Brand won the seat for the Liberal Democrats then, having narrowly failed to unseat Mr Field in 1992. The Liberal Democrat administration on the Isle of Wight proved particularly unpopular and this contributed to Dr Brand's defeat by Andrew Turner, who was also the Conservative candidate in 1997. Mr Turner's political career was rather chequered; in 2015 four former chairmen of the Isle of Wight Conservative Association called for his resignation as MP and his agent, David Walter, resigned a week before the election; the Liberal Democrats nevertheless collapsed spectacularly with UKIP taking second place and the Greens' Vix Lowthion third. In 2017, after claiming homosexuality "was not normal" when speaking to a group of schoolchildren, he stood down at the general election later that year and the seat's current Conservative MP, Bob Seely (whose great-great-uncle Jack was MP for this seat from 1900-06 and again from 1923-24) succeeded him. In 2017 and 2019 this seat was a top Green Party target but Ms Lowthion only managed third place in 2017, and in 2019 her vote share actually fell by 2.1% despite the Liberal Democrats standing down for her as part of the Unite to Remain alliance; unusually in 2019 the Labour vote actually increased by 1.3%, even though Labour have never been competitive on the Isle of Wight at any level.

I've noted this in these profiles before, but not commented. While nobody would claim great Labour strength on the island there has been a pretty consistent small Labour presence in local government for the last 20 years at least, and the most recent General Election results have demonstrated a fair amount of latent support after a pretty long squeeze to produce the Tory/Lib Dem marginal it has been.

I can also see no reference to the two-seat proposal that seems very likely to happen.

It is 10-years since LDs were in second place and 19-years since they were close.  They couldn't be bothered to stand in 2019 (in a seat they have held within memory?) as a favour to a flaccid no contest from a weak Green Party (all mouth and promises but a 3rd place on only 15%!) candidate. And Labour were within 6% in 1945 on a straight fight and in a very good year in a straight fight could gain a good vote. It was wrong to assert Labour have NEVER been competitive because they have.

[timrollpickering]

Apr 19, 2020 14:06:59 GMT greenhert said:

The Isle of Wight constituency has existed as a single constituency since the Great Reform Act of 1832, although from 1832-85 Newport was represented separately.

Not sure that's true given the way boroughs and counties interacted - surely Newport was part of the Isle of Wight seat as well?

and his agent, David Walter, resigned a week before the election;

Can the agent actually do that or are they locked in? I've seen all manner of contradictory claims on this over the years.

[therealriga]

Apr 19, 2020 14:06:59 GMT greenhert said:

Since 1983 it has been the largest constituency in the UK in terms of electorate, 

How big was Milton Keynes' electorate before being split at the 1992 election? SW MK did get some voters from Buckingham, but the unified MK seat can't have been far behind IOW.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The review worked on the basis of the electorate on 13 December 1988, which was 103,259 in Milton Keynes constituency (and 72,252 in Buckingham).

[therealriga]

Jun 26, 2020 14:02:45 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The review worked on the basis of the electorate on 13 December 1988, which was 103,259 in Milton Keynes constituency (and 72,252 in Buckingham).

Yes, just found the answer here :https://books.google.lv/books?id=N89RAQAAIAAJ&pg=PA123&lpg=PA123&dq=MILTON+KEYNES+ELECTORATE+BEFORE+BEING+SPLIT&source=bl&ots=mBb0DD-h5D&sig=ACfU3U1ioTaj7AcKV2INL_UVPR6EIXSsIw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjF2rSx0p_qAhWVrIsKHcvCCmkQ6AEwCnoECAcQAQ#v=onepage&q=MILTON%20KEYNES%20ELECTORATE%20BEFORE%20BEING%20SPLIT&f=false

Forgot to turn caps lock off, but it's exactly as you said. Since Milton Keynes had 103k and IOW had 98,649 in 1987 and 99,839 in 1992, the claim that IOW has had the largest electorate since 1983 isn't true.

[Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Stats update :
Owner-occupied - 70.1%, 217/650
Private rented - 17.4%, 188/650
Social rented - 10.7%, 556/650
White - 97.3%, 196/650
Black - 0.2%, 518/650
Asian - 1.1%, 486/650
Managerial & professional - 28.1%
Routine & Semi-routine - 28.8%
Degree level - 22.6%, 413/650
No qualifications - 24.3%, 281/650
Students - 5.7%,543/650
Age 65+ - 23.8%,25/650