Isle of Wight

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes but the point being made is that the freehold voters from Newport would also have had a vote in the Isle of Wight county division, therefore there was a single constituency of 'Isle of Wight' which covered the entire island, which is not to say that the island returned a single MP

[owainsutton]

Nov 22, 2022 17:16:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Yes but the point being made is that the freehold voters from Newport would also have had a vote in the Isle of Wight county division, therefore there was a single constituency of 'Isle of Wight' which covered the entire island, which is not to say that the island returned a single MP

Ah OK, I understand. Thanks.

[Robert Waller]

Jan 20, 2021 19:31:56 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Stats update :
Owner-occupied - 70.1%, 217/650
Private rented - 17.4%, 188/650
Social rented - 10.7%, 556/650
White - 97.3%, 196/650
Black - 0.2%, 518/650
Asian - 1.1%, 486/650
Managerial & professional - 28.1%
Routine & Semi-routine - 28.8%
Degree level - 22.6%, 413/650
No qualifications - 24.3%, 281/650
Students - 5.7%,543/650
Age 65+ - 23.8%,25/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 68.4% 217/573
Private rented 20.7% 186/573
Social rented 10.9% 477/573
White 97.0%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.2%
Managerial & professional 29.4% 357/573
Routine & Semi-routine 26.8% 188/573
Degree level 27.4% 413/573
No qualifications 18.5% 248/573

[nyx]

First Conservative to put their name forward for Isle of Wight East... former journalist Harriet Hadfield, who recently led an effort to get the local ferry company to run late night passenger services from Ryde to Portsmouth. Doesn’t sound like a bad candidate to me.

www.islandecho.co.uk/respected-journalist-vying-to-become-mp-for-the-isle-of-wight-at-next-general-election/

[andrewp]

Dec 24, 2022 20:33:28 GMT nyx said:

First Conservative to put their name forward for Isle of Wight East... former journalist Harriet Hadfield, who recently led an effort to get the local ferry company to run late night passenger services from Ryde to Portsmouth. Doesn’t sound like a bad candidate to me.

www.islandecho.co.uk/respected-journalist-vying-to-become-mp-for-the-isle-of-wight-at-next-general-election/

I think that’s the first time that I have seen it officially noted that Bob Seely is intending to go for West.

[Arthur Figgis]

Dec 24, 2022 20:33:28 GMT nyx said:

First Conservative to put their name forward for Isle of Wight East... former journalist Harriet Hadfield, who recently led an effort to get the local ferry company to run late night passenger services from Ryde to Portsmouth. Doesn’t sound like a bad candidate to me.

www.islandecho.co.uk/respected-journalist-vying-to-become-mp-for-the-isle-of-wight-at-next-general-election/

I misread that as Harry Hayfield. Nothing would surprise me.

[bsjmcr]

Nov 19, 2022 15:23:00 GMT nyx said:

The Isle of Wight has for a long time been one of the most populous constituencies in the country, with various proposals by boundary reviews to split the island. There was briefly a proposal around ten years ago to create a constituency partially on the Island and partially on the mainland, but after backlash it was decided in the abortive 2011 boundary review to create two constituencies for the Isle of Wight, a decision which carried over to subsequent boundary reviews too. 

Do you know what this island-mainland seat would have been? I can't seem to find anything and the 2011 initial proposals suggested a north/south divide with no suggestion of the mainland join idea. 

Of course Johnson Sr once represented 'Wight and Hampshire East' in Europe for a term. 

[nyx]

Jan 10, 2023 22:02:34 GMT bsjmcr said:

Nov 19, 2022 15:23:00 GMT nyx said:

The Isle of Wight has for a long time been one of the most populous constituencies in the country, with various proposals by boundary reviews to split the island. There was briefly a proposal around ten years ago to create a constituency partially on the Island and partially on the mainland, but after backlash it was decided in the abortive 2011 boundary review to create two constituencies for the Isle of Wight, a decision which carried over to subsequent boundary reviews too. 

Do you know what this island-mainland seat would have been? I can't seem to find anything and the 2011 initial proposals suggested a north/south divide with no suggestion of the mainland join idea. 

Of course Johnson Sr once represented 'Wight and Hampshire East' in Europe for a term. 

In the initial plans for the 2011 boundary review the Isle of Wight was not a protected seat. I remember this being discussed a decent amount in the Isle of Wight press at the time; unfortunately the Isle of Wight County Press doesn’t have articles that old easily accessible online any more and the only link I can find now is this: onthewight.com/andrew-turner-speaks-out-about-isle-of-wight-constituency-in-parliament/
Interesting thing from that article is that it looks like initially they hadn’t even planned to protect the Scottish island seats either!

The legislation as initially planned implicitly made a cross Solent seat necessary, as the Isle of Wight would have been far too big for one seat but too small for two. There were never any boundaries for such a seat officially drawn, as the public campaign against the idea meant the Isle of Wight exception was added before the legislation went through.

If I recall correctly (I was a child of twelve at the time and had only recently begun following the news), there was press speculation of a seat covering West Wight and part of the New Forest (geographically most proximity), or alternatively of one covering the Ryde area and part of Portsmouth/Southsea (probably the best “community of interest” cross Solent seat you could get). But neither of those had any official status.

[Khunanup]

Jan 10, 2023 22:46:36 GMT nyx said:

Jan 10, 2023 22:02:34 GMT bsjmcr said:

Do you know what this island-mainland seat would have been? I can't seem to find anything and the 2011 initial proposals suggested a north/south divide with no suggestion of the mainland join idea. 

Of course Johnson Sr once represented 'Wight and Hampshire East' in Europe for a term. 

In the initial plans for the 2011 boundary review the Isle of Wight was not a protected seat. I remember this being discussed a decent amount in the Isle of Wight press at the time; unfortunately the Isle of Wight County Press doesn’t have articles that old easily accessible online any more and the only link I can find now is this: onthewight.com/andrew-turner-speaks-out-about-isle-of-wight-constituency-in-parliament/
Interesting thing from that article is that it looks like initially they hadn’t even planned to protect the Scottish island seats either!

The legislation as initially planned implicitly made a cross Solent seat necessary, as the Isle of Wight would have been far too big for one seat but too small for two. There were never any boundaries for such a seat officially drawn, as the public campaign against the idea meant the Isle of Wight exception was added before the legislation went through.

If I recall correctly (I was a child of twelve at the time and had only recently begun following the news), there was press speculation of a seat covering West Wight and part of the New Forest (geographically most proximity), or alternatively of one covering the Ryde area and part of Portsmouth/Southsea (probably the best “community of interest” cross Solent seat you could get). But neither of those had any official status.

There was a narrative report I saw after the demise of the 2011 review where it told of the process that was worked on for cross Solent seats before the legislation was changed.

Their initial idea was to go down the Southsea/Ryde route but on reflection they then moved their focus to the Yarmouth/Lymington and hinterlands seat (it appeared to be a combination of their own volition and initial informal discussions with various stakeholders). Then of course the amendment to the legislation came so the work was abandoned.

[nyx]

Jan 15, 2023 22:01:04 GMT Khunanup said:

Their initial idea was to go down the Southsea/Ryde route but on reflection they then moved their focus to the Yarmouth/Lymington and hinterlands seat (it appeared to be a combination of their own volition and initial informal discussions with various stakeholders). Then of course the amendment to the legislation came so the work was abandoned.

The Yarmouth/Lymington idea could work nicely on the mainland side (allows for compact boundaries around Lymington/New Milton area without having to go further into the New Forest) but it would have been horrific on the Isle of Wight side. West Wight doesn’t have much population so you’d be forced to include one of: Cowes (hardly has very strong links to West Wight), half of Newport (geographically best proximity but cutting the main town on the island in half is not ideal), or Shanklin (even worse than the above two options).

The Ryde option would have been better on the Isle of Wight side but I suppose the objection would be the combination of urban Southsea with much more rural bits outside Ryde (you’d have to include Seaview and Bembridge to make up numbers). Really, the geography of the Isle of Wight’s population makes the east-west split that’s happening work well, but cutting a chunk off wouldn’t have worked well at all.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 19, 2022 19:41:07 GMT nyx said:

I added up the 2021 Council election results by the new seats.

Isle of Wight East:
Conservative 7669 (37.3%)
Independent 4845 (23.6%)
Labour 2722 (13.3%)
Our Island 1427 (6.9%)
Island Independent Network 1327 (6.5%)
Green 1162 (5.7%)
Vectis Party 886 (4.3%)
Liberal Democrat 501 (2.4%)
Turnout: 20539/56805 = 36.2%

Isle of Wight West:
Conservative 8156 (40.0%)
Independent 5136 (25.2%)
Green 3379 (16.6%)
Labour 2038 (10.0%)
Liberal Democrat 1638 (8.1%)
Turnout: 20347/54911 = 37.1%

There's actually quite a lot more variation than I expected- the Conservative presence being the same in both seats doesn't surprise me, but the difference in Labour vs Green support in each side of the Island wasn't a thing I expected to this extent. Would be interesting to see 2019 general election estimated results on the new boundaries, based on the local election results; I tried but it's pretty hard given the number of independents. But I do think those local election results could perhaps reinforce a feeling among local Greens that it's only worth seriously contesting the West constituency.

I had been meaning to do this for a while - as you say the erratic patterns of partisan participation in this area make it tricky to do this on the basis of a single set of local elections so I thought it worthwhile to study it over the long term, which helps to identify areas of consistent long term support for the various parties as well long term shifts (even there it doesn't help very much with the Green vote).

I also found it useful and informative to divide each of the new seats into three parts of roughly equal electorates (I have calculated all the results at ward level but that is too much information to present here).
On the new ward boundaries the areas are as below (due to ward boundary changes the areas don't always have exactly the same boundaries but are close enough to make comparisons meaningful (there are different sets of ward boundaries for 1974-92, 1997-2005 and 2010- and the wards used to build the new seats are different again))



The results might seem superficially surprising but shouldn't be when seen in the context of the above.  Isle of Wight West is dominated by the 'conurbations' of Newport and Cowes which were historically the weaker areas on the island for the Conservatives, with sizeable Labour support (transferred tactically to the Liberals over most of the period).  Ryde and Sandown Bay were much more Conservative inclined resort towns but Ryde in particular has tended to trend away from the Conservatives in the 21st Century.  This has caused some convergence between the two seats (as Cowes and Newport have also become more Tory) and the Conservatives would have won both seats in all elections this century.

In the seven elections of the late 20th Century however there is considerable divergence between the two seats.  While both will have voted Conservative in 1987 and both Liberal/LD in February 1974 and 1997, in all the other elections they voted differenty (that is to say in October 1974, 1979, 1983 and 1992, Isle of Wight East would have voted Conservative and Isle of Wight West Liberal/LD).  At the end of the period, despite considerable convergence, West does appear still to contain slightly the more left leaning electorate with higher votes for both the Labour and Green parties.  The only occasions that the Conservatives enjoyed a larger (%) lead in West than in East was in 2010 and 2015 (and in the latter year this was over UKIP).

tbc

[Pete Whitehead]

February 1974	Con	Lab	Lib		Majority	Con	Lab	Lib	Majority
Cowes	3983	1759	6693			32.0%	14.1%	53.8%
Newport	3330	1807	6114			29.6%	16.1%	54.3%
West Wight	5002	831	5313			44.9%	7.5%	47.7%
Isle of Wight West	12314	4397	18120		5806	35.4%	12.6%	52.0%	16.7%
Ryde	5195	1161	6244			41.2%	9.2%	49.6%
Sandown-Shanklin	4047	921	4401			43.2%	9.8%	47.0%
East Wight	5486	1017	6042			43.7%	8.1%	48.2%
Isle of Wight East	14728	3098	16687		1960	42.7%	9.0%	48.4%	5.7%

October 1974	Con	Lab	Lib		Majority	Con	Lab	Lib	Majority
Cowes	4073	2010	5738			34.5%	17.0%	48.5%
Newport	3406	2064	5225			31.8%	19.3%	48.9%
West Wight	5116	949	4530			48.3%	9.0%	42.8%
Isle of Wight West	12594	5023	15492		2898	38.0%	15.2%	46.8%	8.8%
Ryde	5313	1326	5338			44.4%	11.1%	44.6%
Sandown-Shanklin	4139	1052	3715			46.5%	11.8%	41.7%
East Wight	5611	1161	5152			47.1%	9.7%	43.2%
Isle of Wight East	15063	3539	14205		858	45.9%	10.8%	43.3%	2.6%

1979	Con	Lab	Lib		Majority	Con	Lab	Lib	Majority
Cowes	5097	676	6987			39.9%	5.3%	54.8%
Newport	4422	680	6521			38.0%	5.8%	56.1%
West Wight	6768	391	5514			53.4%	3.1%	43.5%
Isle of Wight West	16287	1747	19022		2735	44.0%	4.7%	51.3%	7.4%
Ryde	6674	429	6249			50.0%	3.2%	46.8%
Sandown-Shanklin	5368	402	4311			53.2%	4.0%	42.8%
East Wight	7209	436	6308			51.7%	3.1%	45.2%
Isle of Wight East	19250	1267	16867		2383	51.5%	3.4%	45.1%	6.4%

[Pete Whitehead]

1983	Con	Lab	Lib	Oth	Majority	Con	Lab	Lib	Oth	Majority
Cowes	5084	383	7202	39		40.0%	3.0%	56.7%	0.3%
Newport	4595	428	7433	41		36.8%	3.4%	59.5%	0.3%
West Wight	6671	239	5888	32		52.0%	1.9%	45.9%	0.2%
Isle of Wight West	16350	1049	20523	112	4173	43.0%	2.8%	54.0%	0.3%	11.0%
Ryde	6119	254	6508	35		47.4%	2.0%	50.4%	0.3%
Sandown-Shanklin	5127	254	4844	26		50.0%	2.5%	47.3%	0.3%
East Wight	7307	271	6532	35		51.7%	1.9%	46.2%	0.2%
Isle of Wight East	18554	779	17883	96	670	49.7%	2.1%	47.9%	0.3%	1.8%

1987	Con	Lab	Lib	Majority	Con	Lab	Lib	Majority
Cowes	6028	940	6168		45.9%	7.2%	47.0%
Newport	5278	1044	6058		42.6%	8.4%	48.9%
West Wight	7645	603	5359		56.2%	4.4%	39.4%
Isle of Wight West	18952	2588	17585	1367	48.4%	6.6%	44.9%	3.5%
Ryde	7341	704	5780		53.1%	5.1%	41.8%
Sandown-Shanklin	5691	646	4484		52.6%	6.0%	41.4%
East Wight	8192	688	5884		55.5%	4.7%	39.9%
Isle of Wight East	21224	2038	16148	5076	53.9%	5.2%	41.0%	12.9%

1992	Con	Lab	LD	Oth	Majority	Con	Lab	LD	Oth	Majority
Cowes	5631	997	6335	63		43.2%	7.7%	48.6%	0.5%
Newport	5156	1078	6414	64		40.6%	8.5%	50.5%	0.5%
West Wight	7449	621	6039	56		52.6%	4.4%	42.6%	0.4%
Isle of Wight West	18237	2697	18788	183	551	45.7%	6.8%	47.1%	0.5%	1.4%
Ryde	6958	720	6096	58		50.3%	5.2%	44.1%	0.4%
Sandown-Shanklin	5314	690	4989	48		48.1%	6.2%	45.2%	0.4%
East Wight	7654	678	6463	61		51.5%	4.6%	43.5%	0.4%
Isle of Wight East	19926	2087	17548	167	2378	50.2%	5.3%	44.2%	0.4%	6.0%

[Pete Whitehead]

1997	Con	Lab	LD	Ref	Oth	Majority	Con	Lab	LD	Ref	Oth	Majority
Cowes	3399	1923	4813	709	417		30.2%	17.1%	42.7%	6.3%	3.7%
Newport	2728	2157	4961	675	420		24.9%	19.7%	45.3%	6.2%	3.8%
West Wight	4603	932	5313	812	423		38.1%	7.7%	44.0%	6.7%	3.5%
Isle of Wight West	10731	5013	15087	2196	1260	4356	31.3%	14.6%	44.0%	6.4%	3.7%	12.7%
Ryde	4383	1424	5737	844	463		34.1%	11.1%	44.6%	6.6%	3.6%
Sandown-Shanklin	3750	1603	4069	667	372		35.8%	15.3%	38.9%	6.4%	3.6%
East Wight	6005	1607	6381	1028	542		38.6%	10.3%	41.0%	6.6%	3.5%
Isle of Wight East	14138	4634	16186	2538	1377	2049	36.4%	11.9%	41.6%	6.5%	3.5%	5.3%

2001	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Oth	Majority	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Oth	Majority
Cowes	3494	1997	3304	313	641		35.8%	20.5%	33.9%	3.2%	6.6%
Newport	2955	2139	3363	297	635		31.5%	22.8%	35.8%	3.2%	6.8%
West Wight	4891	849	3821	367	653		46.2%	8.0%	36.1%	3.5%	6.2%
Isle of Wight West	11340	4985	10489	977	1929	851	38.2%	16.8%	35.3%	3.3%	6.5%	2.9%
Ryde	4164	1319	4550	378	731		37.4%	11.8%	40.8%	3.4%	6.6%
Sandown-Shanklin	3608	1792	2760	291	576		40.0%	19.9%	30.6%	3.2%	6.4%
East Wight	6110	1580	4598	461	843		45.0%	11.6%	33.8%	3.4%	6.2%
Isle of Wight East	13882	4691	11908	1130	2150	1975	41.1%	13.9%	35.3%	3.3%	6.4%	5.8%

2005	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Oth	Majority	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Oth	Majority
Cowes	4633	2328	2860	350	86		45.2%	22.7%	27.9%	3.4%	0.8%
Newport	4062	2572	2972	337	87		40.5%	25.6%	29.6%	3.4%	0.9%
West Wight	6261	944	3449	411	89		56.1%	8.5%	30.9%	3.7%	0.8%
Isle of Wight West	14955	5844	9281	1098	262	5674	47.6%	18.6%	29.5%	3.5%	0.8%	18.0%
Ryde	5222	1547	4010	405	95		46.3%	13.7%	35.5%	3.6%	0.8%
Sandown-Shanklin	4650	2208	2374	328	79		48.2%	22.9%	24.6%	3.4%	0.8%
East Wight	7890	1885	4074	521	115		54.5%	13.0%	28.1%	3.6%	0.8%
Isle of Wight East	17761	5640	10458	1254	289	7304	50.2%	15.9%	29.5%	3.5%	0.8%	20.6%

[Pete Whitehead]

2010	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Oth	Majority	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Oth	Majority
Cowes	5257	1354	3120	497	870		47.4%	12.2%	28.1%	4.5%	7.8%
Newport	4479	1820	3422	311	634		42.0%	17.1%	32.1%	2.9%	5.9%
West Wight	6161	890	4169	393	820		49.6%	7.2%	33.5%	3.2%	6.6%
Isle of Wight West	15897	4063	10711	1201	2325	5186	46.5%	11.9%	31.3%	3.5%	6.8%	15.2%
Ryde	4209	1226	4121	304	580		40.3%	11.7%	39.5%	2.9%	5.6%
Sandown-Shanklin	5071	1433	2867	401	721		48.3%	13.7%	27.3%	3.8%	6.9%
East Wight	7632	1447	4584	530	942		50.4%	9.6%	30.3%	3.5%	6.2%
Isle of Wight East	16912	4106	11572	1235	2242	5340	46.9%	11.4%	32.1%	3.4%	6.2%	14.8%

2015	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn	Ind	Majority	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn	Ind	Majority
Cowes	4716	1578	731	2286	1473	497		41.8%	14.0%	6.5%	20.3%	13.1%	4.4%
Newport	4118	1938	816	2004	1482	484		38.0%	17.9%	7.5%	18.5%	13.7%	4.5%
West Wight	5149	1024	1003	2562	1899	565		42.2%	8.4%	8.2%	21.0%	15.6%	4.6%
Isle of Wight West	13982	4539	2550	6852	4854	1546	7130	40.7%	13.2%	7.4%	20.0%	14.1%	4.5%	20.8%
Ryde	4001	1474	994	2026	1602	498		37.8%	13.9%	9.4%	19.1%	15.1%	4.7%
Sandown-Shanklin	4493	1483	681	2225	1237	469		42.4%	14.0%	6.4%	21.0%	11.7%	4.4%
East Wight	6114	1488	1009	3784	1711	685		41.3%	10.1%	6.8%	25.6%	11.6%	4.6%
Isle of Wight East	14608	4445	2685	8036	4550	1652	6573	40.6%	12.4%	7.5%	22.3%	12.6%	4.6%	18.3%

2017	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn	Ind	Majority	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn	Ind	Majority
Cowes	5992	2921	403	317	2188	254		49.6%	24.2%	3.3%	2.6%	18.1%	2.1%
Newport	5524	3336	461	263	1980	254		46.7%	28.2%	3.9%	2.2%	16.8%	2.1%
West Wight	7054	2546	564	310	2276	286		54.1%	19.5%	4.3%	2.4%	17.5%	2.2%
Isle of Wight West	18570	8803	1428	890	6444	794	9767	50.3%	23.8%	3.9%	2.4%	17.5%	2.2%	26.4%
Ryde	4975	2705	421	245	2217	232		46.1%	25.1%	3.9%	2.3%	20.5%	2.1%
Sandown-Shanklin	6066	2560	354	288	1685	233		54.2%	22.9%	3.2%	2.6%	15.1%	2.1%
East Wight	8581	3052	538	499	2568	332		55.1%	19.6%	3.5%	3.2%	16.5%	2.1%
Isle of Wight East	19622	8317	1312	1031	6470	798	11305	52.3%	22.1%	3.5%	2.7%	17.2%	2.1%	30.1%

2019	Con	Lab	Grn	Ind	Majority	Con	Lab	Grn	Ind	Majority
Cowes	6525	3174	1860	510		54.1%	26.3%	15.4%	4.2%
Newport	5919	3543	1838	513		50.1%	30.0%	15.6%	4.3%
West Wight	7665	2548	2244	572		58.8%	19.6%	17.2%	4.4%
Isle of Wight West	20109	9265	5941	1595	10844	54.5%	25.1%	16.1%	4.3%	29.4%
Ryde	5472	2980	1860	476		50.7%	27.6%	17.2%	4.4%
Sandown-Shanklin	6634	2662	1415	469		59.3%	23.8%	12.7%	4.2%
East Wight	9600	3172	2121	670		61.7%	20.4%	13.6%	4.3%
Isle of Wight East	21707	8813	5396	1616	12893	57.8%	23.5%	14.4%	4.3%	34.4%

[Deleted]

The last couple of elections really have been abnormally good for the Conservatives on the island haven’t they?
Makes me wary of an above average snap back next time.

[Pete Whitehead]

It's also notable that all the Labour, Lib Dem and Green councillors on the island (5 in total following a Lib Dem byelection gain) are in the West constituency (and the councillor for Pan & Barton (Newport), though elected as an Independent sits as 'Independent Labour')

[nyx]

Very nice to see some stats– thanks for that.

Feb 20, 2023 4:45:36 GMT @johnyorks said:

The last couple of elections really have been abnormally good for the Conservatives on the island haven’t they?
Makes me wary of an above average snap back next time.

Bob Seely is popular (moreso than Turner was, I think) and I’ve heard the opposition parties were quite focused on attacking each other in recent elections. But yes, I could easily see a good swing against the Tories next election.

[The Bishop]

Feb 21, 2023 10:23:02 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It's also notable that all the Labour, Lib Dem and Green councillors on the island (5 in total following a Lib Dem byelection gain) are in the West constituency (and the councillor for Pan & Barton (Newport), though elected as an Independent sits as 'Independent Labour')

Though before that they were Labour, for some time their only councillor on the island.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 21, 2023 11:20:39 GMT The Bishop said:

Feb 21, 2023 10:23:02 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It's also notable that all the Labour, Lib Dem and Green councillors on the island (5 in total following a Lib Dem byelection gain) are in the West constituency (and the councillor for Pan & Barton (Newport), though elected as an Independent sits as 'Independent Labour')

Though before that they were Labour, for some time their only councillor on the island.

Yes and that ward (or Newport East as was) is the only ward I have as having voted Labour at each of the last three general elections (all other wards being carried by the Conservatives). Naturally I visited this area the last time I was on the island (a long time ago now) and it is pretty grim.