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Post by froome on Feb 6, 2013 22:44:24 GMT
BTW I am totally convinced this will be a safe LD hold now I'm worried  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 6, 2013 22:54:27 GMT
ah OK ... well UKIP are surely NOT THIS STUPID Paul Waugh @paulwaugh Gyles Brandreth says Neil Hamilton is here and if he gets enough signatures he will stand for UKIP in Eastleigh.#PBAwards It's just too delicious to think about. Conservative Central Office must be pissing themselves laughing at that one (those who are old enough to remember Hamilton). So what's the UKIPer slogan "Vote for the Crook, it's important" Nah, it'll be "Vote for the Crook. No, not that one, he's resigned" |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 7, 2013 0:47:20 GMT
I note our UKIP friends are saying nothing about Farage the chicken. I thought that my initial post on the matter expressed my opinion quite clearly for those who are capable of reading between the lines. Of course Farage's decision not to stand has nothing to do with cowardice and anyone who thinks it does completely misunderstands the man. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Eastleigh
Feb 7, 2013 10:43:59 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2013 10:43:59 GMT
The NHS Action Party is considering standing here.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 7, 2013 10:48:05 GMT
I realise that is perhaps a strange way of looking at it, but taking into account the swings in opinion polls since the general election, I think we have a fight on our hands (and would be interested to see what the experts make of this).
- 11% swing from Liberal Democrat to Labour (Con 39%, Lib Dem 36%, Lab 21%, Others 4%) Con GAIN from Lib Dem
- 3% swing from Liberal Democrat to Conservative (Con 42%, Lib Dem 33%, Lab 21%, Others 4%) Con GAIN from Lib Dem
- 8% swing from Conservative to Labour (Con 34%, Lib Dem 33%, Lab 29%, Others 4%) Too close to call
Of course that's before we start getting other parties involved such as UKIP, Greens, BNP and as is so often the case now a local Independent, but what I am confident about is that whoever wins they are going to do so by a squeaker.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 7, 2013 10:55:04 GMT
I realise that is perhaps a strange way of looking at it, but taking into account the swings in opinion polls since the general election, I think we have a fight on our hands (and would be interested to see what the experts make of this).
- 11% swing from Liberal Democrat to Labour (Con 39%, Lib Dem 36%, Lab 21%, Others 4%) Con GAIN from Lib Dem
- 3% swing from Liberal Democrat to Conservative (Con 42%, Lib Dem 33%, Lab 21%, Others 4%) Con GAIN from Lib Dem
- 8% swing from Conservative to Labour (Con 34%, Lib Dem 33%, Lab 29%, Others 4%) Too close to call
Of course that's before we start getting other parties involved such as UKIP, Greens, BNP and as is so often the case now a local Independent, but what I am confident about is that whoever wins they are going to do so by a squeaker.
You're right it is a strange way to look at it as you're adding swings which are part of the same changes, so you're final figures equate to a 16.5% swing LD to Lab, 4.5% LD to Con and 12% Con to Lab. |
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 7, 2013 11:02:18 GMT
ah OK ... well UKIP are surely NOT THIS STUPID Paul Waugh @paulwaugh Gyles Brandreth says Neil Hamilton is here and if he gets enough signatures he will stand for UKIP in Eastleigh.#PBAwards I do hope this rumour is true, surely UKIP have far better candidates than Neil Hamilton. They selected an excellent candidate for Barnsley and Rotherham, surely it shouldn't be that difficult to select a half decent candidate for Eastleigh? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,788
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Post by john07 on Feb 7, 2013 12:04:45 GMT
ah OK ... well UKIP are surely NOT THIS STUPID Paul Waugh @paulwaugh Gyles Brandreth says Neil Hamilton is here and if he gets enough signatures he will stand for UKIP in Eastleigh.#PBAwards Will he bring his deposit in a brown envelope? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 7, 2013 12:16:55 GMT
I realise that is perhaps a strange way of looking at it, but taking into account the swings in opinion polls since the general election, I think we have a fight on our hands (and would be interested to see what the experts make of this).
- 11% swing from Liberal Democrat to Labour (Con 39%, Lib Dem 36%, Lab 21%, Others 4%) Con GAIN from Lib Dem
- 3% swing from Liberal Democrat to Conservative (Con 42%, Lib Dem 33%, Lab 21%, Others 4%) Con GAIN from Lib Dem
- 8% swing from Conservative to Labour (Con 34%, Lib Dem 33%, Lab 29%, Others 4%) Too close to call
Of course that's before we start getting other parties involved such as UKIP, Greens, BNP and as is so often the case now a local Independent, but what I am confident about is that whoever wins they are going to do so by a squeaker.
You're right it is a strange way to look at it as you're adding swings which are part of the same changes, so you're final figures equate to a 16.5% swing LD to Lab, 4.5% LD to Con and 12% Con to Lab. Figures of LD 37, Con 35, Lab 22 would work for all three national swings that you are talking about, Harry. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 7, 2013 13:20:15 GMT
On the previous setup if you clicked on a link it would always open in a new tab but now it opens in the same one which is a bit annoying. Anyway I think Luke Akehurst is right. I wouldn't get too hung up on local election results here, as my earlier post indicated there are an awful lot of voters here who vote LD locally but vote differently nationally and there is without doubt a large basic Labour vote which has voted tactically LD in both local and national elections Eastleigh itself is of course an old railway town and not the nicest of places. More akin to Crewe or Derby than somewhere your stereotypical town in the South East. I would point out to the Hon Member that Crewe is a nice place! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Eastleigh
Feb 7, 2013 13:22:30 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2013 13:22:30 GMT
Eastleigh itself is of course an old railway town and not the nicest of places. More akin to Crewe or Derby than somewhere your stereotypical town in the South East. I would point out to the Hon Member that Crewe is a nice place! It's railway station, however, is not... |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 7, 2013 13:29:36 GMT
ah OK ... well UKIP are surely NOT THIS STUPID Paul Waugh @paulwaugh Gyles Brandreth says Neil Hamilton is here and if he gets enough signatures he will stand for UKIP in Eastleigh.#PBAwards I do hope this rumour is true, surely UKIP have far better candidates than Neil Hamilton. They selected an excellent candidate for Barnsley and Rotherham, surely it shouldn't be that difficult to select a half decent candidate for Eastleigh?
But this is UKIP! Perhaps Mike Nattrass? He could repeat his Crewe 2008 ploy of featuring a poem about railways on his election literature - worked well there! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 7, 2013 13:30:46 GMT
I would point out to the Hon Member that Crewe is a nice place! It's railway station, however, is not... It's pretty good if you're a trainspotter though  |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 7, 2013 13:48:24 GMT
Eastleigh itself is of course an old railway town and not the nicest of places. More akin to Crewe or Derby than somewhere your stereotypical town in the South East. I would point out to the Hon Member that Crewe is a nice place! That took longer than I expected!  I've never grown to love Crewe though, whereas I genuinely like Derby. I have odd taste. |
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Post by stepney on Feb 7, 2013 13:49:35 GMT
But this is UKIP! Perhaps Mike Nattrass? He could repeat his Crewe 2008 ploy of featuring a poem about railways on his election literature - worked well there! Ooh! Well remembered. I've just dug that out of my little library of literature, and I think it bears repeating: More of this sort of thing, please. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Eastleigh
Feb 7, 2013 14:32:47 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2013 14:32:47 GMT
This (unofficial (?)) UKip poster is going around Twitter RT @marty_Caine: Feb 28th will give the people of #Eastleigh a chance to tell our politicians that enough is enough! #VoteUKIP twitpic.com/c1kba6 |
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 7, 2013 15:14:48 GMT
Rumours of two other candidates in circulation:
Richard Lowe, former UKIP PPC for Chester who left the party over the Ollyshambles, either as an independent or a small Libertarian party.
Lembit Opik is reportedly offering himself for the Lib Dem nomination.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 7, 2013 15:16:39 GMT
Lembit Opik is reportedly offering himself for the Lib Dem nomination. Superb! |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Feb 7, 2013 15:18:03 GMT
LD selection on Saturday.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2013 15:53:05 GMT
surely LAB selection is the next 7 days ?
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