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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 1, 2013 9:12:00 GMT
Somehow I wouldn't have expected that an IQ test style question would be your forte ian
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 9:18:35 GMT
the better UKIP do, the better for us, unless you Pete really think in marginals a decent UKIP vote will harm Labour more than tory ?
Nice to hear Clegg just that he repeated a Claire Perry line that sitting govt#s never win byelections, obviously the time between 1997 and 2010 is something they forget.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Mar 1, 2013 9:46:03 GMT
Terrible performance by LD I'm so glad I didn't read that last night - I never would have got to sleep after laughing like this  |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 9:51:13 GMT
so funny listening to the radio 5 phone in with Roger Helmer trying to say UKIP are a party of liberty that want to ban the Burka and yet allow a minority of smokers to pollute others air
then an whole bunch claim UKIP will totally ban immigration which is of course is NOT their policy as it would totally cripple the UK economy and Farage knows it.
typical protest party, facing all ways
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 9:55:27 GMT
and now a UKIP rep in the west midlands peddling the myth the bedroom tax will push out pensioners for immigrants to be housed
Don#t UKIP want to cut the state, they should be supporting the bedroom tax
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 1, 2013 11:04:23 GMT
Ecxcellent result for the LibDems, in all the circumstances particularly so. Brilliant result for UKIP without any doubt and one which Cameron would be foolish to ignore, although there is undoubtedly an element of being the recipients of protest votes against the main government party in a strong LibDem seat and where Labour fielded an absolutely appalling candidate. Good and bad result for the Conservatives. Clegg is stabilised but then they might have thought they could win it with the LibDems apparently bveing so nationally loathed.....something I don't believe by the way. Appalling night for Labour and their abysmally awful candidate.....I doubt they expected much else though. So an "appalling" result for us in a seat we basically don't give a toss about - but merely "bad" (or, God help us, "good and bad") for your party when you came third somewhere you *have* to win to have any real chance of that fabled overall majority??  Are you Dan Hodges?  |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 1, 2013 11:18:49 GMT
LD got 32.1% in Feb 2013 and won AV got 32.1% in May 2011 and lost The Liberals also got 32% in 1987 and lost by over 13,000. David Cameron has succeeded in splitting the Conservative vote down the middleThat's weak by your standards, Pete - I wonder how much of the UKIP vote would have gone Conservative without a UKIP candidate or with a harder line on Europe/less socially liberal Conservative party. Possibly enough to give them the seat (the LD vote and Labour votes would also be considerably up), but i would guess that at least half, probably more of the UKIP vote is a combination of the plague on all your houses/none of the above types, and the anti-government tactical/protest votes that Labour managed not to reap the benefits of here. Then you'd have those who Cameron has driven from the conservatives for being too socially liberal, then those who Europe was an issue for, a small core of UKIP voters who may never have voted Tory and a small number of voters for whom there was no further right option. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 1, 2013 11:19:14 GMT
A terrible result. You could say this result is UKIP's version of Roy Jenkins in Warrington in 1981. Could UKIP be doing to the Conservatives what the SDP did to Labour? We'll see what the impact of this will be in national opinion polls but the chances of a Labour landslide under Ed Miliband just got stronger. If Labour do win by a landslide in 2015 it will be no good blaming UKIP. The fault will lie with the Conservative Party that has abandoned and derided much of its own support base and proven to be utterly incompetent in government. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 11:29:11 GMT
Terrible performance by LD I'm so glad I didn't read that last night - I never would have got to sleep after laughing like this If you view losing 15% of the total vote or roughly 1 in 3 of your own voters as good then fair enough. I guess its a matter of low expectations. I'm certainly not happy with our loss of votes. I'm always amused when everyone lowers expectations then claims they've done well with whatever results they have. I'll be honest, we did absolutely terribly and the worst of the 3 main parties, it was a poor performance by the Liberals and we still failed to get a decent LD->Tory swing. Ill gently put out the prediction that UKIP will walk the european elections by 10% over labour, who will in turn easily beat us. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 11:37:48 GMT
A terrible result. You could say this result is UKIP's version of Roy Jenkins in Warrington in 1981. Could UKIP be doing to the Conservatives what the SDP did to Labour? We'll see what the impact of this will be in national opinion polls but the chances of a Labour landslide under Ed Miliband just got stronger. If Labour do win by a landslide in 2015 it will be no good blaming UKIP. The fault will lie with the Conservative Party that has abandoned and derided much of its own support base and proven to be utterly incompetent in government. you mean a dwindling support base Richard. The UKIP rep in the West mids I referenced earlier admitted the vast majority of those interested in you were elderly. We saw in 2010 that the Tories even with everything going for them could not get 40%. It is not as simple as Tories + UKIP not now ... Tories picked int his election someone who could have quite easily been your candidate and we have seen LD advances in local by elections on the Tory vote. They are in serious problems and blaming it all on gay marriage as Bob Stewart and Gerald Howarth did is all part of the problem. |
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Post by marksenior on Mar 1, 2013 11:39:14 GMT
A few brief comments
Lib Dems - A good result in the circumstances , a concerted media effort re Rennard with the primary aim of hurting the Lib Dems failed .
The majority a bit smaller than I hoped for , I thought we may get to 15,000 votes . We went for the safe option in our choice
of candidate , I think we would have done a bit better if we had gone for Louise Bloom .
UKIP - A bit better than I expected , their candidate was very personable and won her and her party many votes which would not have gone
to Farage if he had stood . This despite her holding some unpleasant views on immigration which particularly surfaced in the final
hustings .
Conservatives - A poor performance and a campaign that wasted the resources of having a vast number of activists/campaigners .
Labour - A joke campaign and a deservedly bad result . Perhaps it does not matter in the larger scheme of winning a GE but Labour support
in the polls is softer than the lead suggests . Labour had few strong wards in the constituency but went backwards in those
polling in 3rd place in these behind both LD and UKIP
Others - Stupple 5th as predicted much of his support coming from Boorley Homes NIMBYS .
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Post by thirdchill on Mar 1, 2013 11:47:07 GMT
Some thoughts of how this is for the four parties:
Lib Dems - Good result in that they held the seat, the majority wasn't too bad either given the circumstances. Only bad point was the decline in vote share and vote numbers. Good local targeting helped them to hold the seat.
UKIP - Excellent night for them, and I don't think it can be spun any other way. The only way it could have been better is if they had gained the seat but that wasn't expected anyway. Nigel Farage might have been better known but their candidate was very good. Perhaps they did get plenty of protest votes but it is still significant that it was UKIP and not labour who gained them.
Conservatives - Not good and third place is rubbish, but I don't think that was the fault of the candidate, she really tried very hard. The only good thing was that the lib dems won instead of UKIP. If UKIP had won then there would have been very serious problems.
Labour - Not a good result for them either (a barely noticeable increase in percentage) but unlike the conservatives this really isn't a seat that matters to them.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 1, 2013 11:50:46 GMT
If Labour do win by a landslide in 2015 it will be no good blaming UKIP. The fault will lie with the Conservative Party that has abandoned and derided much of its own support base and proven to be utterly incompetent in government. you mean a dwindling support base Richard. The UKIP rep in the West mids I referenced earlier admitted the vast majority of those interested in you were elderly. We saw in 2010 that the Tories even with everything going for them could not get 40%. It is not as simple as Tories + UKIP not now ... Tories picked int his election someone who could have quite easily been your candidate and we have seen LD advances in local by elections on the Tory vote. They are in serious problems and blaming it all on gay marriage as Bob Stewart and Gerald Howarth did is all part of the problem. 1. I have never claimed that it is as simple as Tories + UKIP. In fact I have frequently argued against it 2. Who is the "UKIP rep in the West mids" that you are referring to? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 11:55:12 GMT
he was on Radio 5 and claimed to be the UKIP west Mids young chair I think ... prob was I never caught his name ..
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 1, 2013 11:56:21 GMT
The Liberals also got 32% in 1987 and lost by over 13,000. David Cameron has succeeded in splitting the Conservative vote down the middleThat's weak by your standards, Pete - I wonder how much of the UKIP vote would have gone Conservative without a UKIP candidate or with a harder line on Europe/less socially liberal Conservative party.... You miss my point. I am taking the Nigel Farage line - "If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote we would have won." Obviously I am not bemoaning UKIP voters voting for UKIP rather than for the Conservatives |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 1, 2013 12:01:07 GMT
That's weak by your standards, Pete - I wonder how much of the UKIP vote would have gone Conservative without a UKIP candidate or with a harder line on Europe/less socially liberal Conservative party.... You miss my point. I am taking the Nigel Farage line - "If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote we would have won." Obviously I am not bemoaning UKIP voters voting for UKIP rather than for the Conservatives I missed that one. Did Farage manage to say that with a straight face? Sorry, I take that back - does Farage manage to say anything with a straight face  |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 12:02:19 GMT
You miss my point. I am taking the Nigel Farage line - "If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote we would have won." Obviously I am not bemoaning UKIP voters voting for UKIP rather than for the Conservatives I missed that one. Did Farage manage to say that with a straight face? Sorry, I take that back - does Farage manage to say anything with a straight face "I like Belgium." |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 1, 2013 12:05:42 GMT
I can't see how any of the three main parties can be remotely happy with the result as it was.
Lib Dems - Very poor share of the vote, in a seat where they are the only party to have any councillors (are there any others in the country?). With such a short time frame, no other party had the time to get organised enough to get the required canvass data, which the Lib Dems already had.
Conservatives - Dreadful performance in a seat they should be performing better in. While the lack of councillors in the seat will have massively affected their local organisation, the possibility of a by-election here has been in the air for quite some time. Coming 3rd has more of a psychological effect than the share of the vote, given that it dropped by less that the Lib Dems.
Labour - 0.2% increase in the vote compared to an election with plenty of anti-Labour tactical voting. Should have advanced purely on that basis, let alone by picking up any anti-government tactical voting.
Were I grading the parties' performances in this election, I'd go something along the lines of:
Lib Dems C
UKIP A
Conservatives D
Labour C
Green U
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 1, 2013 12:16:23 GMT
Amongst the minor parties, I note that TUSC had their now customary comedy score - only more so |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 12:18:39 GMT
Amongst the minor parties, I note that TUSC had their now customary comedy score - only more so I follow some TUSC supporters on Twitter. It's brilliant watching them ramp up their chances (such as in the recent Wirral council by-elections) and then go stone-cold quiet for a few days after polling day. |
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