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Post by marksenior on Feb 28, 2013 19:27:33 GMT
Have just been chatting with Chris Took , the LD agent in Ashford . He is anticipating a Labour vote of under 25% and expects the 2 Indie candidates to poll well ( they are both ex Labour . He also adds that the Conservative candidate in the previous byelection is now in jail for fraud .
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 28, 2013 20:54:04 GMT
Electoral fraud - nine of the signatures on his nomination papers were forged. ASHFORD, BEAVER: Lab 36 C 19 Ashford Ind 18 LD 17 UKIP 7 Grn 3 SURBITON, BERRYLANDS: LD 39 C 33 Lab 14 UKIP 9 Grn 5 WIRRAL, PENSBY AND THINGWALL: Lab 35 C 25 LD 22 UKIP 12 Grn 3 EDP 3 NORTH LANARKSHIRE, COATBRIDGE WEST: Lab 76 SNP 20 C 2 LD 1 UKIP 1 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 28, 2013 21:17:12 GMT
Just 9 entries this week with Tonyotim and dibs AWOL again
Kingston Berrylands - 8 LD holds majority ranging from 2% (Mark Senior) to 20% (Robert Waller) with Pete Whitehead alone predicting a Conservative gain
Wirral Pensby & Thingwall - 7 Labour gains majority ranging from 3.1% to 10% with EastAnglianLefty and Pete Whitehead predicting a narrow Conservative hold
Ashford Beaver - 100% Labour hold majority over the Conservatives ranging from 9% (Greatkingrat) to 20% (EastAnglianLefty) with Pete Whitehead predicting the LDs in second place
North Lanarkshire - Coatbridge - 100% Labour hold with SNP second majority ranging from 25% (Hempie) to 56% (Andrew Teale)
Averages
Kingston upon Thames LB - Berrylands
LD 40.7%
Con 33.6%
Lab 13.5%
UKIP 7.9%
Grn 4.4%
Wirral MB - Pensby & Thingwall
Lab 32.7%
Con 29.1%
LD 22.5%
UKIP 10.1%
Grn 3.5%
ED 2.0%
Ashford BC - Beaver
Lab 35.7%
Con 21.4%
LD 15.2%
UKIP 11.0%
Ash Ind 10.5%
Ind 3.2%
Grn 3.0%
North Lanarkshire - Coatbridge West
Lab 69.7%
SNP 22.7%
Con 3.1%
UKIP 2.4%
LD 2.1%
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 28, 2013 22:04:58 GMT
Have just been chatting with Chris Took , the LD agent in Ashford . He is anticipating a Labour vote of under 25% and expects the 2 Indie candidates to poll well ( they are both ex Labour . He also adds that the Conservative candidate in the previous byelection is now in jail for fraud . They weren't Labour any time recently - the Indie was an Ashford Independent in 2003 and 2007, and the current Ashford Independent had the same ballot designation in 2007. I therefore doubt their previous affiliation is going to be particularly germane, particularly since neither of them are local to the ward. Which is not to say that they won't have an impact, just that if they do it'll have very little to do with them once having been Labour. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 28, 2013 22:42:18 GMT
Electoral fraud - nine of the signatures on his nomination papers were forged. Not just that; he was also trying to pull a postal vote fraud, but was caught in the act: www.thisiskent.co.uk/Ashford-landlord-jailed-rigging-election/story-18091007-detail/story.htmlThe rest of the Ashford Conservative Association don't appear to have been implicated in the slightest, and with a prominent government minister as their MP I would have thought it almost certain that they would have stopped him if they had known. Nonetheless the bad publicity may damage them. |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 28, 2013 23:21:13 GMT
Been out all day only returned after 10 pm. I have greatkingrat with 8 additional faults for adding to 108% on the Wirral whilst Pete Whitehead has 0.1 additional fault for adding to 100.1 in Ashford.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 28, 2013 23:28:44 GMT
Apologies for pre-empting you. I thought you had gone AWOL again as well. I tend not to involve myself with additional faults
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 28, 2013 23:38:54 GMT
Apologies for pre-empting you. I thought you had gone AWOL again as well. I tend not to involve myself with additional faults You did your best to involve yourself in them this week.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 28, 2013 23:44:17 GMT
If I did my best then a return of 0.1 isn't much to show for it  (I might manage a bit more on the wrong winner faults though) |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 28, 2013 23:52:10 GMT
Ashford, Beaver
Robert Waller 13.5 faults, Hempie 14.3, Mark Senior 16.0, East Anglian Lefty 16.6, Arthur Figgis 23.4, Pete Whitehead 24.3+0.1, greatkingrat 27.2, Andrew Teale & PhilDav76 32.0
Kingston-upon-Thames, Berrylands
Andrew Teale 9.1 faults, Mark Senior 9.6, Arthur Figgis 10.5, greatkingrat 11.1, PhilDav76 14.8, Hempie 16.5, East Anglian Lefty 18.4, Robert Waller 24.4, Pete Whitehead 17.4+10
North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge West
Andrew Teale 7.4 faults, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 12.9, PhilDav76 & Pete Whitehead 13.7, East Anglian Lefty 15.7, Arthur Figgis 23.7, Mark Senior 24.9, Hempie 43.7
Looks like Robert Waller, Andrew Teale, Mark Senior and PhilDav for February.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 1, 2013 10:32:46 GMT
This obviously all got rather overshadowed by another by-election, but congratulations to Robert Waller for the month and Andrew Teale for the week
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 1, 2013 10:58:15 GMT
Congratulations to Robert! (I can't remember - is that your first win, if so very well deserved and a long time coming!)
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 1, 2013 11:00:08 GMT
Isn't there still the Wirral scores to come?
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 1, 2013 11:06:07 GMT
Yes, Middle Englander hasn't put up the Wirral or final scores.
I guess that he provisionally indicated the top three placings because our predictions for Pensby are very similar (and we knew Labour had won by a large margin).
If confirmed, thanks very much for the kind words, and yes Tony, I do believe this is my first 'win' for a month (though I think Andrew won more of the weekly contests).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 1, 2013 11:07:53 GMT
Have just been chatting with Chris Took , the LD agent in Ashford . He is anticipating a Labour vote of under 25% and expects the 2 Indie candidates to poll well Just as well you didn't inform us of all this before predictions were sent in, then  |
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Post by marksenior on Mar 1, 2013 11:14:39 GMT
I am waiting for the official recount but well done Robert , a close contest .
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 1, 2013 23:18:30 GMT
Sorry for the extended delays and patchy service. I do help someone out occasionally on a Thursday and Friday and it just happened to be this week. The previous posting saying it "looks like Robert Waller, Andrew Teale, Mark Senior and PhilDav for February" was based on some flash figures for the Wirral which were subsequently verified.
Ashford, Beaver
Robert Waller 13.5 faults, Hempie 14.3, Mark Senior 16.0, East Anglian Lefty 16.6, Arthur Figgis 23.4, Pete Whitehead 24.3+0.1, greatkingrat 27.2, Andrew Teale & PhilDav 32.0
Kingston-upon-Thames, Berrylands
Andrew Teale 9.1 faults, Mark Senior 9.6, Arthur Figgis 10.5, greatkingrat 11.1, PhilDav 14.8, Hempie 16.5, East Anglian Lefty 18.4, Robert Waller 24.4, Pete Whitehead 17.4+10
North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge West
Andrew Teale 7.4 faults, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 12.9, PhilDav & Pete Whitehead 13.7, East Anglian Lefty 15.7, Arthur Figgis 23.7, Mark Senior 24.9, Hempie 45.7
Wirral, Pensby & Thingwall
Andrew Teale 8.5 faults, Robert Waller 9.0, Arthur Figgis 15.7, Hempie 16.5, PhilDav 19.2, Mark Senior 20.2, greatkingrat 20.2+8, East Anglian Lefty 20.6+10, Pete Whitehead 21.0+10
For the week:
Andrew Teale 57.0 faults, Robert Waller 59.8, Mark Senior 70.7, Arthur Figgis 73.4, greakingrat 79.4, PhilDav 79.7, East Anglian Lefty 81.2, Hemie 93.0, Pete Whitehead 96.5
and for the month of February:
363.7 Robert Waller
376.4 Andrew Teale
382.8 Mark Senior
400.0 PhilDav
420.6 Hempie
421.3 Arthur Figgis
428.2 Pete Whitehead
455.5 greatkingrat
466.4 East Anglian Lefty
954.9 Tonyotim
1025.6 Dibs
Objections please by 6.00 pm Sunday.
New thread for March, although we could do with a few more competitors.
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