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Post by middleenglander on Feb 4, 2013 1:20:12 GMT
It looks like 15 contests during February
- 3 on the 7th
- 4 on the 14th
- 1 on the 19th, a Tuesday
- 3 on the 21st and
- 4 on the 28th
6 of the contests are in District Councils last contested in 2011 although 1 has since had a by-election
2 are for a Unitary last contested in 2011
3 are in London Borough last contested in 2010
2 are in Metropolitan Boroughs with elections 3 out of 4 years and
2 are for Scottish Councils where the election was last May
The Conservatives are defending 3 seats, 2 following the death of the sitting councillor and 1 a resignation.
Labour are defending 7 seats, 4 following a death and 3 resignations
Lib Dems are defending 2 seats, both following a death
Independents 2 seat and SNP 1 seat, all following a death.
It is unusual for Labour to be defending more seats than the Conservatives as they still have only ~¾ the number of seats
Amended to include the Wirral, Pensby & Thingwall nominations
Conservatives are contesting all15 seats, Labour as well as UKIP 14 (both not South Staffordshire, Perton East) whilst the Lib Dems 12 (not Perton East, Forest of Dean, Berry Hill and Telford & Wrekin, Dawley Magna)
Greens have 6 candidates, Independents 5, SNP and Residents Groups 2 each whilst BNP, English Democrats and No Description 1 each - a total of 73 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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Post by casualobserver on Feb 6, 2013 22:36:28 GMT
My guesses for the 7th:
Berry Hill: Lab 48; Con 27; UKIP 25
Village: TIA 42; Lab 29; UKIP 13; Con 13; LD 3
Wormholt & White City: Lab 60; Con 16; UKIP 8; LD 7; Boat 5; BNP 4
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 6, 2013 23:33:35 GMT
Berry Hill: Lab 54; Con 34; UKIP 12
Village: TIA 51; Lab 33; UKIP 6; Con 7; LD 3
Wormholt & White City: Lab 63; Con 18; UKIP 5; LD 7; Boat 3; BNP 4
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Post by marksenior on Feb 6, 2013 23:39:35 GMT
My attempts
Forest Of Dean Lab 50 Con 38 UKIP 12
Hamm/Fulham Lab 68 Con 16 UKIP 7 LD 6 BNP 3
Stockton TIA 45 Lab 38 Con 9 UKIP 5 LD 3
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 6, 2013 23:47:24 GMT
Forest of Dean DC, Berry Hill
Lab 56
Con 37
UKIP 7
Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Wormholt & White City
Lab 63
Con 16
LD 7
Ind 6
BNP 5
UKIP 3
Stockton-on-Tees UA, Village
TIA 41
Lab 35
UKIP 14
Con 7
LD 3
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Post by hempie on Feb 7, 2013 7:58:24 GMT
Forest of Dean, Berry Hill: Lab 56, Con 34, UKIP 10
Hammersmith & Fulham, Wormholt & White City: Lab 63, Con 17, LD 11,UKIP 4, Ind 4, BNP 1
Stockton on Tees, Village: TIA 50, Lab 32, Con 10,UKIP 5,LD 3
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 7, 2013 8:34:18 GMT
FOREST OF DEAN - Lab 49, Con 42, UKIP 9
HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM - Lab 61, Con 18, LD 10, UKIP 5, BNP 3, Ind 3
STOCKTON - TIA 46, Lab 33, Con 12, UKIP 7, LD 2
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 7, 2013 8:49:32 GMT
Forest of Dean: L 51, C 35, UKIP 14.
Hammersmith & Fulham: L 59, C 23, LD 12, UKIP 3, BNP 2, Ind 1.
Stockton-on-Tees: TIA 49, L 36, C 9, UKIP 4, LD 2.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 7, 2013 9:18:29 GMT
Hammersmith & Fulham LB - Wormholt & White City Lab 60.3% Con 20.2% LD 7.9% Ind 6.1% UKIP 3.2% BNP 2.3% Stockton UA - Village TIA 43.7% Lab 34.1% Con 10.1% UKIP 6.8% LD 5.3% Forest of Dean DC - Berry Hill Lab 47.9% Con 33.7% UKIP 18.4% |
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Post by Philip Davies on Feb 7, 2013 10:03:44 GMT
FOREST OF DEAN - Berry Hill Nigel BLUETT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 37.6 Timothy GWILLIAM (Labour Party Candidate) 57.2 John MCOWAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5.2 HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM - Wormholt and White City Jeffrey BOATENG 3.0 Andrew DONALD (British National Party) 3.0 Andrew ELSTON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 4.0 Jamie MCKITTRICK (Conservative Party) 17.4 Max SCHMID (The Labour Party Candidate) 64.2 Chris WHITTAKER (Liberal Democrats) 8.4 STOCKTON-ON-TEES - Village John CHAPMAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 9.0 Leslie HODGE (Labour Party Candidate) 31.6 Mick MOORE (Thornaby Independent Association) 51.2 Ted STRIKE (UKIP) 5.4 Isabel WILLIS (Liberal Democrat) 2.8 |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 7, 2013 10:43:49 GMT
Oops - I had meant to enter this week, but somehowv thought I still had another day to go. I blame the lack of sleep  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 7, 2013 10:58:07 GMT
Its funny I got confused in the same way last night I saw everyone posting their predictions and I was thinking it was tuesday and was planning to do them the next day. Had to suddenly put them together last night
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 7, 2013 18:56:11 GMT
BERRY HILL: Lab 55 C 36 UKIP 9 WORMHOLT AND WHITE CITY: Lab 64 C 17 LD 9 UKIP 4 Ind 4 BNP 2 THORNABY, VILLAGE: Thornaby Ind Assoc 50 Lab 34 C 8 UKIP 6 LD 2 |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 7, 2013 19:42:55 GMT
10 entries this week with Casual Observer and East Anglian Lefty making a welcome reappearance whilst Tonyotim forgot and David Boothroyd is still AWOL. There are no additional faults although the new format does make it difficult to determine the precise time of posting for 24 hours.
100% unanimity that there should be no change in all 3 contests.
- Forest of Dean, Labour majority over Conservatives of between 7% (greatkingrat) and 22% (hempie) with an average 17%
- Hammersmith & Fulham, Labour majority over Conservatives of between 36% (Arthur Figgis) and 52% (Mark Senior) with an average 45%
- Stockton-On-Tees, Thornaby Independent majority over Labour of between 6% (East Anglian Lefty) and 19.6% (PhilDav76) with an average 13%
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 7, 2013 20:55:48 GMT
If you hold your mouse over the "X hours ago" words, it should show the exact time posted, eg Arthur Figgis posted at 08:49:32
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 7, 2013 23:47:59 GMT
Forest of Dean, Berryhill
Casual Observer 23.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 23.7, Hempie & Robert Waller 24.3, Arthur Figgis 26.3, Andrew Teale 28.3, East Anglian Lefty 30.3, PhilDav76 36.5, Mark Senior 32.3, greatkingrat 40.3
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Post by Philip Davies on Feb 7, 2013 23:53:45 GMT
Forest of Dean, BerryhillCasual Observer 23.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 23.7, Hempie & Robert Waller 24.3, Arthur Figgis 26.3, Andrew Teale 28.3, East Anglian Lefty 30.3, PhilDav76 36.5, Mark Senior 32.3, greatkingrat 40.3 I was not far off with the my Labour guess, but totally underestimated how many votes a UKIP candidate from several miles away would take away from a Tory who lived in the ward. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 7, 2013 23:56:41 GMT
Has GKR ever finished last in a ward prediction before?!
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 7, 2013 23:59:29 GMT
Forest of Dean, BerryhillCasual Observer 23.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 23.7, Hempie & Robert Waller 24.3, Arthur Figgis 26.3, Andrew Teale 28.3, East Anglian Lefty 30.3, PhilDav76 36.5, Mark Senior 32.3, greatkingrat 40.3 I was not far off with the my Labour guess, but totally underestimated how many votes a UKIP candidate from several miles away would take away from a Tory who lived in the ward. Which is particularly notable given how tiny the ward's electorate is. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 8, 2013 0:08:08 GMT
Updated with BNP vote:
Wormholt & White City:
Lab 66.9%
Con 11.8%
LD 9.9%
UKIP 5.8%
Ind 3.5%
BNP 2.1%
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