Prediction Competition for February 2013

[erlend]

If I were writing a leaflet and this had occurred in Hants I might have mentioned it.

From Essex would be unlikely for me. I might mention as a point in an email to membets ad showing that good results are possible so pleade come and help. Indeed I quite expect that to be in mt In bpx soon :-)

[Pete Whitehead]

I don't know whats wrong with them in Essex lately

[erlend]

There is very little wrong with Essex
.
.
.
that won't be solved by global warming.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 20, 2013 13:49:50 GMT erlend said:

There is very little wrong with Essex
.
.
.
that won't be solved by global warming.

I can't agree with that.

Not that I'm necessarily opposed to the Noah solution, it's just that some of the places that most deserve it are on the higher ground.

[erlend]

It would get Basildon, Canvey Island and chunks of London Essex. I Might throw in Harwich. NW Essex is slightly more picturesque. I have a feeling that Sir Bob Russell might disagree with me on this as I assume Colchester might be quite estuarine with this.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Most of Colchester is a fair way above sea level. Not on a hill, but a good twenty metres above sea level, I'd guess. Most of the new developments would be underwater, but they're built on what is quite obviously the floodplain, and I'm bemused they ever got planning permission. The bits of Colchester most disliked by locals would be fine, but you'd lose the bottom half of the Dutch Quarter.

[Robert Waller]

Many thanks to Great King Rat for the template!

21ST FEBRUARY

HARROW - West Harrow (Labour resigned)


Herbert CROSSMAN (Independent) 3%
Rowan LANGLEY (Green Party) 3
Julia MERISON (Conservative Party Candidate) 26
Pash NANDHRA (Liberal Democrats) 10
Christine ROBSON (The Labour Party Candidate) 53
Jeremy ZEID (UK Independence Party (UKIP))5

NORTH NORFOLK - Cromer Town (Conservative died)

Jen EMERY (The Labour Party Candidate) 22
John MORGAN (Independent) - nomination invalid 0
Tony NASH (Conservative Party) 31
David RAMSBOTHAM (UK Independence Party) 15
Andreas YIASIMI (Liberal Democrats)32

WAKEFIELD - Castleford Central and Glasshoughton (Labour resigned)


Richard FORSTER (Labour Party Candidate) 74
Nathan GARBUTT (UK Independence Party (UKIP)17
Conservative 5
Mark GOODAIR (Liberal Democrats) 4
sorry ...

[dibs]

West Harrow, Harrow
Lab 50 Con 25 LibDem 15 UKIP 5 Green 3 Indep 2

Cromer Town, North Norfolk District Council
LibDem 38 Con 32 Lab 20 UKIP 10 Indep 0

Castleford Central and Glasshoughton, Wakefield
Lab 67 Con 15 UKIP 10 LibDem 8

[East Anglian Lefty]

Judging by the campaign materials and personal blogs of some of these candidates, being a nutter is no hindrance to getting selected for a by-election. Which goes some way to explaining Maria Hutchings, but I digress.

My guesses:

North Norfolk DC, Cromer Town
Con 34
Lab 27
LD 20
UKIP 19

Harrow LBC, West Harrow
Lab 36
Con 33
LD 13
UKIP 9
Green 6
Ind 3

Wakefield MBC, Castleford Central & Glasshoughton
Lab 67
UKIP 21
Con 8
LD 4

[greatkingrat]

HARROW - Lab 42, Con 29, LD 15, UKIP 7, Grn 4, Ind 3
NORTH NORFOLK - Lab 32, Con 31, LD 28, UKIP 9
WAKEFIELD - Lab 74, UKIP 13, Con 8, LD 5

[Arthur Figgis]

Harrow- L 42, C 37, LD 10, UKIP 6, G 3, Ind 2.
North Norfolk- L 33, C 32, LD 27, UKIP 8.
Wakefield- L 71, UKIP 19, LD 5, C 5.

[marksenior]

My forecasts

Harrow Lab 40 Con 32 LD 11 UKIP 10 Green 4 Ind 3
N Norfolk Con 34 LD 29 Lab 27 UKIP 10
Wakefield Lab 70 UKIP 19 Con 6 LD 5

[hempie]

Harrow, West Harrow: Lab 42, Con 31, LD 10, UKIP 8, Ind 6, Green 3
North Norfolk, Cromer Town: Con 36, LD 29, Lab 25, UKIP 10
Wakefield, Castleford Central & Glasshoughton: Lab 66, UKIP 20, Con 9, LD 5

[Tony Otim]

Feb 20, 2013 15:23:26 GMT Tony Otim said:

Harrow:
Lab 43.2
Con 29.8
LD 11.4
UKIP 7.6
Ind 5.4
Grn 2.6


North Norfolk:
Lab 33.2
Con 29.5
LD 23.1
UKIP 14.2


Wakefield:
Lab 77.2
UKIP 14.5
Con 5.1
LD 3.2 (sorry Mark)

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 21, 2013 0:07:02 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Harrow LB - West Harrow

Lab  39.8%
Con 36.1%
LD   12.2%
UKIP  4.9%
Grn   3.9%
Ind    3.1%


Wakefield MB - Castleford Central & Glasshoughton

Lab   73.4%
UKIP 16.7%
Con    6.7%
LD      3.2%



North Norfolk DC - Cromer Town

Con  31.9%
Lab  26.6%
LD    24.2%
UKIP 17.3%

[Pete Whitehead]

Nice split we've gone for in Cromer. Be funny if UKIP wins after all

[Philip Davies]

Feb 21, 2013 0:50:53 GMT Philip Davies said:

HARROW - West Harrow

Herbert CROSSMAN (Independent) 3.9
Rowan LANGLEY (Green Party) 7.9
Julia MERISON (Conservative Party Candidate) 30.0
Pash NANDHRA (Liberal Democrats) 7.1
Christine ROBSON (The Labour Party Candidate) 45.4
Jeremy ZEID (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5.7


NORTH NORFOLK - Cromer Town

Jen EMERY (The Labour Party Candidate) 22.8
Tony NASH (Conservative Party) 37.9
David RAMSBOTHAM (UK Independence Party) 10.0
Andreas YIASIMI (Liberal Democrats) 29.3


WAKEFIELD - Castleford Central and Glasshoughton

Richard FORSTER (Labour Party Candidate) 74.8
Nathan GARBUTT (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 14.5
Annemarie GLOVER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 6.3
Mark GOODAIR (Liberal Democrats) 4.4

[Tony Otim]

Feb 21, 2013 11:46:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nice split we've gone for in Cromer. Be funny if UKIP wins after all

I thought I'd be the only one going for a Labour gain there, but as I'm going to come last this month anyway, I reckoned there was nothing to lose with a bit of a gamble.

[andrewteale]

Feb 20, 2013 23:58:34 GMT andrewteale said:

CASTLEFORD CENTRAL AND GLASSHOUGHTON: Lab 73 UKIP 17 C 7 LD 3
CROMER TOWN: LD 32 C 31 Lab 27 UKIP 10
WEST HARROW: Lab 47 C 31 LD 9 UKIP 7 Grn 4 Ind 3

[Robert Waller]

Did Middle Englander say he was away tonight?
Will need checking, but I think on the Castleford predictions:
Tonyotim was closest, followed by myself, Pete, Andrew Teale, Phildav (all under 10 faults)
Mark Senior still in the lead for the month, followed by Phildav ... ?