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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 16:31:20 GMT
If you run that through Electoral Calculus: Lab 538 LDm 51 Con 24 SNP 14 PCy 4 Grn 1 And no, I haven't got LDm and Con the wrong way around. Reform still on nil? On that polling they ought to be winning a constituency or two. You can put Reform on 99% and electoral calculus would still say 0 MPs |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 3, 2024 23:55:13 GMT
If you run that through Electoral Calculus: Lab 538 LDm 51 Con 24 SNP 14 PCy 4 Grn 1 And no, I haven't got LDm and Con the wrong way around. Holy cow. Can't really believe that will happen, but will just stop to spare a thought for Black Rod, or whoever it is who has to try and fit everyone onto the government benches. Why would seating arrangements in the Commons chamber have anything to do with Black Rod? |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 4, 2024 11:19:55 GMT
If you run that through Electoral Calculus: Lab 538 LDm 51 Con 24 SNP 14 PCy 4 Grn 1 And no, I haven't got LDm and Con the wrong way around. Holy cow. Can't really believe that will happen, but will just stop to spare a thought for Black Rod, or whoever it is who has to try and fit everyone onto the government benches. I really wish Rishi had waited until the Autumn, by that time EC would probably have had the Tories on zero. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2024 15:46:40 GMT
Reform surging ahead of the Tories among older voters.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 6, 2024 15:55:53 GMT
Labour 42% (-4)
Conservative 19% (-1)
Reform UK 17% (+3)
Lib Dem 12% (+2)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)
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Post by observer on Jun 6, 2024 17:30:47 GMT
Movements to and from each party can be confusing because of intra-party churn.
But could it be that Reform's rise is damaging Labour as much as, if not more than, the Conservatives?
Labour and Lib Dem activists have been gleefully claiming that a Reform increase will do most damage to the Conservatives.
But they initially said the same with UKIP.
What do people think?
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Post by johnloony on Jun 6, 2024 17:39:46 GMT
Movements to and from each party can be confusing because of intra-party churn. But could it be that Reform's rise is damaging Labour as much as, if not more than, the Conservatives? Labour and Lib Dem activists have been gleefully claiming that a Reform increase will do most damage to the Conservatives. But they initially said the same with UKIP. What do people think? I think that four weeks is a long time in politics, and that Reform’s vote (as currently showing in the opinion polls) will survive in terms of actual election results with as much fortitude as a blancmange in a hurricane. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 6, 2024 17:42:11 GMT
Leaving aside what the changes from the last election look like, all of the post-Farage announcement and subsequent intense media coverage have shown a sharp uptick in Reform support, but not all show Labour down or down by a statistically significant amount. Polls always bounce around a bit and it is a very bad idea to assume that +/- figures of a vaguely similar size must indicate significant movement between the parties in question, especially when one remembers the concept of 'margin of error'.
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Post by batman on Jun 6, 2024 19:32:52 GMT
Indeed. In this particular case Labour was probably too high at 46% previously & a 4% drop is a reversion to a likelier state of affairs.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 6, 2024 19:44:06 GMT
Interesting gender data. It shows that Reform are the second party among men and that the Greens are also doing better among men than women.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2024 9:47:43 GMT
Interesting gender data. It shows that Reform are the second party among men and that the Greens are also doing better among men than women. if Reform does 15% better than the Brexit Party did in 2019, these would be their best results if the swing applied everywhere on current boundaries. It's slightly meaningless because they didn't stand in Conservative seats though: Barnsley East - 45% Barnsley Central - 45% Hartlepool - 42% Doncaster North - 36% Easington - 35% Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle - 34% Kingston upon Hull East - 33% Wentworth & Dearne - 33% Doncaster Central - 33% Rotherham - 33% Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford - 32% Houghton & Sunderland South - 31% Washington & Sunderland West - 30% Don Valley - 29% Rother Valley - 29% Hemsworth - 29% Bassetlaw - 26% Bolsover - 25% |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2024 9:58:33 GMT
Its *completely* meaningless since nobody - Reform themselves included - expects their best scores to be in the likes of Barnsley or Hartlepool at this election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2024 11:36:11 GMT
Its *completely* meaningless since nobody - Reform themselves included - expects their best scores to be in the likes of Barnsley or Hartlepool at this election. Obviously, their best scores will be in Essex and Lincolnshire. Hartlepool will likely be one of their better results considering how well UKIP did there in 2015 and the Brexit Party did in the seat in 2019. If the Brexit Party got 30% in Barnsley in 2019, how well will Reform do if polling six or seven times the Brexit Party's 2019 support level across the country? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 7, 2024 12:10:49 GMT
It might be useful if we stuck to discussing the actual election presently before us and not fantasy ones.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2024 12:26:32 GMT
The Reform surge is no fantasy
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2024 12:35:50 GMT
Just as Labour are very likely to have some "against the trend" seats where their support drops compared to 2019, so it could well be with Brexit/Reform.
Their electoral coalition this time seems to be rather more like UKIP's in the 2012-16 period.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 7, 2024 14:57:51 GMT
Which is why it would be good to have more in depth polling in places like Boston and Skegness. Tice might do quite well there. Likely not enough to win, but I can see him coming close.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 10, 2024 17:56:40 GMT
Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):
Labour 45% (+3)
Conservative 19% (–)
Reform UK 17% (–)
Lib Dem 10% (-2)
Green 5% (-1)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 5/6-6/6
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 12, 2024 18:25:39 GMT
This is a poll of people who 'primarily' get their news from the Daily Mail. If accurate, they are truly stuffed.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 12, 2024 18:31:33 GMT
This is a poll of people who 'primarily' get their news from the Daily Mail. If accurate, they are truly stuffed. It does make you wonder how those 37% read page after page of that as the main news source and think a) I’ll vote Labour after reading all that and at the same time b) I must buy/ read that paper again, unless they skip lots of pages every day. |
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