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Post by hullenedge on Jun 3, 2024 9:40:48 GMT
Another mega poll due this afternoon...release brought forward to 3pm.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 3, 2024 14:02:30 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 3, 2024 14:04:28 GMT
Brutal. Again.
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Post by greenrichard on Jun 3, 2024 14:09:22 GMT
Is there a betting market in Reform UK / Tory crossing over?
Even typing that the recent upstarts may outpoll the nearly 200year old most dominant UK party seems unbelievable; but it could happen.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 3, 2024 14:11:52 GMT
Is there a betting market in Reform UK / Tory crossing over? Even typing that the recent upstarts may outpoll the nearly 200year old most dominant UK party seems unbelievable; but it could happen. Given how close the gap is getting to the MoE, and the fact that having so many polls gives more scope for outliers, I feel there will be at least one with RefUK > Con at some point in the next month. |
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Post by redwombat on Jun 3, 2024 14:18:27 GMT
Is there a betting market in Reform UK / Tory crossing over? Even typing that the recent upstarts may outpoll the nearly 200year old most dominant UK party seems unbelievable; but it could happen. Yes there is a similar market on Betfair Exchange, At present the odds on who gets the highest vote share in the actual election are Tories 1.08 Reform 4.4 If you prefer old fractional odds that is Tories 12.5 to 1 on Reform 17 / 5 |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 3, 2024 14:24:22 GMT
If you run that through Electoral Calculus:
Lab 538
LDm 51
Con 24
SNP 14
PCy 4
Grn 1
And no, I haven't got LDm and Con the wrong way around.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 3, 2024 14:27:31 GMT
If you run that through Electoral Calculus: Lab 538 LDm 51 Con 24 SNP 14 PCy 4 Grn 1 And no, I haven't got LDm and Con the wrong way around. Holy cow. Can't really believe that will happen, but will just stop to spare a thought for Black Rod, or whoever it is who has to try and fit everyone onto the government benches. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 3, 2024 14:33:58 GMT
If you run that through Electoral Calculus: Lab 538 LDm 51 Con 24 SNP 14 PCy 4 Grn 1 And no, I haven't got LDm and Con the wrong way around. Holy cow. Can't really believe that will happen, but will just stop to spare a thought for Black Rod, or whoever it is who has to try and fit everyone onto the government benches. Yes I agree, it's unlikely. But it's nice to look at! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 14:37:46 GMT
By all definitions of the word "fantastic", that poll is fantastic.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 3, 2024 14:46:23 GMT
By all definitions of the word "fantastic", that poll is fantastic. Surely you mean good or excellent from your perspective. Fantastic means (and ONLY means) beyond the realms of any believability. |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261 
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Post by polupolu on Jun 3, 2024 14:54:14 GMT
By all definitions of the word "fantastic", that poll is fantastic. Surely you mean good or excellent from your perspective. Fantastic means (and ONLY means) beyond the realms of any believability. I would understand him to mean it is both: i.e. unbelievable and excellent (in the unlikely event that it proved true). |
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Post by islington on Jun 3, 2024 15:34:48 GMT
By all definitions of the word "fantastic", that poll is fantastic. Surely you mean good or excellent from your perspective. Fantastic means (and ONLY means) beyond the realms of any believability. I'd say rather that it means 'extravagantly fanciful' rather than merely 'beyond the realms of believability'. There's obviously a lot of overlap here, but there is a difference. If I say that I left the pub and went home at 9pm, such a mundane statement can hardly be described as 'fantastic'; but if a host of reliable witnesses will testify on a stack of bibles that I stuck around until thrown out at 11.30, then my statement is not believable.
So I respectfully suggest that extravagance, and remoteness from the commonplace and the everyday, is the defining element of the fantastic.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 3, 2024 15:37:28 GMT
Surely you mean good or excellent from your perspective. Fantastic means (and ONLY means) beyond the realms of any believability. I'd say rather that it means 'extravagantly fanciful' rather than merely 'beyond the realms of believability'. There's obviously a lot of overlap here, but there is a difference. If I say that I left the pub and went home at 9pm, such a mundane statement can hardly be described as 'fantastic'; but if a host of reliable witnesses will testify on a stack of bibles that I stuck around until thrown out at 11.30, then my statement is not believable.
So I respectfully suggest that extravagance, and remoteness from the commonplace and the everyday, is the defining element of the fantastic.
Oh dear! Way, way below your usual standard of excellence in argument. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 15:40:46 GMT
All language bends and all grammar leaks: I stick with my evaluation that the poll is fantastic 😊
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binky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by binky on Jun 3, 2024 15:43:34 GMT
Do we have regional #s?
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Post by islington on Jun 3, 2024 16:00:11 GMT
I'd say rather that it means 'extravagantly fanciful' rather than merely 'beyond the realms of believability'. There's obviously a lot of overlap here, but there is a difference. If I say that I left the pub and went home at 9pm, such a mundane statement can hardly be described as 'fantastic'; but if a host of reliable witnesses will testify on a stack of bibles that I stuck around until thrown out at 11.30, then my statement is not believable.
So I respectfully suggest that extravagance, and remoteness from the commonplace and the everyday, is the defining element of the fantastic.
Oh dear! Way, way below your usual standard of excellence in argument. All right, I will have another go. (Perhaps we should have a 'Use of English' thread where those of us with an interest can indulge in this sort of thing.)
Consider a novel, just an ordinary run-of-the-mill novel. It's a work of fiction. It isn't true, nor does it purport to be true: it is, in the most literal sense, not believable. But that's not enough to make it 'fantastic'; and if it deals with the stuff of normal life, presented in a realistic manner, it would be wrong to describe it in that way.
But the Lord of the Rings, or Gormenghast, by contrast, although both clearly fiction and with no pretense of being true (despite what some of LoTR's more earnest enthusiasts seem to think), can reasonably be described as 'fantastic' because they are set in an imaginary world following its own rules and entirely remote from the reality we inhabit.
So I'm sticking to my guns here: what makes something 'fantastic' is not its unbelievability but its remoteness from reality. And this is a significant distinction: what is remote from reality is likely also to be unbelievable but the converse does not apply - a statement that is, in itself, perfectly mundane and devoid of any fantastic element may nevertheless be unbelievable, for instance if there is clear evidence against it.
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Post by swindonlad on Jun 3, 2024 16:11:12 GMT
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Post by froome on Jun 3, 2024 16:12:52 GMT
If you run that through Electoral Calculus: Lab 538 LDm 51 Con 24 SNP 14 PCy 4 Grn 1 And no, I haven't got LDm and Con the wrong way around. Reform still on nil? On that polling they ought to be winning a constituency or two. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 3, 2024 16:19:30 GMT
If you run that through Electoral Calculus: Lab 538 LDm 51 Con 24 SNP 14 PCy 4 Grn 1 And no, I haven't got LDm and Con the wrong way around. Reform still on nil? On that polling they ought to be winning a constituency or two. Wouldn't it be funny if they did win a seat or two, but Clacton wasn't one of them? Also, I really think the Greens are going to get 2 seats now. |
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