|
Post by manchesterman on May 8, 2023 22:01:12 GMT
Isnt an obvious explanation for this surge in support for the Lib Dems simply that they have had a much higher media profile over the last week or so, with the build up to the Locals, then coupled with a good performance in them? Just means that "floating voters" are now more likely to plump for them in an opinion poll ..i expect this to continue for a week or two until the status quo (media-wise) is resumed
|
|
aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,298
Member is Online
|
Post by aargauer on May 9, 2023 5:30:07 GMT
They don't, which is why rejoin / stay out polls are meaningless. Not meaningless. Of course the obstacles to rejoining are significant, but when the polls start to consistently say that over 60% think we should not have left (as they do) it is absolutely not "meaningless" for a government which insists that nothing can be done. If you think that any government can sustain a position where the public is convinced that the status quo is crap, while the government says "Yeah, we did that. No, there's nothing you can do about it, we made sure of that" then you're in denial. Something will have to give, starting with the government's approval ratings. Probably then moving on to membership of the Single Market. (And no, that won't usher in the Millennium, but it is the single easiest thing you could do to improve both our economy and the various Brexit niggles, without either finding trillions from nowhere or some fundamental restructuring of our society/economy. Which means that sooner or later a government will cash that cheque, because they'll need to, once the political cost from Leave voters is considered acceptable.) Membership of the single market I am more scared of, yes. Rejoining proper is a non starter with the Euro, and I think the remain / rejoin side have learnt their lesson about aiming for a knockout victory and then taking a knockout loss.
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on May 9, 2023 10:29:05 GMT
another prediction of 60+ LD seats
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on May 9, 2023 11:00:56 GMT
another prediction of 60+ LD seats These are not predictions but only extrapolations from statistical material that is on a different cycle and for a different purpose to any GE; and on much lower TO figures and with a much higher incidence of successful independent candidatures. Thus of course they will tend to mirror one another, as the base material is exactly the same, and to be very weak and inaccurate predictors. One wonders at the desire to expend energy on doing it at all. There is little to no chance of LDs gaining 60 seats. I think 30 seats would be toppy.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on May 9, 2023 11:02:29 GMT
another prediction of 60+ LD seats These are not predictions but only extrapolations from statistical material that is on a different cycle and for a different purpose to any GE; and on much lower TO figures and with a much higher incidence of successful independent candidatures. Thus of course they will tend to mirror oneanother and to be very weak and inaccurate predictors. One wonders at the desire to expend energy on doing in at all. There is little to no chance of LDs gaining 60 seats. I think 30 seats would be toppy. "I agree with Carlton"
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on May 9, 2023 11:08:10 GMT
Have they mixed the columns up (tory / Lib Dem wrong way around)? Seems the most logical answer. I can Just about buy Sunak doing ok with Lib dems, but not Braverman. One of my English teachers* was astonished by my A-Level grade and told me he had me down for a D (I think I got an A or a B). He pulled out his mark book to prove his point. At which point we both realised he had entered my marks against the name of a boy named Lovell, and his against mine. He had predicted a D for me, and a B for Lovell, who got a D. Perhaps he worked in polling after retiring from teaching. * A very elderly chap (though, presumably, he just looked ancient and decrepit) in the mould of Mr Chips. He told us he had served as a fighter pilot in the Boer War. And innocent first formers believed him.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on May 9, 2023 11:12:13 GMT
another prediction of 60+ LD seats Another site with Election in its name that doesn't understand elections.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2023 11:22:34 GMT
I don't know they've worked out these, whether its some extrapolatoin from the projected national vote. If its supposed to be just who won the most votes in each constituency, it is wrong in many cases. Hemel was close but the Conservatives won the most votes, Hertford & Stortford had a Green plurality
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on May 9, 2023 11:35:26 GMT
I don't know they've worked out these, whether its some extrapolatoin from the projected national vote. If its supposed to be just who won the most votes in each constituency, it is wrong in many cases. Hemel was close but the Conservatives won the most votes, Hertford & Stortford had a Green plurality The Tories also won Leicester East by a lot (more than 13k if you count every single candidate),
|
|
|
Post by nobodyimportant on May 9, 2023 11:55:34 GMT
another prediction of 60+ LD seats Another site with Election in its name that doesn't understand elections. Their next tweet does say:
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,019
|
Post by jamie on May 9, 2023 12:02:23 GMT
They having Labour losing Weaver Vale and Preston apparently falling into the sea?
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on May 9, 2023 12:07:16 GMT
The Greens won Lowestoft?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
|
Post by The Bishop on May 9, 2023 12:29:52 GMT
I don't know they've worked out these, whether its some extrapolatoin from the projected national vote. If its supposed to be just who won the most votes in each constituency, it is wrong in many cases. Hemel was close but the Conservatives won the most votes, Hertford & Stortford had a Green plurality The Tories also won Leicester East by a lot (more than 13k if you count every single candidate), Though that isn't normally how it is done.
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on May 9, 2023 12:48:14 GMT
The Tories also won Leicester East by a lot (more than 13k if you count every single candidate), Though that isn't normally how it is done. I know
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 9, 2023 13:08:43 GMT
That's a dangerously slippery slope.....
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,711
|
Post by Tony Otim on May 9, 2023 15:27:18 GMT
The Greens won Lowestoft? On the new boundaries, the Greens would have won Waveney Valley by some 11% (using top vote method) and South Suffolk (more narrowly and complicated by a large Independent vote), but certainly not Lowestoft. It's possible they would have won the current Waveney seat (which includes Lowestoft) due to taking Beccles and Bungay and other rural seats round about. Suffolk Coastal on the new boundaries would have been a 3-way marginal with Conservatives on top, mainly because none of the opposition parties stood in anywhere near all wards. If they had, i suspect the Conservatives ewould have won more East Suffolk seats, but the Lib Dems might have come out on top in the constituency.
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on May 9, 2023 15:51:08 GMT
The Greens won Lowestoft? On the new boundaries, the Greens would have won Waveney Valley by some 11% (using top vote method) and South Suffolk (more narrowly and complicated by a large Independent vote), but certainly not Lowestoft. It's possible they would have won the current Waveney seat (which includes Lowestoft) due to taking Beccles and Bungay and other rural seats round about. Suffolk Coastal on the new boundaries would have been a 3-way marginal with Conservatives on top, mainly because none of the opposition parties stood in anywhere near all wards. If they had, i suspect the Conservatives ewould have won more East Suffolk seats, but the Lib Dems might have come out on top in the constituency. Seems about right, they have Waveney as a Green win in the uploaded map, which seemed odd.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
|
Post by The Bishop on May 9, 2023 17:24:37 GMT
PS, on the ElectionMaps thing, I am going to register my standard protest about seat projections based on constituencies that won't exist at the next GE. What the fuck is the point in making predictions about a FPTP election when you're not using the relevant electoral districts? Because at the moment the "old" boundaries are still in force? I do sympathise with your point to a degree, but given what has happened in the past I can understand people waiting until the changes get Royal Assent later this year. (both Labour and LibDems are still selecting according to current seats, no?)
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on May 9, 2023 17:32:38 GMT
They having Labour losing Weaver Vale and Preston apparently falling into the sea? Well it's one way of finally sorting out what to do with the bus station. Breakwater.
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on May 9, 2023 18:23:37 GMT
Preston apparently falling into the sea? A result that many would be very happy with.
|
|