andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,336
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Post by andrewp on May 1, 2023 20:30:09 GMT
The last 2 polls have each shown Labour 17% ahead, suggesting that the Opinium poll, while extremely unusual in having Labour further ahead than all other current polls, is not really an outlier. The last 2 or 3 polls have shown a widening of the gap. Just for the hell it, the average scores from all polls. for the first and second halves of March and April. 1st half of March, Lab 48.1 Con 27.5 LD 9.1 RefUK 6, Green 5.3 2nd half of March Lab 45.6 Con 26.5 LD 8.7 RefUK 5.2, Green 5 1st half of April Lab 44.9 Con 28.5 LD 9.6 RefUK 5.9 Green 4.7 2nd half of April. Lab 43.9 Con 28.9 LD 9.9 RefUK 5.9 Green 5.4
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on May 8, 2023 11:49:14 GMT
There is the usual ramping of today's poll....it is so bloody tiresome...
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on May 8, 2023 14:13:40 GMT
There is the usual ramping of today's poll....it is so bloody tiresome... You mean you've not got your bottle of champagne ready yet?
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Post by bigfatron on May 8, 2023 14:55:34 GMT
There is the usual ramping of today's poll....it is so bloody tiresome... You mean you've not got your bottle of champagne ready yet? Knowing us and the polls we will be back down to 7% like in the Omnisis poll!
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Post by carolus on May 8, 2023 16:01:59 GMT
You mean you've not got your bottle of champagne ready yet? Knowing us and the polls we will be back down to 7% like in the Omnisis poll! Not quite...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,274
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Post by The Bishop on May 8, 2023 16:12:26 GMT
Slightly misleading in that the LibDem increase is coming more from previous Tory voters, so not sure why Labour is down that much. Bank holiday polling again?
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Post by woollyliberal on May 8, 2023 16:18:44 GMT
Someone's getting carried away. One good LD poll and...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,274
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Post by The Bishop on May 8, 2023 16:22:28 GMT
Jolyon the lawyer has already done a "this is because of Labour's betrayal on Brexit" tweet.
Even though the LibDems said just the other day they weren't rejoining either....
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Post by Strontium Dog on May 8, 2023 16:28:55 GMT
I'll be surprised (pleasantly) if we poll more than 14% at the next election.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,274
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Post by The Bishop on May 8, 2023 16:31:32 GMT
Looking very likely now that a similar percentage vote for the LibDems as in 2019 will get them significantly more seats, yes.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on May 8, 2023 16:58:41 GMT
Jolyon the lawyer has already done a "this is because of Labour's betrayal on Brexit" tweet. Even though the LibDems said just the other day they weren't rejoining either.... I wish people would understand a) what rejoining entails and b) the EU would actually have to entertain an application. 🙄
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Post by edgbaston on May 8, 2023 17:02:59 GMT
Someone's getting carried away. One good LD poll and... While I agree this is hopeful in the extreme, I do think there could be a set of stunning but maybe not surprising Lib Dem victories in the south of England at the next election. The large victory by the Tories in 2019 was deceptive in that it masked a repositioning of the 2nd place party from Lab to Lib in scores of seats, setting them up perfectly for next year.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 8, 2023 17:27:20 GMT
Who exactly is behind “Election Maps UK”?
Do we know anything about them?
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,735
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Post by Crimson King on May 8, 2023 17:33:18 GMT
Someone's getting carried away. One good LD poll and... “I can feel the suuurge, David”
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Post by carolus on May 8, 2023 17:44:31 GMT
Who exactly is behind “Election Maps UK”? Do we know anything about them? The election maps were coming from inside the forum. ElectionMapsUK
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,755
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Post by iang on May 8, 2023 18:28:03 GMT
Does it tell us anywhere what the 61 seats are or do you have to try and work that out from the map?
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Post by stodge on May 8, 2023 21:02:57 GMT
As we all love sub samples, the London numbers from this Redfield & Wilton are as entertaining as the Coronation Concert (well, parts of it).
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Post by aargauer on May 8, 2023 21:26:56 GMT
Jolyon the lawyer has already done a "this is because of Labour's betrayal on Brexit" tweet. Even though the LibDems said just the other day they weren't rejoining either.... I wish people would understand a) what rejoining entails and b) the EU would actually have to entertain an application. 🙄 They don't, which is why rejoin / stay out polls are meaningless.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 8, 2023 21:41:55 GMT
I wish people would understand a) what rejoining entails and b) the EU would actually have to entertain an application. 🙄 They don't, which is why rejoin / stay out polls are meaningless. Not meaningless. Of course the obstacles to rejoining are significant, but when the polls start to consistently say that over 60% think we should not have left (as they do) it is absolutely not "meaningless" for a government which insists that nothing can be done. If you think that any government can sustain a position where the public is convinced that the status quo is crap, while the government says "Yeah, we did that. No, there's nothing you can do about it, we made sure of that" then you're in denial. Something will have to give, starting with the government's approval ratings. Probably then moving on to membership of the Single Market. (And no, that won't usher in the Millennium, but it is the single easiest thing you could do to improve both our economy and the various Brexit niggles, without either finding trillions from nowhere or some fundamental restructuring of our society/economy. Which means that sooner or later a government will cash that cheque, because they'll need to, once the political cost from Leave voters is considered acceptable.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 8, 2023 21:45:06 GMT
PS, on the ElectionMaps thing, I am going to register my standard protest about seat projections based on constituencies that won't exist at the next GE.
What the fuck is the point in making predictions about a FPTP election when you're not using the relevant electoral districts?
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