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Post by stodge on May 9, 2023 19:08:56 GMT
The Blue Wall numbers tonight show a huge 16.5% swing from Conservative to Labour in these seats since the last election. That's much larger than the national swing reported in the Monday poll.
I wonder if that coincides with Labour doing better in the south against the Conservatives (Bracknell Forest) than further north and in the midlands. The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 7%.
Plenty of scope for tactical voting in the polling as well which should concern the Conservatives further.
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Post by johnloony on May 9, 2023 19:54:59 GMT
another prediction of 60+ LD seats I think that’s a projection rather than a prediction
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 9, 2023 20:44:28 GMT
another prediction of 60+ LD seats I think that’s a projection rather than a prediction Let's face it, if this has any significance at all, it is as a bit of very welcome ramping for the Lib Dems without us even having to do any of it ourselves. Keir Starmer "not ruling out" a coalition with us won't hurt either.
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Post by andrewp on May 15, 2023 16:42:49 GMT
A correction poll Labour leads by 14%, up two points from last week.
Westminster VI (14 May):
Labour 42% (+1) Conservative 28% (-1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-5) Reform UK 8% (+3) Green 5% (+1) SNP 4% (+1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 7 May
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Post by andrewp on May 22, 2023 16:37:38 GMT
Labour leads by 12%, tying their narrowest lead since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.
Westminster VI (21 May):
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 30% (+2) Liberal Democrat 13% (+2) Reform UK 5% (-3) Green 4% (-1) SNP 4% (–) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 14 May
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Post by andrewp on May 24, 2023 17:19:16 GMT
Some wall action
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Post by batman on May 29, 2023 19:58:04 GMT
there was a Redfield & Wilton poll yesterday, Lab 43%, C 28%, LD 12%, Green 7%, Reform UK 5%, SNP 3%, Others 3% (although that adds up to 101%).
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 29, 2023 20:05:40 GMT
there was a Redfield & Wilton poll yesterday, Lab 43%, C 28%, LD 12%, Green 7%, Reform UK 5%, SNP 3%, Others 3% ( although that adds up to 101%). They were just being thorough
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 29, 2023 23:56:49 GMT
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Post by batman on May 30, 2023 7:24:55 GMT
not a huge amount to encourage the Conservatives there, but of course it's just one poll and usual caveats have to apply.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 30, 2023 10:17:43 GMT
Adding up to 99 or 101 is of course far from uncommon because of rounding. More unusual is getting 98 or 102, but it does happen on the odd occasion.
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Post by andrewp on May 30, 2023 20:40:47 GMT
Some red wall action. 13% swing there since 2019, about the same as their national polls
Labour leads by 17% in the Red Wall.
Red Wall VI (28 May):
Labour 48% (-4) Conservative 31% (+2) Liberal Democrat 7% (–) Reform UK 7% (–) Green 4% (–) Plaid Cymru 1% (–) Other 1% (+1)
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Post by andrewp on Jun 5, 2023 16:55:13 GMT
Labour leads by 14%.
Westminster VI (4 June):
Labour 44% (+1) Conservative 30% (+2) Liberal Democrat 12% (–) Green 5% (-2) Reform UK 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 1% (-2)
Changes +/- 28 May
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Post by andrewp on Jun 12, 2023 17:31:15 GMT
Labour leads by 14%.
Westminster VI (11 June):
Labour 44% (–) Conservative 30% (–) Liberal Democrat 13% (+1) Reform UK 6% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 4 June
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Post by stodge on Jun 12, 2023 19:34:58 GMT
Both this poll and Deltapoll have some curious London sub sample numbers.
I've been told I "don't understand" sub samples for pointing this out - perhaps and I note the weighted sample is barely half the unweighted which again makes me think there's something odd going on.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 12, 2023 19:52:52 GMT
Both this poll and Deltapoll have some curious London sub sample numbers. I've been told I "don't understand" sub samples for pointing this out - perhaps and I note the weighted sample is barely half the unweighted which again makes me think there's something odd going on. unrepresentative sampling. Pollsters find it harder to reach older voters to weighting will naturally strip out voters to provide a more representative pool of voters that reflects who will be voting in the next election
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Post by andrewp on Jun 19, 2023 16:49:48 GMT
Labour leads by 20%, the largest lead for Labour from R and W since 19 March.
Westminster VI (18 June):
Labour 46% (+2) Conservative 26% (-4) Liberal Democrat 12% (-1) Reform UK 7% (+1) Green 6% (+2) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 11 June
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Jun 21, 2023 9:02:31 GMT
Telegraph website claiming a R&W poll in "Blue Wall" seats on 17-18 June gives Labour a 38-31 lead over Conservatives. Their "Wall" refers to 42 southern seats won in 2019 with "traditionally strong" Tory support.
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Post by batman on Jun 21, 2023 9:08:04 GMT
so that's a 4% swing to Labour since about 3-4 weeks ago. Even more than in other polls. I suspect that recent Tory disarray might tend to affect their support more in traditional Tory than in more working class areas
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Post by andrewp on Jun 21, 2023 9:23:06 GMT
Telegraph website claiming a R&W poll in "Blue Wall" seats on 17-18 June gives Labour a 38-31 lead over Conservatives. Their "Wall" refers to 42 southern seats won in 2019 with "traditionally strong" Tory support. Blue Wall VI (17-18 June): Labour 38% (+4) Conservative 31% (+1) Liberal Democrat 22% (-4) Reform UK 5% (–) Green 4% (-1) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 4 June
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