clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 10, 2023 17:56:38 GMT
I certainly agree that polling over a Bank Holiday weekend is dubious but a small Tory recovery does make sense. The chaos of Truss is fading further into memory and while Sunak is hardly inspiring he is at least giving the vague impression of quite competence. Barring dramatic events I would expect to see the gap close slightly as we move closer to the election with the result being a Labour win in the range of 7-10 points. Does anybody seriously expect a bigger Labour win than the 13 point win in 1997? Some of the movement will simply be former Conservatives returning to the party (whether previously stating they were undecided, wouldn't vote or would vote for another party) and some will be down to the local elections making people think about their vote preference - we appear to be seeing a slight increase in the Lib Dem vote (perhaps only a point on average) too.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,304
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 11, 2023 10:22:37 GMT
Yes, there may be a modest local campaigning effect in recent polls.
Though even if the polls narrow a bit, Tory supporters being less inclined to turn out next month could still lead to some pretty bad results.
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 11, 2023 11:41:23 GMT
Yes. Around 2/5 Tories are currently undecided. A shift back would give the appearance of a significant uptick
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Post by andrewp on Apr 11, 2023 19:39:38 GMT
Redfield and Wilton have been to the blue wall. Apparently whatever seats are in this wall, voted Con 49% LD 27% Lab 21% in 2019
Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (9 April):
Labour 37% (-2) Conservative 35% (+4) Liberal Democrat 20% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 0% (–)
Change since 26th March
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 11, 2023 19:42:33 GMT
Redfield and Wilton have been to the blue wall. Apparently whatever seats are in this wall, voted Con 49% LD 27% Lab 21% in 2019 Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats. Blue Wall Voting Intention (9 April): Labour 37% (-2) Conservative 35% (+4) Liberal Democrat 20% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 0% (–) Change since 26th March Pretty worrying figures from a Lib Dem POV really.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 11, 2023 20:01:23 GMT
Redfield and Wilton have been to the blue wall. Apparently whatever seats are in this wall, voted Con 49% LD 27% Lab 21% in 2019 Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats. Blue Wall Voting Intention (9 April): Labour 37% (-2) Conservative 35% (+4) Liberal Democrat 20% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 0% (–) Change since 26th March Pretty worrying figures from a Lib Dem POV really. Tbf, I think it reflects the national polling. The Lib Dems are down a little bit on the previous election, Labour are well up and the Conservatives are well down. The Lib Dems traditionally improve their position in a general election campaign - especially in seats they're targetting. Keep in mind a share of the Lib Dem vote in these seats will be innate Labour supporters (or folk who prefer a Labour government) who are simply voting for the best placed party to prevent a Conservative MP. The first question in the crosstabs asks about tactical voting; 56% of Labour and 60% of Lib Dem 2019 voters would vote tactically.
Additionally, all the supplimentary questions asking about parties focuses on the Conservatives and Labour, with nothing on the Lib Dems (on the questions like "...please select the degree to which you trust [party] to deliver on [issue]").
On top of that, 15% of 2019 Lib Dem voters say they're undecided when it comes to voting intention, compared to 10% of Conservative and 1% of Labour 2019 voters. All of those undecided voters going back to their 2019 party leads to: Con 36.2 (+1.7 on the headline figures), Lab 33.8 (-3.1), LDm 21.8 (+2.0), Grn 4.6 (-0.3), Oth 3.6 (-0.2). And that's before considering tactical voting or any campaign affect (half of the Lib Dem voters moving to Labour right now returning is another 2pp for the Lib Dems for example).
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 11, 2023 20:49:15 GMT
Pretty worrying figures from a Lib Dem POV really. Tbf, I think it reflects the national polling. The Lib Dems are down a little bit on the previous election, Labour are well up and the Conservatives are well down. The Lib Dems traditionally improve their position in a general election campaign - especially in seats they're targetting. Keep in mind a share of the Lib Dem vote in these seats will be innate Labour supporters (or folk who prefer a Labour government) who are simply voting for the best placed party to prevent a Conservative MP. The first question in the crosstabs asks about tactical voting; 56% of Labour and 60% of Lib Dem 2019 voters would vote tactically.
Additionally, all the supplimentary questions asking about parties focuses on the Conservatives and Labour, with nothing on the Lib Dems (on the questions like "...please select the degree to which you trust [party] to deliver on [issue]").
On top of that, 15% of 2019 Lib Dem voters say they're undecided when it comes to voting intention, compared to 10% of Conservative and 1% of Labour 2019 voters. All of those undecided voters going back to their 2019 party leads to: Con 36.2 (+1.7 on the headline figures), Lab 33.8 (-3.1), LDm 21.8 (+2.0), Grn 4.6 (-0.3), Oth 3.6 (-0.2). And that's before considering tactical voting or any campaign affect (half of the Lib Dem voters moving to Labour right now returning is another 2pp for the Lib Dems for example).
Absolutely so. If that 20% "Blue Wall" LD VI represents a combination of ideological Liberal Democrats, general-left-of-centre/centrist-non-Tories and Labour tactical voters, who have all looked at their constituency and decided that we are best placed to beat the Tory, while the 35% of Labour voters are more or less the same people (with a bigger chunk of habitual Labour voters) all deciding that in their particular constituency Labour is better placed, then both parties will do very well and we could be in Tory meltdown territory. But if there's a more general trend of people moving direct to Labour without passing through Lib Dem, based on national politics and with limited knowledge of tactical voting, then you'd see some decent LD gains, some (more?) decent Labour gains, and a lot of places where Labour displace us as second to the Tories but the Tories still holding on. That would not only save the Tory bacon but make it hard for us to challenge again in those seats - the uncommitted centrists/mild liberals will be lost to Labour. Meanwhile, in the seats we've won, we'll be dependent on Labour tactical voters who are likely to desert us if we are seen to be undermining a Labour government or find ourselves in sympathy with a more centrist or liberal Tory party than the current one.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 11, 2023 20:53:02 GMT
I assume this is the same unenlightening selection of seats as previous? I don’t know why on earth they continue to waste time on this nonsense.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 17, 2023 16:02:11 GMT
Labour leads by 12%, the narrowest lead for Labour since Rishi Sunak became PM.
Westminster VI (16 April):
Labour 44% (–) Conservative 32% (+2) Liberal Democrat 10% (–) Reform UK 4% (-2) Green 4% (-1) SNP 4% (+1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 9 April
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Post by andrewp on Apr 18, 2023 16:46:49 GMT
The latest from the wall, presumably a sub section of the 44-32 national poll.
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 18, 2023 18:00:51 GMT
The latest from the wall, presumably a sub section of the 44-32 national poll. no redfield wouldn't publish subsample data
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,304
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 19, 2023 14:21:00 GMT
The latest from the wall, presumably a sub section of the 44-32 national poll They are better than that at least - their "Red Wall", "Blue Wall" and Scottish polls are all stand alone operations.
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Post by batman on Apr 19, 2023 14:56:13 GMT
Maxwell from Maxwell's Silver Hammer stood alone too. That didn't make him OK
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 24, 2023 16:28:52 GMT
Westminster VI (23 April):
Labour 44% (–) Conservative 29% (-3) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Reform UK 6% (+2) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 16 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
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Post by stodge on Apr 24, 2023 21:19:06 GMT
The split of tonight's R&W poll for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 30%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Reform 6%, Green 5% others 1%
That would be a 14% swing across England from Conservative to Labour since 2019 and an 8.5% Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
In terms of the locals (and the comparison has to be taken with a bucketful of salt), the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are about where they were in 2019 while Labour is up to 15 points ahead of its 2019 number.
On that basis you'd be expecting big Labour gains from Conservative and Liberal Democrat and I'll be watching Bolton, Solihull, Dudley and Walsall in particular.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,599
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 24, 2023 21:23:31 GMT
The split of tonight's R&W poll for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 30%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Reform 6%, Green 5% others 1% That would be a 14% swing across England from Conservative to Labour since 2019 and an 8.5% Conservative to Liberal Democrat. In terms of the locals (and the comparison has to be taken with a bucketful of salt), the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are about where they were in 2019 while Labour is up to 15 points ahead of its 2019 number. On that basis you'd be expecting big Labour gains from Conservative and Liberal Democrat and I'll be watching Bolton, Solihull, Dudley and Walsall in particular. Well, you can watch Solihull but Labour are not a major player there. In fact one of their two last councillors defected to the Tories (and the other defected to the Greens). The Tories may lose seats, but it's unlikely to be to Labour.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,068
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 24, 2023 21:26:59 GMT
The split of tonight's R&W poll for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 30%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Reform 6%, Green 5% others 1% That would be a 14% swing across England from Conservative to Labour since 2019 and an 8.5% Conservative to Liberal Democrat. In terms of the locals (and the comparison has to be taken with a bucketful of salt), the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are about where they were in 2019 while Labour is up to 15 points ahead of its 2019 number. On that basis you'd be expecting big Labour gains from Conservative and Liberal Democrat and I'll be watching Bolton, Solihull, Dudley and Walsall in particular. Well, you can watch Solihull but Labour are not a major player there. In fact one of their two last councillors defected to the Tories (and the other defected to the Greens). The Tories may lose seats, but it's unlikely to be to Labour. Would honestly be surprised if Labour won Kingshurst in Solihull, frankly.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Apr 24, 2023 22:07:39 GMT
And we always outperform in local elections compared to General Elections for all sorts of reasons
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 25, 2023 16:45:35 GMT
Looks like we’re getting more of this rubbish:
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Apr 25, 2023 16:47:12 GMT
Uhh….
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