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Post by arnieg on Mar 14, 2023 7:45:45 GMT
that would be what you'd get if you averaged the polls out, yes, so it's unlikely to be far out. Assuming of course that there is no systematic error baked into the currently used methodologies. Ano that is always a big if.
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Post by woollyliberal on Mar 14, 2023 8:16:55 GMT
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Mar 14, 2023 8:33:40 GMT
Interesting to note that Labour did 5 points worse in the 1997 and 2001 General Election compared to what the polls had them on at that time.
EDIT: and in 1992 too. Remarkable symmetry
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Post by batman on Mar 14, 2023 8:47:01 GMT
That is correct, and that's a big reason why polling companies have changed their methodology. Some pollsters have been able to predict the last few elections with a much higher degree of accuracy.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 14, 2023 13:13:20 GMT
Even in 2005, Labour was overstated by much less - and in 2010 not at all. We all know about 2015 but there were maybe some sui generis factors in that one.
As for current polling, I wonder if one reason for the current divergences is the passage of time making the 2019 GE increasingly unreliable as a baseline?
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Post by batman on Mar 14, 2023 13:36:05 GMT
I suspect that many voters voted Conservative in 2019 & either no longer admit or no longer remember doing so.
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 14, 2023 15:21:51 GMT
I must say a lot of voters I talk to do tell me they voted Tory in 2019 for the first time.
From personal experience I've got two or three friends who voted Labour in 2019 who don't remember doing so
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 20, 2023 19:06:15 GMT
Labour 47% (-1) Conservative 26% (-1) Liberal Democrat 11% (–) Green 6% (+1) Reform UK 5% (-1) SNP 4% (+1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 12 March
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 21, 2023 20:21:26 GMT
Red Wall Seats poll on 19th March:
Labour 48% (-3) Conservative 32% (+3) Reform UK 8% (-1) Liberal Democrat 6% (–) Green 4% (+2) Plaid Cymru 1% (–) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 5 March
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 22, 2023 0:22:43 GMT
Red Wall Seats poll on 19th March: Labour 48% (-3) Conservative 32% (+3) Reform UK 8% (-1) Liberal Democrat 6% (–) Green 4% (+2) Plaid Cymru 1% (–) Other 2% (–) Changes +/- 5 March Based on reports that the previous poll would see the Tories lose all the so-called Red Wall seats - what would this mean in terms of them holding some?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Mar 27, 2023 16:21:41 GMT
Westminster VI (26 March):
Labour 46% (-1) Conservative 27% (+1) Liberal Democrat 10% (-1) Reform UK 8% (+3) Green 4% (-2) SNP 3% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 19 March
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Post by robert1 on Apr 3, 2023 16:06:01 GMT
Labour leads by 17%, narrowest lead for Labour since 11 December.
Westminster VI (2 April):
Labour 45% (-1) Conservative 28% (+1) Liberal Democrat 12% (+2) Reform UK 5% (-3) Green 4% (–) SNP 4% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 26 March
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Apr 10, 2023 12:14:47 GMT
There is some poll ramping going on. "It's getting tighter and tighter"...blah blah.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 10, 2023 14:57:54 GMT
There is some poll ramping going on. "It's getting tighter and tighter"...blah blah. Not surprising as most polling companies and media are owned by Conservatives or controlled by Conservatives.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 10, 2023 14:59:19 GMT
There is some poll ramping going on. "It's getting tighter and tighter"...blah blah. Not surprising as most polling companies and media are owned by Conservatives or controlled by Conservatives. Yes it's a conspiracy.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 10, 2023 15:13:59 GMT
Not surprising as most polling companies and media are owned by Conservatives or controlled by Conservatives. Yes it's a conspiracy. Business owners using their assets in a way that benefits them is not even a conspiracy, that's normal and expected.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 10, 2023 16:06:44 GMT
Labour leads by 14%, the narrowest lead for Labour since Rishi Sunak became PM.
Westminster VI (9 April):
Labour 44% (-1) Conservative 30% (+2) Liberal Democrat 10% (-2) Reform UK 6% (+1) Green 5% (+1) SNP 3% (-1) Other 2% (–)
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Apr 10, 2023 16:07:54 GMT
And and and...
I don't trust polling over a bank holiday weekend anyway. But if you want to ramp noise then go ahead...
🙄🙄
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 10, 2023 17:48:23 GMT
I certainly agree that polling over a Bank Holiday weekend is dubious but a small Tory recovery does make sense. The chaos of Truss is fading further into memory and while Sunak is hardly inspiring he is at least giving the vague impression of quite competence. Barring dramatic events I would expect to see the gap close slightly as we move closer to the election with the result being a Labour win in the range of 7-10 points. Does anybody seriously expect a bigger Labour win than the 13 point win in 1997?
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2023 17:55:10 GMT
Not surprising as most polling companies and media are owned by Conservatives or controlled by Conservatives. Yes it's a conspiracy. Maybe someone should poll the polling companies to see if they think their polls are conspiratorial.
Although weighting could be difficult.
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