|
Post by robert1 on Feb 15, 2022 13:47:10 GMT
The point about Labour falling rather than the Tories rising is well made. A much more likely influence on political perceptions than Ukraine is the removal of Covid restrictions. There is a real sense of relief around.
Waterloo station is busy, buses equally and cab drivers are picking people up at Euston, Kings X etc. I've been going regularly to an upmarket resturant in Chelsea for 15-20 years. Yesterday I tried to book a table for Thursday. Utterly fully booked all week. Couldn't offer me a table for 3 at any time!! (first world problem-before anybody says it)
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,854
Member is Online
|
Post by jamie on Feb 15, 2022 14:11:48 GMT
I doubt Ukraine is doing much to cause the apparent swing to the Conservatives. Much more likely is that Partygate is somewhat fading from memory and will continue to do so until the next big revelation.
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,261
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 15, 2022 16:46:15 GMT
Two four point drops for Labour look like they might be a bit more than just noise, though if so what is driving this is still a very open question. (and of course, even if real it could still be just a blip) I expect a strong Conservative recovery due to Ukraine and other matters and this will boost Johnson. The Tories could be leading the polls by next week. Based on what? The Tory share is hardly moving, it is more that the Labour vote has dropped.
|
|
|
Post by gibbon on Feb 15, 2022 16:48:50 GMT
It would be interesting to see regional breakdowns to get a better picture of what is happening, not just for this site but for all the other pollsters.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,310
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 15, 2022 17:35:33 GMT
Since the start of the year the Labour figure has been between 37% and 42% in nearly every published poll, with a couple a little higher. The Conservative figure has been about as consistent, with most polls showing them between 31% and 34% with a couple slightly outside at both ends. There have been little peaks and troughs within this (generally coinciding with bad headlines for the government), but the overall picture has been quite stable, particularly as weekly and fortnightly polls tend to be very wobbly. It also needs to be remembered that the Conservatives polled 45% at the last election and that many polling firms now do all sorts of things to suppress what we might call the 'mid-term effect' (Opinium's latest changes being an especially extreme example). Which isn't to say that the government is necessarily doomed (politics was ever volatile and is now more so than ever), but that it is in a deep hole and that it makes more sense to consider the nature of that hole than point to small shifts here and project them into a sign that they've found a ladder. If they ever do, we won't know for sure until we know for sure.
|
|
|
Post by redtony on Feb 15, 2022 20:52:05 GMT
Labour supporting Tory Government over ukrane is upsetting LBOURS lEFT and pro peace voters and gaining no new voters. but they will come back to labour
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 15, 2022 22:25:29 GMT
But these polls show the Tories up only a bit, its Labour falls which are more relevant. And there was only a tiny uptick in Johnson's rating in this poll - I really don't know why so many seem convinced Ukraine (in essence, a far away conflict of which we know little) is going to be his Falklands. Clear difference with the Falklands in that this time there’s no obvious route to victory, not even an ambitious one. If Putin really wants to annexe Ukraine there’s not much anyone else can do.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 16, 2022 0:27:17 GMT
But these polls show the Tories up only a bit, its Labour falls which are more relevant. And there was only a tiny uptick in Johnson's rating in this poll - I really don't know why so many seem convinced Ukraine (in essence, a far away conflict of which we know little) is going to be his Falklands. Clear difference with the Falklands in that this time there’s no obvious route to victory, not even an ambitious one. If Putin really wants to annexe Ukraine there’s not much anyone else can do. There isn't even a proposed route to victory (unless you call gas prices doubling again "victory"). But the filling of the media with "exactly where Putin will attack and at what hour of what day and with precisely what weapons" may well be distracting people from Partygate. It is not very clear why that should hurt Labour though
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,607
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2022 12:23:13 GMT
Clear difference with the Falklands in that this time there’s no obvious route to victory, not even an ambitious one. If Putin really wants to annexe Ukraine there’s not much anyone else can do. There isn't even a proposed route to victory (unless you call gas prices doubling again "victory"). But the filling of the media with "exactly where Putin will attack and at what hour of what day and with precisely what weapons" may well be distracting people from Partygate. It is not very clear why that should hurt Labour thoughThe above claim that a few left-leaning voters have been put off by Labour's tough rhetoric on the crisis may have something to it. Though one shouldn't overstate this.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 16, 2022 12:34:02 GMT
There isn't even a proposed route to victory (unless you call gas prices doubling again "victory"). But the filling of the media with "exactly where Putin will attack and at what hour of what day and with precisely what weapons" may well be distracting people from Partygate. It is not very clear why that should hurt Labour thoughThe above claim that a few left-leaning voters have been put off by Labour's tough rhetoric on the crisis may have something to it. Though one shouldn't overstate this. It has actually been quite hard to spot what Labour has been saying about it in the MSM - no doubt plenty on Twitter if you follow Momentum I imagine. I looked at the Wiki polling average and Cons are up about two, Lab down 1 in the last week or two. Part of that is one poll with methodology change.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,607
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2022 12:39:36 GMT
Well up to a point, Starmer wrote a well publicised piece for the Graun amongst other things.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 16, 2022 12:47:23 GMT
Well up to a point, Starmer wrote a well publicised piece for the Graun amongst other things. Yes, but there is so much out there that you have to be looking for stuff from Starmer. I look at Guardian articles that are fed to me on my phone, and many of them feature Ukraine, but that one did not reach me. Anyway polling trends should sort themselves out in a week or two.
|
|
|
Post by redtony on Feb 16, 2022 21:20:53 GMT
Labour has a 9 point lead according to todays Com Res 41 to 32
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Feb 21, 2022 17:11:13 GMT
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Feb 28, 2022 21:45:18 GMT
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Mar 7, 2022 17:05:17 GMT
Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 3%, the same margin as in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 28 February in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 40% (+2)
Conservative 37% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 2% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 1% (–)
Boris' ratings have improved markedly. Macron and Biden also appear to be having a bounce.
|
|
|
Post by bigfatron on Mar 7, 2022 17:25:48 GMT
Boris' ratings have improved markedly. Macron and Biden also appear to be having a bounce. There's a war on - folk get behind the Government when there is a war on... TBF, Johnson hasn't done too badly on Ukraine so far - good on standing up for Ukraine and strong rhetoric, poor on actually delivering effective sanctions and on supporting refugees. Standard Johnson really: good at talking, poor at delivery...
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Mar 7, 2022 17:53:06 GMT
To be fair to the PM, you missed supply of anti tank and surface to air missiles on which he was ahead of other governments.
|
|
|
Post by bigfatron on Mar 7, 2022 18:35:50 GMT
To be fair to the PM, you missed supply of anti tank and surface to air missiles on which he was ahead of other governments. Fair point...
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 14, 2022 17:17:53 GMT
|
|