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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2022 20:20:03 GMT
Indeed. I always thought it was a toxic combination of Brexit + Corbyn = gave voters a reason not to vote Labour THIS TIME. I was always confident that they would all return to the default position once (a) Labour got an electable leader, (b) Tories couldnt any longer talk about future "sunlit uplands", because people are living with the day to day realities of what brexit means. Well, I don't think it is that these voters are very disillusioned with Brexit, just that they don't want to hear about it any more. There were significant numbers of Remain voters who voted Tory to get Brexit done, but who woukd have voted Remain had there been another referendum. In fact a significant majority in Oct 2019 said they wished the 2016 referendum had never happened. This is the tragedy of the whole thing. If people had known what Brexit would involve, they would not have voted for it. But now they are OK with it, because in reality at least 20% of voters really did not care one way or the other.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jan 24, 2022 17:28:34 GMT
Their last poll was a bit of an outlier so take the changes with a pinch of salt.
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Post by batman on Jan 24, 2022 18:30:09 GMT
no, this is the outlier. Significantly lower Labour lead than all other pollsters with no particular reason for it.
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 24, 2022 18:42:44 GMT
MoE hopefully...also the latest "party" news has just dropped and surely the "drip drip" effect must surely keep the Tories to 30% or less
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 24, 2022 19:48:49 GMT
no, this is the outlier. Significantly lower Labour lead than all other pollsters with no particular reason for it. It looks to be within MOE of all the recent polls except Yougov. If you took the average of the last two Redfields it would look pretty mainstream. This is a pollster prone to oscillation..
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Jan 24, 2022 20:21:05 GMT
no, this is the outlier. Significantly lower Labour lead than all other pollsters with no particular reason for it. It looks to be within MOE of all the recent polls except Yougov. If you took the average of the last two Redfields it would look pretty mainstream. This is a pollster prone to oscillation.. On average, Redfield have been within 1% for each of the main parties since the start of December; this could be an outlier. Worth pointing out, Redfield are the only pollster (off the top of my head) to not weight by 2016 Brexit vote - so that may lead to more fluctuations as you may get polls due to the sample being overly 'remain' or 'leave'.
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 24, 2022 21:17:08 GMT
It looks to be within MOE of all the recent polls except Yougov. If you took the average of the last two Redfields it would look pretty mainstream. This is a pollster prone to oscillation.. On average, Redfield have been within 1% for each of the main parties since the start of December; this could be an outlier. Worth pointing out, Redfield are the only pollster (off the top of my head) to not weight by 2016 Brexit vote - so that may lead to more fluctuations as you may get polls due to the sample being overly 'remain' or 'leave'. False recall may be introducing systematic error into that weighting by now... (exactly what the effect might be is harder to say!)
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jan 24, 2022 21:23:29 GMT
no, this is the outlier. Significantly lower Labour lead than all other pollsters with no particular reason for it. It looks to be within MOE of all the recent polls except Yougov. If you took the average of the last two Redfields it would look pretty mainstream. This is a pollster prone to oscillation..
I think conducting all of the fieldwork on a single day is an interesting idea, but I imagine it makes the poll more prone to oscillations.
batman - Their last poll was +13 and their new one is +7. The average of polls is around +9/+10. Not sure how this can be described as 'significantly' lower. It's within the MOE of the average.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Jan 24, 2022 21:56:44 GMT
On average, Redfield have been within 1% for each of the main parties since the start of December; this could be an outlier. Worth pointing out, Redfield are the only pollster (off the top of my head) to not weight by 2016 Brexit vote - so that may lead to more fluctuations as you may get polls due to the sample being overly 'remain' or 'leave'. False recall may be introducing systematic error into that weighting by now... (exactly what the effect might be is harder to say!) That's an interesting point. Also you'll have the issue of people 'leaving' and entering the electorate since 2016, especially as older people were more likely to vote for Brexit than younger ones; there's a potential the ratio of Remain/Leave voters is inaccurate to the current electorate. Mind, most Scottish polls still include 2014 referendum vote in the weights, which are now over seven years old!
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 24, 2022 23:36:21 GMT
False recall may be introducing systematic error into that weighting by now... (exactly what the effect might be is harder to say!) That's an interesting point. Also you'll have the issue of people 'leaving' and entering the electorate since 2016, especially as older people were more likely to vote for Brexit than younger ones; And at the same time younger people are becoming older people.
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 25, 2022 9:46:41 GMT
That's an interesting point. Also you'll have the issue of people 'leaving' and entering the electorate since 2016, especially as older people were more likely to vote for Brexit than younger ones; And at the same time younger people are becoming older people. Yes, and they are absorbing different cultural values from their parents and grandparents along the way.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 25, 2022 10:52:06 GMT
That's an interesting point. Also you'll have the issue of people 'leaving' and entering the electorate since 2016, especially as older people were more likely to vote for Brexit than younger ones; And at the same time younger people are becoming older people. Which won't alter how they voted in 2016 (which was the point being made)
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Post by jm on Jan 31, 2022 19:03:09 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 7, 2022 17:03:13 GMT
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Post by philipgraves on Feb 14, 2022 17:01:25 GMT
Labour lead reduced to 5%
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 14, 2022 17:02:41 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 15, 2022 12:48:23 GMT
Two four point drops for Labour look like they might be a bit more than just noise, though if so what is driving this is still a very open question.
(and of course, even if real it could still be just a blip)
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Post by philipgraves on Feb 15, 2022 12:50:09 GMT
Two four point drops for Labour look like they might be a bit more than just noise, though if so what is driving this is still a very open question. (and of course, even if real it could still be just a blip) I expect a strong Conservative recovery due to Ukraine and other matters and this will boost Johnson. The Tories could be leading the polls by next week.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 15, 2022 12:52:18 GMT
But these polls show the Tories up only a bit, its Labour falls which are more relevant. And there was only a tiny uptick in Johnson's rating in this poll - I really don't know why so many seem convinced Ukraine (in essence, a far away conflict of which we know little) is going to be his Falklands.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 15, 2022 13:11:22 GMT
Two four point drops for Labour look like they might be a bit more than just noise, though if so what is driving this is still a very open question. (and of course, even if real it could still be just a blip) I expect a strong Conservative recovery due to Ukraine and other matters and this will boost Johnson. The Tories could be leading the polls by next week. You do realise that the most likely outcome, which is beginning to play out, is that Biden, et. al. announce that Ukraine won’t be allowed to join NATO for x (probably a minimum of 20) years, which was Putin’s end game from the start, and everybody goes back home for a few years until Putin flexes his muscles again, possibly involving Hungary. Meanwhile all the defence hawks from Trump to Tom Tugendhat start bleating about the West caving in to Russia. As for Tories leading the polls next week, a much more likely scenario is the MPS sneak out a press statement early in the week announcing how many Fixed Penalty Notices they’ve issued, followed within hours by Sue Grey’s full report, and Sir Graham Brady wondering if IPSA will allow him to claim for a new letter opener.
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