Vote UK Almanac of British Politics?

[YL]

Oct 30, 2022 10:05:57 GMT The Bishop said:

I see that Robert Waller is diligently working his way through the remaining unprofiled constituencies.

Any chance of an updated list of these, who knows some other people might be inspired to help him finish this project off

There are posts by John Chanin in each regional subboard with a list of missing constituencies, and he keeps them updated.

Scotland
Wales
North East
North West (just the two St Helen's seats)
Yorkshire & the Humber (just Hull W & Hessle)
East (mostly Norfolk)
South East (various Kent seats)

Northern Ireland, the East Midlands, the West Midlands, London and the South West have at least something for every constituency.

[John Chanin]

What I haven’t previously said, is that I will go back to the 40 or so profiles I did early on, and add details about changes in constituency boundaries, once the Boundary Commission releases its revised propisals in a couple of weeks time. I also propose to update the census figures, which may be available in the next release, but I suspect won’t be available for constituencies until 2023.

[Robert Waller]

Oct 30, 2022 10:29:14 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 30, 2022 10:05:57 GMT The Bishop said:

I see that Robert Waller is diligently working his way through the remaining unprofiled constituencies.

Any chance of an updated list of these, who knows some other people might be inspired to help him finish this project off

Here is what I think the list of outstanding constituencies is. 63 to go. I’m sure Robert would welcome some help.


East: Chelmsford, Witham, Norfolk SW, Norfolk Mid, Norfolk South, Broadland, Great Yarmouth, Norwich N.

East Midlands Loughborough.

North East: Stockton S, Stockton N, Durham N, Easington, Houghton & Sunderland S, Washington & Sunderland W, Sunderland C, South Shields.

North West: Ellesmere Port, Halton, St Helens S & whiston, St Helens N

South East: Tonbridge & Malling, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Gillingham & Rainham, Chatham & Aylesford, Rochester & Strood, Gravesham, Dartford, Sevenoaks, Wokingham, Reading E.

Yorkshire: Hull W & Hessle

Wales: Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Wrexham ,Carmarthen E & Dinefwr, Llanelli, Pontypridd, Caerphilly, Merthyr & Rhymney, Islwyn.

Scotland: Ross, Skye etc, Gordon, Perth & N Perthshire, Ochil & S Perthshire, Angus, Dundee E,, Fife NE, Glenrothes, Stirling, Falkirk,Livingston, Edinburgh E, Midlothian, East Lothian, Berwickshire etc, Dumfriesshire etc, Rutherglen & Hamilton W, Lanark & Hamilton E, Motherwell & Wishaw, Coatbridge etc, Airdrie & Shotts, Cumbernauld etc.

Thanks, but I don't think this list takes into account quite a few recent entries ... check John Chanin's latest 'outstanding' threads. I think there are fewer than 50 remaining!

[bjornhattan]

Oct 30, 2022 11:54:19 GMT John Chanin said:

What I haven’t previously said, is that I will go back to the 40 or so profiles I did early on, and add details about changes in constituency boundaries, once the Boundary Commission releases its revised propisals in a couple of weeks time. I also propose to update the census figures, which may be available in the next release, but I suspect won’t be available for constituencies until 2023.

It should be possible to aggregate the figures as soon as they are released from census output areas up to constituencies, but some topics such as housing tenure and education levels won't be released until early January.

[John Chanin]

Oct 30, 2022 12:00:52 GMT bjornhattan said:

Oct 30, 2022 11:54:19 GMT John Chanin said:

What I haven’t previously said, is that I will go back to the 40 or so profiles I did early on, and add details about changes in constituency boundaries, once the Boundary Commission releases its revised propisals in a couple of weeks time. I also propose to update the census figures, which may be available in the next release, but I suspect won’t be available for constituencies until 2023.

It should be possible to aggregate the figures as soon as they are released from census output areas up to constituencies, but some topics such as housing tenure and education levels won't be released until early January.

While you may think since I’m retired I’ve got a lot of free time, there’s absolutely no way I’m going to try and aggregate output areas on several different tables for the whole bloody country, and then order them.  It’s going to have to wait until ONS publishes ward and constituency data, which it will do in due course.

[bjornhattan]

Oct 30, 2022 12:18:25 GMT John Chanin said:

Oct 30, 2022 12:00:52 GMT bjornhattan said:

It should be possible to aggregate the figures as soon as they are released from census output areas up to constituencies, but some topics such as housing tenure and education levels won't be released until early January.

While you may think since I’m retired I’ve got a lot of free time, there’s absolutely no way I’m going to try and aggregate output areas on several different tables for the whole bloody country, and then order them.  It’s going to have to wait until ONS publishes ward and constituency data, which it will do in due course.

It would be far less involved than that - they have released a set of points representing where each output area's population is concentrated, so it would just be a case of putting these into a GIS system with the constituency boundaries and pressing a few buttons.

I'm not saying you have to do it, just that it's a fairly simple process. Of course this might all be a moot point - they might just publish the figures at a constituency level to begin with!

[andrewp]

Oct 30, 2022 11:58:34 GMT Robert Waller said:

Oct 30, 2022 10:29:14 GMT andrewp said:

Thanks, but I don't think this list takes into account quite a few recent entries ... check John Chanin's latest 'outstanding' threads. I think there are fewer than 50 remaining!

Yes, apologies. Per John’s lists, there are 13 to go


North East: Durham N, Easington.

North West: St Helens N

South East: Chatham & Aylesford.

Wales: Merthyr & Rhymney.

Scotland: Ross, Skye etc, Gordon, Perth & N Perthshire, Ochil & S Perthshire,, Glenrothes, Airdrie & Shotts, Cumbernauld etc.

[Robert Waller]

Thanks, I agree with that, except that there is a thread on Glenrothes. Maybe it comes into the 'a little thin' category along with, say, the Nottingham seats, Lewisham Deptford and Norwich South, which are on my radar, if distantly at present.

Like John, I also intend to update my own profiles for boundary changes when available (I have already modified those done in Wales for the revised recommendations).
In due course we are hoping the Census figures will be updated to 2021. Anyone who can speed that process is very welcome to try!
Finally, if and when the boundary changes are confirmed to be in force for the next general election, I think I shall suggest re-organizing this Vote UK Almanac board (additionally) on the lines of the new seats. I know this sounds a bit 'Forth Bridge', but in fact in most cases it should mean adjusting most profiles rather than starting entirely from scratch - and it's fun anyway - isn't it?!

[John Chanin]

Oct 30, 2022 13:30:53 GMT Robert Waller said:

Thanks, I agree with that, except that there is a thread on Glenrothes. Maybe it comes into the 'a little thin' category along with, say, the Nottingham seats, Lewisham Deptford and Norwich South, which are on my radar, if distantly at present.

I left Glenrothes on the list because you said you were going to do it.

[Robert Waller]

I said it was going to be my next one, but someone else got in before I wrote it up, so I turned my priorities elesewhere.
I believe I made some contributions lower down the Glenrothes thread, that was in lieu of writing a full entry myself ... at least until we have at least made a start on all the other constituencies where we have nothing.

As mentioned above, if spared, I might eventually do 'covers' of some seats identified as rather thin. Nottingham, for example, given my thesis on Nottinghamshire history; and as for Deptford, that was where my mother was in the fire service during the Blitz, which gave rise to some stories in the family ...

[Peter Wilkinson]

Incidentally, on which ward and constituency boundaries will the 2021 census figures be published? As the final decisions on 2023 review boundaries are still not due to be published for another eight months, I rather assume that any constituency figures published before then (and perhaps even for some while afterwards) would have to be published on existing constituency boundaries (and not, for instance, on those of the 2018 zombie proposals ).

Of course, to the (perhaps, but probably not quite, total) extent that 2023 constituency boundaries produced by the BCs follow the ward boundaries they were provided with, that might be the relatively small problem of needing to aggregate wards appropriately - except, of course, that the finalised list of wards being used for the 2023 BCE review was only published on 24 March 2021, three days after the official census date in England. In such cases (which include several London boroughs), one presumably just has to hope that aggregation from LSOAs is still indeed possible, with few enough LSOAs having their populations effectively bisected by finalised 2023 constituency boundaries (or desired demographic information only being available at MSOA or above) that no sizeable misattributions creep into the data.

[John Chanin]

Oct 30, 2022 16:53:16 GMT Peter Wilkinson said:

Incidentally, on which ward and constituency boundaries will the 2021 census figures be published? As the final decisions on 2023 review boundaries are still not due to be published for another eight months, I rather assume that any constituency figures published before then (and perhaps even for some while afterwards) would have to be published on existing constituency boundaries (and not, for instance, on those of the 2018 zombie proposals ).

Of course, to the (perhaps, but probably not quite, total) extent that 2023 constituency boundaries produced by the BCs follow the ward boundaries they were provided with, that might be the relatively small problem of needing to aggregate wards appropriately - except, of course, that the finalised list of wards being used for the 2023 BCE review was only published on 24 March 2021, three days after the official census date in England. In such cases (which include several London boroughs), one presumably just has to hope that aggregation from LSOAs is still indeed possible, with few enough LSOAs having their populations effectively bisected by finalised 2023 constituency boundaries (or desired demographic information only being available at MSOA or above) that no sizeable misattributions creep into the data.

My memory (which may be faulty, I used to know this stuff when I needed it for work) is that ONS makes no attempt to recode data when OAs overlap ward boundaries, which they often do.  They simply do what bjornhattan describes above, which is aggregate OAs on a closest match.  Since OAs are small, this makes no practical difference for constituencies or large urban wards, but can lead to some distortion for small rural wards.  Both the BCE and ONS frequently draw non-intuitive boundaries.

The published data will be for the existing (2010) constituencies.  No doubt some organization will do the tedious job of reorganizing the data into the new constituencies, but it won’t be the ONS. I don’t know what wards they will use.  It might be everything that has gone through the formal statutory instrument process on census day, or later, or earlier. I don’t think there’s anything on the census website that says what they will do, but I haven’t pored over all the detail, and I may have missed it.

[John Chanin]

I note that Pete Whitehead and YL have started updating their profiles with the new boundaries by adding new comments. In order to avoid any doubt I am rather updating my original profiles directly with this information (and making minor amendments as I go along).

Edit: As of 23/11 I have updated and amended all the south Essex and NE London seats I did original profiles for 2½ years ago.  I will now tidy up the handful of other seats in East and South-East where I have done profiles, before turning to the West Midlands where I also did a lot 2 years ago, and which therefore have no boundary change information.