mattb
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Post by mattb on Jun 6, 2020 16:59:33 GMT
The issue is what to do about Devon. You could give Devon a whole extra seat but then it might be a struggle to fit in the lower tolerance. Therefore, I would suggest grouping Devon, Somerset and Wiltshire for 2 extra seats (perhaps something along the lines of a Chard and Honiton pairing). Cornwall and Dorset can keep the same number of seats with minimal change. BANES and N Somerset can be paired as you suggest. That leaves a grouping of Gloucestershire, South Gloucestershire and Bristol for one extra seat Purely out of iterest I thought I'd see if it is actually possible on the 2019 ectorates to create 13 whole seats in Devon within 2019 quota and without splitting wards. Turns out the answer is Yes, and the general scheme is actually not too bad but there are some uncomfortable details - I ended up with I think 4 orphan wards and I had to completely re-draw the seats in Plymouth (though that did allow me to reinstate separate Devonport and Sutton seat names). I think West Devon (or "Tavistock & Teign"?) is no worse and in some ways better than current Central Devon. Tiverton and Honiton each get their own seats and East Devon becomes much more tightly drawn and could be re-named Exmouth or Lower Exe. [maps align as closely as possible where there have been subsequent ward boundary changes]   |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 6, 2020 17:16:12 GMT
The issue is what to do about Devon. You could give Devon a whole extra seat but then it might be a struggle to fit in the lower tolerance. Therefore, I would suggest grouping Devon, Somerset and Wiltshire for 2 extra seats (perhaps something along the lines of a Chard and Honiton pairing). Cornwall and Dorset can keep the same number of seats with minimal change. BANES and N Somerset can be paired as you suggest. That leaves a grouping of Gloucestershire, South Gloucestershire and Bristol for one extra seat Purely out of iterest I thought I'd see if it is actually possible on the 2019 ectorates to create 13 whole seats in Devon within 2019 quota and without splitting wards. Turns out the answer is Yes, and the general scheme is actually not too bad but there are some uncomfortable details - I ended up with I think 4 orphan wards and I had to completely re-draw the seats in Plymouth (though that did allow me to reinstate separate Devonport and Sutton seat names). I think West Devon (or "Tavistock & Teign"?) is no worse and in some ways better than current Central Devon. Tiverton and Honiton each get their own seats and East Devon becomes much more tightly drawn and could be re-named Exmouth or Lower Exe.[maps align as closely as possible where there have been subsequent ward boundary changes] Or "Exe Banks" - though the M5 does mean it's just about contiguous. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 6, 2020 17:27:48 GMT
Might be better to split Exeter into East and West seats than have some estuary-crossing monstrosity.
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pl
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Post by pl on Jun 6, 2020 18:38:23 GMT
Might be better to split Exeter into East and West seats than have some estuary-crossing monstrosity. What happens with the notionals if you split Exeter? Two conservative leaning marginals? |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 6, 2020 19:34:11 GMT
Might be better to split Exeter into East and West seats than have some estuary-crossing monstrosity. What happens with the notionals if you split Exeter? Two conservative leaning marginals? Funnily enough, I've recently drawn a first go at the South West – there's enough I'm not happy with that I'm hesitant to post the entire thing (Wiltshire and Cornwall are fairly horrible). But I did have two reasonably sensible Exeter seats:  But it looks like the notionals by ward have disappeared from Electoral Calculus! I imagine this is a dummymander and that Labour would narrowly win both seats. |
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mattb
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Post by mattb on Jun 6, 2020 19:49:38 GMT
Or "Exe Banks" - though the M5 does mean it's just about contiguous. Actually the seat as drawn is linked by the A379 bridge not only the M5 |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 20:51:01 GMT
"Exe Banks" please, please. Surely someone at the Boundary Commission would wear a wry smile at reading that.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 7, 2020 10:16:10 GMT
What happens with the notionals if you split Exeter? Two conservative leaning marginals? Funnily enough, I've recently drawn a first go at the South West – there's enough I'm not happy with that I'm hesitant to post the entire thing (Wiltshire and Cornwall are fairly horrible). But I did have two reasonably sensible Exeter seats: View AttachmentBut it looks like the notionals by ward have disappeared from Electoral Calculus! I imagine this is a dummymander and that Labour would narrowly win both seats. Exeter East: Con 25442, Ind 14539, Lab 11334 Exeter West: Lab 23453, Con 21468 If you add the Claire Wright and Labour votes together, the Conservatives would narrowly lose, but in practice I am sure not all of the Wright voters would be willing to vote Labour. It might be more interesting if Labour stood down in favour of Claire Wright. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2020 22:40:14 GMT
It's far, far too late for me to be trying this. However, I realised that my stubborn refusal to cross the Fylde/Blackpool border was causing my problems earlier today so I tried to do so just now and boy oh boy, the margin for error in just this one part of Lancashire is brutal. One ward out of place and you're screwed. Anyway, for now, and an indication that Andrew and Pete were right in describing the NW as an unenjoyable, less than fun experience this year, here are Fylde; Blackpool and Poulton; Fleetwood and Bispham  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2020 22:41:48 GMT
(The blue bits are the remnants of Lancaster and Wyre which I've had to delete and come back to!)
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 19, 2020 15:42:26 GMT
It's far, far too late for me to be trying this. However, I realised that my stubborn refusal to cross the Fylde/Blackpool border was causing my problems earlier today so I tried to do so just now and boy oh boy, the margin for error in just this one part of Lancashire is brutal. One ward out of place and you're screwed. Anyway, for now, and an indication that Andrew and Pete were right in describing the NW as an unenjoyable, less than fun experience this year, here are Fylde; Blackpool and Poulton; Fleetwood and Bispham Would it not be better to move one of the rural wards out of Fylde so you can leave Blackpool/Fylde uncrossed? I'd send Lancaster towards Preesall and Hambleton, because otherwise they're going to be an ugly arm of whatever horrible seat the Preston Rural wards end up in. The problem with the North West mostly seems to be getting all the awkward wards in Wirral/Cheshire/Greater Manchester sorted, and then Lancashire has to work with whatever's left. Taking any more than Whitworth from Rossendale and Darwen makes a right mess of East Lancs, so I'm trying to find an arrangement with a cross county seat around Chorley or Skem. Bolton North East is a pain. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2020 15:48:05 GMT
It's far, far too late for me to be trying this. However, I realised that my stubborn refusal to cross the Fylde/Blackpool border was causing my problems earlier today so I tried to do so just now and boy oh boy, the margin for error in just this one part of Lancashire is brutal. One ward out of place and you're screwed. Anyway, for now, and an indication that Andrew and Pete were right in describing the NW as an unenjoyable, less than fun experience this year, here are Fylde; Blackpool and Poulton; Fleetwood and Bispham Would it not be better to move one of the rural wards out of Fylde so you can leave Blackpool/Fylde uncrossed? I'd send Lancaster towards Preesall and Hambleton, because otherwise they're going to be an ugly arm of whatever horrible seat the Preston Rural wards end up in. The problem with the North West mostly seems to be getting all the awkward wards in Wirral/Cheshire/Greater Manchester sorted, and then Lancashire has to work with whatever's left. Taking any more than Whitworth from Rossendale and Darwen makes a right mess of East Lancs, so I'm trying to find an arrangement with a cross county seat around Chorley or Skem. Bolton North East is a pain. Yeah I'll definitely have a look around doing that with Fylde. Have you looked at "Chorley and Horwich"? That's my current thinking. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2020 7:17:38 GMT
Not entirely seriously (well not that seriously at all). "Wallasey and Kirkdale" or "Mersey Tunnels". Numbers are *very* tight, one ward either way and you go *way* over quota.   |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 22, 2020 8:44:14 GMT
Not entirely seriously (well not that seriously at all). "Wallasey and Kirkdale" or "Mersey Tunnels". Numbers are *very* tight, one ward either way and you go *way* over quota. A controversial opinion might be that while this constituency is bad, it is better than say ... Lancaster and Fleetwood, and the best possible 5% plan for this region may include this crossing.. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 22, 2020 9:05:50 GMT
Not entirely seriously (well not that seriously at all). "Wallasey and Kirkdale" or "Mersey Tunnels". Numbers are *very* tight, one ward either way and you go *way* over quota. It's somewhat awful, but it isn't that much more offensive than Tyne Bridge, and we had that for 27 years! |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2020 9:11:11 GMT
Really no comparison, not least because there is not just one bridge over the Tyne but several  |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 22, 2020 9:26:19 GMT
Really no comparison, not least because there is not just one bridge over the Tyne but several Up to seven now - the Swing Bridge (road), the High Level Bridge (road/rail), the Tyne Bridge (road), the Gateshead Millennium Bridge (foot), the King Edward VII Bridge (rail), the Queen Elizabeth II Bridge (Metro) and the (New) Redheugh Bridge (road). |
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