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Post by andrewteale on May 20, 2020 21:44:39 GMT
So. 650. Option A: Government genuinely believes that the consequences of Brexit mean we need to keep this number of MPs Option B: The Government has been advised that it will do very well at the next election with the number of MPs staying the same, what with the red wall and everything.. Option C: The backbenches weren't happy about job losses and need keeping on side. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 20, 2020 22:00:58 GMT
So. 650. Option A: Government genuinely believes that the consequences of Brexit mean we need to keep this number of MPs Option B: The Government has been advised that it will do very well at the next election with the number of MPs staying the same, what with the red wall and everything.. Option C: The backbenches weren't happy about job losses and need keeping on side. Option D: They've realised trying to do *two* reforms in one go (reduce seats + reduce variance) is too big a task. |
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Post by islington on May 21, 2020 8:51:04 GMT
Option C: The backbenches weren't happy about job losses and need keeping on side. Option D: They've realised trying to do *two* reforms in one go (reduce seats + reduce variance) is too big a task. Option E: All of the above. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2020 10:41:50 GMT
To avoid too much overlap between the two threads, are we happy with this one being the "speculative ideas/maps/proposals/" thread, and the "Changes to.." being specifically about the progress of the Bill and the more detailed "administrative" side of things?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2020 16:26:46 GMT
Using: I make the quota based on that 72,754 It's a bit unhelpful that they don't publish the Parliamentary electorate by LA - perhaps they meant to do that in Table 3 (which otherwise seems to be identical to table 1) I've tweaked my Lancashire:   I'm not very keen on Preston, but PlanBuilder still uses the old wards for Preston Council so it's not quite ideal. Adding Walton-le-Dale isn't without precedent, it just looks appalling on a map. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 22, 2020 21:46:36 GMT
So. 650. Option A: Government genuinely believes that the consequences of Brexit mean we need to keep this number of MPs Option B: The Government has been advised that it will do very well at the next election with the number of MPs staying the same, what with the red wall and everything.. Option C: The backbenches weren't happy about job losses and need keeping on side. As it is, there are now a lot of Conservative MPs in marginal seats who will be understandably jittery about a good number of plausible permutations on 650. |
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Post by greenhert on May 22, 2020 22:26:49 GMT
So. 650. Option A: Government genuinely believes that the consequences of Brexit mean we need to keep this number of MPs Option B: The Government has been advised that it will do very well at the next election with the number of MPs staying the same, what with the red wall and everything.. Option C: The backbenches weren't happy about job losses and need keeping on side. There may still be a few, especially in Wales, and some may be forced to contest new, merged seats against opposition MPs just like in February 1974 (five Conservative MPs ended up contesting merged seats against Labour MPs that year, and only Barney Hayhoe [later Baron Hayhoe] won his merged seat). In Lancashire, for example, Cat Smith will likely end up competing against either Ben Wallace or David Morris depending on which seat Lancaster gets placed in once the review is complete. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2020 13:44:38 GMT
In the Dec 2019 thread andrewteale outlined just how difficult things might be in the North West, and particularly parts of Gtr. Manchester. Bacup was mentioned, and so Andrew, here's Bacup added to Rochdale (with Littleborough excised to a place yet unknown)  |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 23, 2020 13:51:44 GMT
I completed Wales this morning only to realise I had created a Wales of 31 seats not 32 seats and therefore had to start from scratch
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 24, 2020 18:18:11 GMT
I completed Wales this morning only to realise I had created a Wales of 31 seats not 32 seats and therefore had to start from scratch Easily done. What I guess you did is: 7 seats: Gwynedd + Clwyd (7.26) 4 seats: Dyfed (3.93) 11 seats: West Glamorgan + Powys + Gwent (11.30), i.e. - 1 seat: Montgomeryshire + Radnorshire + Brecknockshire north of Mynydd Epynt (1.03)
- 4 seats: Swansea + Neath Port Talbot + Brecknockshire south-west of the Beacons (4.03)
- 6 seats: Gwent + remainder of Brecknockshire (6.24)
3 seats: Merthyr Tydfil + Rhondda Cynon Taf (3.03)
6 seats: Cardiff + Vale + Bridgend (6.10) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 18:27:23 GMT
I completed Wales this morning only to realise I had created a Wales of 31 seats not 32 seats and therefore had to start from scratch Easily done. What I guess you did is: 7 seats: Gwynedd + Clwyd (7.26) 4 seats: Dyfed (3.93) 11 seats: West Glamorgan + Powys + Gwent (11.30), i.e. - 1 seat: Montgomeryshire + Radnorshire + Brecknockshire north of Mynydd Epynt (1.03)
- 4 seats: Swansea + Neath Port Talbot + Brecknockshire south-west of the Beacons (4.03)
- 6 seats: Gwent + remainder of Brecknockshire (6.24)
3 seats: Merthyr Tydfil + Rhondda Cynon Taf (3.03)
6 seats: Cardiff + Vale + Bridgend (6.10) I thought about tackling Wales on the basis that 32 seats might be do-able as a lazy Sunday exercise in problem solving. Then having created ""Arfordir y Fflint" and feeling good about Powys, I got into the hilly mountainous middle bits and decided that I quite like Wales too much as a country to inflict any damage upon it. |
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Post by Penddu on May 24, 2020 18:43:55 GMT
The only way to carve up Wales is to start at the 4 corners and work in. It all works easily except for Port Talbot and northern Powys
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 18:48:14 GMT
The only way to carve up Wales is to start at the 4 corners and work in. It all works easily except for Port Talbot and northern Powys Yeah I think that's been said before during the zombie reviews. I always make the mistake of working from the north coast southwards, as though you have to start from Ynys Môn and work east, and then Gwynedd and work east, then Ceredigion etc , almost like a knitting pattern. Maybe I should have a proper crack at the four-corners approach. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 24, 2020 20:20:15 GMT
The only way to carve up Wales is to start at the 4 corners and work in. It all works easily except for Port Talbot and northern Powys Yeah I think that's been said before during the zombie reviews. I always make the mistake of working from the north coast southwards, as though you have to start from Ynys Môn and work east, and then Gwynedd and work east, then Ceredigion etc , almost like a knitting pattern. Maybe I should have a proper crack at the four-corners approach. Where's the best place in mid-Wales to purchase pitchforks? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 20:21:48 GMT
Yeah I think that's been said before during the zombie reviews. I always make the mistake of working from the north coast southwards, as though you have to start from Ynys Môn and work east, and then Gwynedd and work east, then Ceredigion etc , almost like a knitting pattern. Maybe I should have a proper crack at the four-corners approach. Where's the best place in mid-Wales to purchase pitchforks? If the last review was any guide, Machynlleth. |
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Post by andrewteale on May 24, 2020 22:03:05 GMT
Yeah I think that's been said before during the zombie reviews. I always make the mistake of working from the north coast southwards, as though you have to start from Ynys Môn and work east, and then Gwynedd and work east, then Ceredigion etc , almost like a knitting pattern. Maybe I should have a proper crack at the four-corners approach. Where's the best place in mid-Wales to purchase pitchforks? In Montgomeryshire they forge their own pitchforks using barbed wire and dragon's breath. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 24, 2020 22:09:57 GMT
Yeah I think that's been said before during the zombie reviews. I always make the mistake of working from the north coast southwards, as though you have to start from Ynys Môn and work east, and then Gwynedd and work east, then Ceredigion etc , almost like a knitting pattern. Maybe I should have a proper crack at the four-corners approach. Where's the best place in mid-Wales to purchase pitchforks? Oswestry. [hides] |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 25, 2020 5:21:52 GMT
Where's the best place in mid-Wales to purchase pitchforks? Oswestry. [hides] Heh, beat me to it. I was going to suggest Shrewsbury or Birmingham. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2020 5:58:04 GMT
andrewteale and Pete Whitehead mentioned elsewhere about the fun and games in the NW and neither are wrong, it's spinning plates in an earthquake. Blackburn goes within quota but this knocks Accrington/Hyndburn out, so one ward gets added to "Accrington and Padiham" but this knocks "Burnley and Nelson" out of quota so a ward is added and this knocks "Pendle and Ribble Valley" out of quota which in turn knocks Blackburn out of quota which in turn...which in turn..which in turn... 
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 25, 2020 11:06:22 GMT
The only way to carve up Wales is to start at the 4 corners and work in. It all works easily except for Port Talbot and northern Powys I'm surprised that those areas give you grief. If you play it completely straight, those areas are fine. If you're getting problems in those places, you've probably chosen to mediate other areas' problems through them. 1) Why northern Powys isn't difficult: Clwyd, Gwynedd, and Montgomeryshire are nearly exactly entitled to 8 seats. So let's start in the corner, as you say. Flintshire and Wrexham are a good fit for 3 seats. To get this to work, Delyn needs to add Buckley and Ewloe from Alyn and Deeside, and then Alyn and Deeside needs to take all of those villages north-west of Wrexham town from Llay to Minera. Delyn 68686 Yes Alyn and Deeside 69130 Yes Wrexham 71002 Yes Denbighshire only needs to lose a couple of wards to Conwy to have a single nice constituency covering most of the County. Because I dislike Rhyl, I have chosen Rhyl West and Rhyl South West (but obviously you can choose any combination of wards along the western border). Then Llandudno needs to go into the Clwyd West half of Conwy. Vale of Clwyd 66966 Yes Clwyd West 67581 Yes Montgomeryshire and the Meirionnydd District of Gwynedd council are then within quota. Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 70201 Yes This then leaves Anglesey, the Dwyfor and Arfon Districts of Gwynedd, and Aberconwy (less Llandudno) easily within quota for two seats. There are a couple of ways of drawing this. The obvious one is to add an area around Bangor to Anglesey and to have a landward semi-doughnut. Alternatively (as I have drawn), you can have a pleasing Conwy and Arfon seat and just accept that with islands and remote sparsely populated peninsulas you sometimes get discontiguous constituencies – after all, no-one's stopping whatever the WDA is now called from pissing our money up the wall on a Nefyn to Holyhead ferry. Conwy and Arfon 67339 Yes Anglesey and Dwyfor 67210 Yes Of course, if you want to reject both options in the north west that a tidy Clwyd leaves you with, then you could well end up mediating that choice all the way round to Montgomeryshire... 2) why Port Talbot isn't difficultTo be continued, as apparently I have reached the attachment limit... |
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