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Post by Penddu on May 28, 2020 14:46:35 GMT
South West Wales splits nicely into 8 seats - 4 in Dyfed and 4 in West Glamorgan. South Central and South East Wales (inc South Powys) - 16 seats - needs more work No need for any "South Powys" seat to cross over into Glamorgan or Gwent. Instead link most of Montgomeryshire with South Clwyd, awkward as that may be. Dyfed fits 4 seats by itself as does West Glamorgan. The main issue with Gwent's constituencies is how to split Newport-I ended up with "Caerphilly and Newport West". Mid Glamorgan is easy-link Merthyr Tydfil with Rhonda Cynon Taf (Rhymney can be linked with Blaenau Gwent, since Rhymney is in Gwent not Mid Glamorgan); this leads to a Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare constituency, an expanded Pontypridd constituency and a modified Rhondda constituency which fits perfectly. South Powys fits geographically with northen Monmouthshire - adding Abergavenny area. Then adding bits of Newport East to remaining Monmouthshire.. |
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2020 14:57:12 GMT
Morecambe & Lonsdale would be far better than Morecambe & Westmorland, believe me. Penrith can instead be linked with Cockermouth as it was from 1918-1950. When I get home I'll try Lancaster and Morecambe and see what that does for a cross border seat. |
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YL
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Post by YL on May 28, 2020 16:26:36 GMT
Cumbria is really, really hard. (Cross-County Seat) Morecambe and Westmorland 1. Penrith and The Lakes 2. Carlisle 3. Cumberland 4. West Cumrbia 5. Barrow and Furness Stretching the definition of "Westmorland" a bit. Based on the 2015 electorates currently on Boundary Assistant, I had 1. Whitehaven & Workington (all of Copeland, plus Workington town) 2. North Lakeland (Allerdale less Workington, north-western bits of Eden, Burgh and Dalston wards of Carlisle; other names are available) 3. Carlisle (rest of Carlisle district) 4. Penrith & Westmorland (Penrith, Langwathby, Hartside, Alston and the historically Westmorland bits of Eden, north-eastern South Lakeland including Kendal and Windermere towns) 5. Barrow & Furness (expanded to include Coniston and Hawkshead) 6. Morecambe & Lonsdale (Cumbria component including the Cartmel and Grange over Sands areas, and the Milnthorpe area south of Kendal) I'm not entirely happy with this, but I think it avoids having too many places separated by mountains and lakes from the rest of their constituencies. It may not work on the actual figures to be used for the review anyway. |
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2020 17:04:46 GMT
Cumbria is really, really hard. (Cross-County Seat) Morecambe and Westmorland 1. Penrith and The Lakes 2. Carlisle 3. Cumberland 4. West Cumrbia 5. Barrow and Furness Stretching the definition of "Westmorland" a bit. Based on the 2015 electorates currently on Boundary Assistant, I had 1. Whitehaven & Workington (all of Copeland, plus Workington town) 2. North Lakeland (Allerdale less Workington, north-western bits of Eden, Burgh and Dalston wards of Carlisle; other names are available) 3. Carlisle (rest of Carlisle district) 4. Penrith & Westmorland (Penrith, Langwathby, Hartside, Alston and the historically Westmorland bits of Eden, north-eastern South Lakeland including Kendal and Windermere towns) 5. Barrow & Furness (expanded to include Coniston and Hawkshead) 6. Morecambe & Lonsdale (Cumbria component including the Cartmel and Grange over Sands areas, and the Milnthorpe area south of Kendal) I'm not entirely happy with this, but I think it avoids having too many places separated by mountains and lakes from the rest of their constituencies. It may not work on the actual figures to be used for the review anyway. Yeah I'll hold my hands up, I wasn't entirely sure if Westmorland was even in my Morecambe seat if I'm honest 😂 |
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Post by belvoir on May 28, 2020 18:18:59 GMT
Stretching the definition of "Westmorland" a bit. Based on the 2015 electorates currently on Boundary Assistant, I had 1. Whitehaven & Workington (all of Copeland, plus Workington town) 2. North Lakeland (Allerdale less Workington, north-western bits of Eden, Burgh and Dalston wards of Carlisle; other names are available) 3. Carlisle (rest of Carlisle district) 4. Penrith & Westmorland (Penrith, Langwathby, Hartside, Alston and the historically Westmorland bits of Eden, north-eastern South Lakeland including Kendal and Windermere towns) 5. Barrow & Furness (expanded to include Coniston and Hawkshead) 6. Morecambe & Lonsdale (Cumbria component including the Cartmel and Grange over Sands areas, and the Milnthorpe area south of Kendal) I'm not entirely happy with this, but I think it avoids having too many places separated by mountains and lakes from the rest of their constituencies. It may not work on the actual figures to be used for the review anyway. Yeah I'll hold my hands up, I wasn't entirely sure if Westmorland was even in my Morecambe seat if I'm honest 😂 The counties as they were, are, and eevvvvvver more shall be so: wikishire.co.uk/map/#/centre=54.004,-4.500/zoom=7/base=colour_detached |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on May 29, 2020 8:17:06 GMT
 My plan for Cumbria... Westmorland roughly aligns to its historic boundaries, Morecambe Bay is somewhat incongruous in terms of its transport links and the fact it doesn't actually join up by land, but that didn't stop Lancaster and Fleetwood going through! And of course Morecambe and Ulverston etc used to be in the same county. I think the tricky bit will be the knock-on effects in Lancashire which I will have a play with later. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 29, 2020 10:19:45 GMT
Barrow reaching to the very edge of Whitehaven? Hmmm, not sure about that one.
Cumbria is certainly an instance of where relaxing the rigid 5% difference rule might possibly help a bit.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2020 11:12:20 GMT
Barrow reaching to the very edge of Whitehaven? Hmmm, not sure about that one. Cumbria is certainly an instance of where relaxing the rigid 5% difference rule might possibly help a bit. I thought that myself as I tried my effort. I filled in all the existing seats and tried to play a kind of boundary version of Go turning wards different colours. There will be only a few possible workable options here. |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on May 29, 2020 12:20:29 GMT
Yes, I think it’s very much a case of finding the best worst option with a 5% variance.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 29, 2020 12:31:58 GMT
Yeah I'll hold my hands up, I wasn't entirely sure if Westmorland was even in my Morecambe seat if I'm honest 😂 The counties as they were, are, and eevvvvvver more shall be so: wikishire.co.uk/map/#/centre=54.004,-4.500/zoom=7/base=colour_detached It's weird and wonderful, isn't it? The area around Warley and Langley Green looks to be worse than Baarle-Nassau/Baarle-Hertog (although it isn't national borders we're dealing with here). |
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Post by greenhert on May 29, 2020 14:30:16 GMT
Having seen a lot of permutations of possible boundaries for a 650 seat review with a 5% quota (as intended by the government), it is becoming clear which sitting MPs are most likely to be in trouble regarding boundary changes alone:
Ben Wallace, Defence Secretary. His Wyre & Preston North seat will almost certainly be scattered to the four winds especially given how undersized the current Preston constituency is and the need for both Blackpool seats to expand northwards. He could easily be the most high profile casualty of these constituency boundary changes. Holding or having recently held ministerial office is no defence against boundary change-related deselection, as Jock Bruce-Gardyne (later Baron Bruce-Gardyne) found to his cost in 1983.
Ian Lavery, former Labour Party Chairman. Wansbeck will either disappear completely or absorb enough of next-door Hexham or Blyth Valley to push it notionally into the Conservative column.
Mark Jenkinson. One Cumbria seat will disappear and it is likely to be Workington, given that Copeland will need to expand northwards with Penrith having to expand westwards at least somewhat.
Andrew Gwynne. Denton & Reddish will almost certainly disappear.
Ruth Jones. With the Monmouth constituency set to expand to include all of the Monmouthshire council area, this has a knock on effect on Newport East which subsequently has to expand westwards. This means Newport West will be effectively abolished.
Beth Winter and Chris Bryant. One of their seats will be abolished, but which one? I personally predict Cynon Valley.
Simon Hart. There is no good reason to retain Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire as a constituency; he will likely have to compete against a Plaid Cymru MP (it may be Jonathan Edwards, currently suspended from Plaid Cymru, or it may be whoever obtains the Plaid Cymru selection should Mr Edwards have to stand down) in what will likely be a resurrected Carmarthen constituency.
Virginia Crosbie. With Ynys Mon no longer being protected by "geographical considerations" in terms of constituency boundaries, she will almost certainly compete against Hywel Williams, Plaid Cymru MP for Arfon (which has no chance of survival under the proposed criteria).
Simon Baynes and Craig Williams. Their constituencies are likely to be merged since Powys is not protected under this review and it is almost certain that what is left of Montgomeryshire will expand into south Clwyd, meaning one of them will have to find a seat elsewhere.
David Jones and James Davies. Aberconwy is likely to expand eastwards meaning that in turn Clwyd West will almost certainly not survive. What remains will likely merge with much of the Vale of Clwyd to form (hypothetically) Denbigh, Rhyl & Colwyn Bay (although it could also be called Clwyd North West).
Tonia Antoniazzi and Christina Rees. In West Glamorgan a merger of Gower and the outer reaches of the Neath constituency is likely.
Jamie Wallis. The Bridgend constituency is likely to be split, with Bridgend going into either a redrawn Ogmore seat or a redrawn and renamed Vale of Glamorgan seat.
In addition the redrawing of Black Country constituencies will likely pit one Conservative MP against one Labour MP, one Conservative MP will be squeezed out in Staffordshire, another will be squeezed out in former Humberside, and one Labour MP will be squeezed out in Tyne & Wear.
As Sheila Faith, Iain Sproat and David Myles found out in particular in 1983, there is no guarantee that they can just jump to a new constituency somewhere else.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2020 14:48:49 GMT
WRT Ben Wallace, we know how things work. Nigel Evans will become Baron Evans of Clitheroe and Wallace gets a seat.
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YL
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Post by YL on May 29, 2020 16:34:37 GMT
Having seen a lot of permutations of possible boundaries for a 650 seat review with a 5% quota (as intended by the government), it is becoming clear which sitting MPs are most likely to be in trouble regarding boundary changes alone: Is it? It's not as if the Commissions are that predictable, and we don't even have the numbers they'll be working from yet. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 29, 2020 16:40:46 GMT
Ian Lavery, former Labour Party Chairman. Wansbeck will either disappear completely or absorb enough of next-door Hexham or Blyth Valley to push it notionally into the Conservative column. Obviously there's various possible permutations, but having played a little with the boundaries in that area it seems likely that as Berwick needs to expand the most logical area to add would be Morpeth. This would leave a rump of Wansbeck based on Ashington and Bedlington which would need to merge with much of Blyth Valley, most likely in the form of Blyth itself (with Cramlington and/or the Seaton Valley joining a cross border Northumberland/North Tyneside seat). Such a seat combining Blyth with Ashington etc would be rock solid for Labour even on the 2019 numbers |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 29, 2020 19:54:25 GMT
Virginia Crosbie. With Ynys Mon no longer being protected by "geographical considerations" in terms of constituency boundaries, she will almost certainly compete against Hywel Williams, Plaid Cymru MP for Arfon (which has no chance of survival under the proposed criteria). You've completely missed who sticking Bangor into Ynys Môn is actually good for. |
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Post by greenhert on May 29, 2020 22:02:46 GMT
Virginia Crosbie. With Ynys Mon no longer being protected by "geographical considerations" in terms of constituency boundaries, she will almost certainly compete against Hywel Williams, Plaid Cymru MP for Arfon (which has no chance of survival under the proposed criteria). You've completely missed who sticking Bangor into Ynys Môn is actually good for. It overall will be good for both Plaid Cymru and Labour. I was referencing the inevitability of the constituency of Arfon being abolished. |
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mattb
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Post by mattb on May 30, 2020 4:57:09 GMT
Mark Jenkinson. One Cumbria seat will disappear and it is likely to be Workington, given that Copeland will need to expand northwards with Penrith having to expand westwards at least somewhat. Surely the biggest loser in Cumbria this time is Tim Farron? Given the inevitability of a cross-country seat under a 650-quota. |
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 7:17:06 GMT
Mark Jenkinson. One Cumbria seat will disappear and it is likely to be Workington, given that Copeland will need to expand northwards with Penrith having to expand westwards at least somewhat. Surely the biggest loser in Cumbria this time is Tim Farron? Given the inevitability of a cross-country seat under a 650-quota. This has crossed my mind. If there has to be a cross-county seat, TIm will either have to fight Morecambe + X, or wherever the Lakes/northern Westmorland part goes, and that would dilute the LD vote on a fingerclick. |
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mattb
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Post by mattb on May 30, 2020 11:56:24 GMT
Surely the biggest loser in Cumbria this time is Tim Farron? Given the inevitability of a cross-country seat under a 650-quota. This has crossed my mind. If there has to be a cross-county seat, TIm will either have to fight Morecambe + X, or wherever the Lakes/northern Westmorland part goes, and that would dilute the LD vote on a fingerclick.
One option based on the 2019 electorates & quota might look something like this - boundaries shown are best-fit with new ward boundaries.
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Post by bjornhattan on May 30, 2020 12:02:47 GMT
Forgive my ignorance, but are we certain the old regions will be used for this new review?
Granted, there doesn't seem to be an easy Northumberland/Cumbria seat (you either end up with Hexham and Penrith or a weird split of Carlisle), but is this explicitly barred?
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