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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 25, 2020 11:19:49 GMT
2) why Port Talbot isn't difficult West Glamorgan is within quota for four seats. Neath can be easily brought up to quota by adding Briton Ferry and the Afan Valley. Gower similarly is easy – you just reunite Mumbles by adding the Mayals ward, and then pull in Dunvant and Killay. Swansea West then needs to gain a bit from Swansea East (limited options, because the useless, lazy local government commission drew ridiculous multi-member FPTP wards), and then finally Port Talbot can go in with Swansea East for a nice sensible constituency around Swansea Bay. Neath 67507 Yes Gower 68756 Yes Swansea West 66409 Yes Swansea East and Aberavon 67187 Yes Why I suspect you're struggling with this area is that Gwent is an easy six seats (1 seat in Monmouthshire, 1 in Torfaen, then 4 for the other three boroughs), and this leaves Radnorshire + Brecknockshire + Mid Glamorgan + South Glamorgan needing a Beacon-crossing monstrosity putting Aberdare into Brecon. So you've tried mediating the cross-boundary Powys-Mid Glamorgan seat through West Glamorgan to make it less awful. But you don't actually need to go that far, as you can simply swap the ex-Pontardawe RDC wards with the Aberdare ones between the Neath and Brecon constituencies – they have very similar-sized electorates. You can then keep Merthyr Tydfil + Mountain Ash, Rhondda + Pontypridd Town, and then add the remainder of the former Taff-Ely district to Cardiff, the Vale, and Bridgend for a workable 7 seats.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 25, 2020 12:48:37 GMT
2) why Port Talbot isn't difficultView AttachmentWest Glamorgan is within quota for four seats. Neath can be easily brought up to quota by adding Briton Ferry and the Afan Valley. Gower similarly is easy – you just reunite Mumbles by adding the Mayals ward, and then pull in Dunvant and Killay. Swansea West then needs to gain a bit from Swansea East (limited options, because the useless, lazy local government commission drew ridiculous multi-member FPTP wards), and then finally Port Talbot can go in with Swansea East for a nice sensible constituency around Swansea Bay. Neath 67507 Yes Gower 68756 Yes Swansea West 66409 Yes Swansea East and Aberavon 67187 Yes Why I suspect you're struggling with this area is that Gwent is an easy six seats (1 seat in Monmouthshire, 1 in Torfaen, then 4 for the other three boroughs), and this leaves Radnorshire + Brecknockshire + Mid Glamorgan + South Glamorgan needing a Beacon-crossing monstrosity putting Aberdare into Brecon. So you've tried mediating the cross-boundary Powys-Mid Glamorgan seat through West Glamorgan to make it less awful. But you don't actually need to go that far, as you can simply swap the ex-Pontardawe RDC wards with the Aberdare ones between the Neath and Brecon constituencies – they have very similar-sized electorates. You can then keep Merthyr Tydfil + Mountain Ash, Rhondda + Pontypridd Town, and then add the remainder of the former Taff-Ely district to Cardiff, the Vale, and Bridgend for a workable 7 seats. I think you should go for the old pre-1918 names of Swansea Town (West) and Swansea District (East and Aberavon) |
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Post by greenhert on May 25, 2020 12:49:23 GMT
The only way to carve up Wales is to start at the 4 corners and work in. It all works easily except for Port Talbot and northern Powys I'm surprised that those areas give you grief. If you play it completely straight, those areas are fine. If you're getting problems in those places, you've probably chosen to mediate other areas' problems through them. 1) Why northern Powys isn't difficult:Clwyd, Gwynedd, and Montgomeryshire are nearly exactly entitled to 8 seats. So let's start in the corner, as you say. Flintshire and Wrexham are a good fit for 3 seats. To get this to work, Delyn needs to add Buckley and Ewloe from Alyn and Deeside, and then Alyn and Deeside needs to take all of those villages north-west of Wrexham town from Llay to Minera. Delyn 68686 Yes Alyn and Deeside 69130 Yes Wrexham 71002 Yes Denbighshire only needs to lose a couple of wards to Conwy to have a single nice constituency covering most of the County. Because I dislike Rhyl, I have chosen Rhyl West and Rhyl South West (but obviously you can choose any combination of wards along the western border). Then Llandudno needs to go into the Clwyd West half of Conwy. Vale of Clwyd 66966 Yes Clwyd West 67581 Yes Montgomeryshire and the Meirionnydd District of Gwynedd council are then within quota. Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 70201 Yes This then leaves Anglesey, the Dwyfor and Arfon Districts of Gwynedd, and Aberconwy (less Llandudno) easily within quota for two seats. There are a couple of ways of drawing this. The obvious one is to add an area around Bangor to Anglesey and to have a landward semi-doughnut. Alternatively (as I have drawn), you can have a pleasing Conwy and Arfon seat and just accept that with islands and remote sparsely populated peninsulas you sometimes get discontiguous constituencies – after all, no-one's stopping whatever the WDA is now called from pissing our money up the wall on a Nefyn to Holyhead ferry. Conwy and Arfon 67339 Yes Anglesey and Dwyfor 67210 Yes Of course, if you want to reject both options in the north west that a tidy Clwyd leaves you with, then you could well end up mediating that choice all the way round to Montgomeryshire... 2) why Port Talbot isn't difficultTo be continued, as apparently I have reached the attachment limit... A "Montgomery and Meirionydd" seat will never be accepted as it will rightly be seen as a gerrymander by local residents and politicians given the disparity in the number of Welsh speakers in Meirionydd and the number of Welsh speakers in Gogledd Faldwyn/North Montgomeryshire (although admittedly a Clwyd South & Montgomeryshire North seat will not be much better either; Powys really should be exempt from the 5% requirement because of its special geographical difficulties, as should Ynys Mon). |
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Post by hullenedge on May 25, 2020 12:57:53 GMT
I'm surprised that those areas give you grief. If you play it completely straight, those areas are fine. If you're getting problems in those places, you've probably chosen to mediate other areas' problems through them. 1) Why northern Powys isn't difficult:Clwyd, Gwynedd, and Montgomeryshire are nearly exactly entitled to 8 seats. So let's start in the corner, as you say. Flintshire and Wrexham are a good fit for 3 seats. To get this to work, Delyn needs to add Buckley and Ewloe from Alyn and Deeside, and then Alyn and Deeside needs to take all of those villages north-west of Wrexham town from Llay to Minera. Delyn 68686 Yes Alyn and Deeside 69130 Yes Wrexham 71002 Yes Denbighshire only needs to lose a couple of wards to Conwy to have a single nice constituency covering most of the County. Because I dislike Rhyl, I have chosen Rhyl West and Rhyl South West (but obviously you can choose any combination of wards along the western border). Then Llandudno needs to go into the Clwyd West half of Conwy. Vale of Clwyd 66966 Yes Clwyd West 67581 Yes Montgomeryshire and the Meirionnydd District of Gwynedd council are then within quota. Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 70201 Yes This then leaves Anglesey, the Dwyfor and Arfon Districts of Gwynedd, and Aberconwy (less Llandudno) easily within quota for two seats. There are a couple of ways of drawing this. The obvious one is to add an area around Bangor to Anglesey and to have a landward semi-doughnut. Alternatively (as I have drawn), you can have a pleasing Conwy and Arfon seat and just accept that with islands and remote sparsely populated peninsulas you sometimes get discontiguous constituencies – after all, no-one's stopping whatever the WDA is now called from pissing our money up the wall on a Nefyn to Holyhead ferry. Conwy and Arfon 67339 Yes Anglesey and Dwyfor 67210 Yes Of course, if you want to reject both options in the north west that a tidy Clwyd leaves you with, then you could well end up mediating that choice all the way round to Montgomeryshire... 2) why Port Talbot isn't difficultTo be continued, as apparently I have reached the attachment limit... A "Montgomery and Meirionydd" seat will never be accepted as it will rightly be seen as a gerrymander by local residents and politicians given the disparity in the number of Welsh speakers in Meirionydd and the number of Welsh speakers in Gogledd Faldwyn/North Montgomeryshire (although admittedly a Clwyd South & Montgomeryshire North seat will not be much better either; Powys really should be exempt from the 5% requirement because of its special geographical difficulties, as should Ynys Mon). Merioneth and Montgomery was first proposed in 1946. It was not popular then because of the size of the constituency and the distinct character of both counties. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 25, 2020 13:19:51 GMT
A "Montgomery and Meirionydd" seat will never be accepted as it will rightly be seen as a gerrymander by local residents and politicians given the disparity in the number of Welsh speakers in Meirionydd and the number of Welsh speakers in Gogledd Faldwyn/North Montgomeryshire (although admittedly a Clwyd South & Montgomeryshire North seat will not be much better either; Powys really should be exempt from the 5% requirement because of its special geographical difficulties, as should Ynys Mon). Referring to the number of Welsh speakers is itself an attempt at a Plaid Cymru gerrymander – it's the old game of picking the census metric that corresponds to your voters and asserting that it's somehow important in itself. It's the same group of "gæth fæch wrth y tæn" Mid Walian dialects of Welsh in those two counties in any event. And I would far rather see a Wales in which the Welsh language was something that everyone was proud of rather than drawing ever-shrinking Gaeltachtaí. When all is said and done, a farmer from outside Bala has a lot more in common with a farmer from outside Welshpool than they do with someone from Caernarfon. |
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Post by Penddu on May 26, 2020 16:29:29 GMT
The only way to carve up Wales is to start at the 4 corners and work in. It all works easily except for Port Talbot and northern Powys I'm surprised that those areas give you grief. If you play it completely straight, those areas are fine. If you're getting problems in those places, you've probably chosen to mediate other areas' problems through them. 1) Why northern Powys isn't difficult:Clwyd, Gwynedd, and Montgomeryshire are nearly exactly entitled to 8 seats. So let's start in the corner, as you say. Flintshire and Wrexham are a good fit for 3 seats. To get this to work, Delyn needs to add Buckley and Ewloe from Alyn and Deeside, and then Alyn and Deeside needs to take all of those villages north-west of Wrexham town from Llay to Minera. Delyn 68686 Yes Alyn and Deeside 69130 Yes Wrexham 71002 Yes Denbighshire only needs to lose a couple of wards to Conwy to have a single nice constituency covering most of the County. Because I dislike Rhyl, I have chosen Rhyl West and Rhyl South West (but obviously you can choose any combination of wards along the western border). Then Llandudno needs to go into the Clwyd West half of Conwy. Vale of Clwyd 66966 Yes Clwyd West 67581 Yes Montgomeryshire and the Meirionnydd District of Gwynedd council are then within quota. Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 70201 Yes This then leaves Anglesey, the Dwyfor and Arfon Districts of Gwynedd, and Aberconwy (less Llandudno) easily within quota for two seats. There are a couple of ways of drawing this. The obvious one is to add an area around Bangor to Anglesey and to have a landward semi-doughnut. Alternatively (as I have drawn), you can have a pleasing Conwy and Arfon seat and just accept that with islands and remote sparsely populated peninsulas you sometimes get discontiguous constituencies – after all, no-one's stopping whatever the WDA is now called from pissing our money up the wall on a Nefyn to Holyhead ferry. Conwy and Arfon 67339 Yes Anglesey and Dwyfor 67210 Yes Of course, if you want to reject both options in the north west that a tidy Clwyd leaves you with, then you could well end up mediating that choice all the way round to Montgomeryshire... 2) why Port Talbot isn't difficultTo be continued, as apparently I have reached the attachment limit... Uhh..you have just come up with an equally horrible solution to North Powys. Everyone recognises that Powys has to be split - it is just a matter of where you draw its southern boundary is (keeping Montgomeryshire intact or not) - and whether you then join it to Southern Clwyd or Southern Gwynedd. Neither option is ideal. But any solution which joins Ynys Mon with Dwyfor is doomed to fail! |
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Post by Penddu on May 26, 2020 16:36:05 GMT
2) why Port Talbot isn't difficultWest Glamorgan is within quota for four seats. Neath can be easily brought up to quota by adding Briton Ferry and the Afan Valley. Gower similarly is easy – you just reunite Mumbles by adding the Mayals ward, and then pull in Dunvant and Killay. Swansea West then needs to gain a bit from Swansea East (limited options, because the useless, lazy local government commission drew ridiculous multi-member FPTP wards), and then finally Port Talbot can go in with Swansea East for a nice sensible constituency around Swansea Bay. Neath 67507 Yes Gower 68756 Yes Swansea West 66409 Yes Swansea East and Aberavon 67187 Yes Why I suspect you're struggling with this area is that Gwent is an easy six seats (1 seat in Monmouthshire, 1 in Torfaen, then 4 for the other three boroughs), and this leaves Radnorshire + Brecknockshire + Mid Glamorgan + South Glamorgan needing a Beacon-crossing monstrosity putting Aberdare into Brecon. So you've tried mediating the cross-boundary Powys-Mid Glamorgan seat through West Glamorgan to make it less awful. But you don't actually need to go that far, as you can simply swap the ex-Pontardawe RDC wards with the Aberdare ones between the Neath and Brecon constituencies – they have very similar-sized electorates. You can then keep Merthyr Tydfil + Mountain Ash, Rhondda + Pontypridd Town, and then add the remainder of the former Taff-Ely district to Cardiff, the Vale, and Bridgend for a workable 7 seats. You can avoid splitting Port Talbot by treating West Glamorgan as 4 seats. But that just causes problems in Dyfed and Mid-Glamorgan. I agree with moving Ystradgynlais area from Brecon to a Neath or Swansea Valley seat but it doesnt help much. But crossing the Beacons is geographical madness |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 26, 2020 18:12:08 GMT
I'm surprised that those areas give you grief. If you play it completely straight, those areas are fine. If you're getting problems in those places, you've probably chosen to mediate other areas' problems through them. 1) Why northern Powys isn't difficult:Clwyd, Gwynedd, and Montgomeryshire are nearly exactly entitled to 8 seats. So let's start in the corner, as you say. Flintshire and Wrexham are a good fit for 3 seats. To get this to work, Delyn needs to add Buckley and Ewloe from Alyn and Deeside, and then Alyn and Deeside needs to take all of those villages north-west of Wrexham town from Llay to Minera. Delyn 68686 Yes Alyn and Deeside 69130 Yes Wrexham 71002 Yes Denbighshire only needs to lose a couple of wards to Conwy to have a single nice constituency covering most of the County. Because I dislike Rhyl, I have chosen Rhyl West and Rhyl South West (but obviously you can choose any combination of wards along the western border). Then Llandudno needs to go into the Clwyd West half of Conwy. Vale of Clwyd 66966 Yes Clwyd West 67581 Yes Montgomeryshire and the Meirionnydd District of Gwynedd council are then within quota. Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 70201 Yes This then leaves Anglesey, the Dwyfor and Arfon Districts of Gwynedd, and Aberconwy (less Llandudno) easily within quota for two seats. There are a couple of ways of drawing this. The obvious one is to add an area around Bangor to Anglesey and to have a landward semi-doughnut. Alternatively (as I have drawn), you can have a pleasing Conwy and Arfon seat and just accept that with islands and remote sparsely populated peninsulas you sometimes get discontiguous constituencies – after all, no-one's stopping whatever the WDA is now called from pissing our money up the wall on a Nefyn to Holyhead ferry. Conwy and Arfon 67339 Yes Anglesey and Dwyfor 67210 Yes Of course, if you want to reject both options in the north west that a tidy Clwyd leaves you with, then you could well end up mediating that choice all the way round to Montgomeryshire... 2) why Port Talbot isn't difficultTo be continued, as apparently I have reached the attachment limit... Uhh..you have just come up with an equally horrible solution to North Powys. Everyone recognises that Powys has to be split - it is just a matter of where you draw its southern boundary is (keeping Montgomeryshire intact or not) - and whether you then join it to Southern Clwyd or Southern Gwynedd. Neither option is ideal. But any solution which joins Ynys Mon with Dwyfor is doomed to fail! I'm not sure how keeping the entire existing Montgomeryshire constituency intact and adding a single coherent district is "equally horrible". There's a material distinction here between acknowledging that Powys has always needed to comprise two seats (with one whole county to the north and two to the south) and ending up with parts of Powys in more than two seats and thus artificially disrupting Montgomeryshire in some Plaidimander. As I said, there are two ways of doing the North West corner that don't create widespread disruption. Anglesey+Bangor and a landward doughnut would probably be more likely. But Conwy and Arfon is a very cohesive seat that would also be an entertaining three-way marginal. And if we can accept putting all of the Scottish places that are a pain to get to into the Western Isles constituency (or our forced attempts to pretend to speak Gaelic), rather than having each island go with whichever place on the mainland Calmac sail to from there, then Anglesey and Dwyfor is not that ludicrous. Time to lobby for Ieuanhovercraft! |
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 18:25:22 GMT
I can see both sides of the argument. Anglesey + Dwyfor looks peculiar because, well, it is peculiar. And the Boundary Commission will be in for a bumpy ride if it tries it. But the resultant Bangor + District would be coherent and logical, and likely have more in common that any tie-up with the island.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 26, 2020 18:44:23 GMT
2) why Port Talbot isn't difficultWest Glamorgan is within quota for four seats. Neath can be easily brought up to quota by adding Briton Ferry and the Afan Valley. Gower similarly is easy – you just reunite Mumbles by adding the Mayals ward, and then pull in Dunvant and Killay. Swansea West then needs to gain a bit from Swansea East (limited options, because the useless, lazy local government commission drew ridiculous multi-member FPTP wards), and then finally Port Talbot can go in with Swansea East for a nice sensible constituency around Swansea Bay. Neath 67507 Yes Gower 68756 Yes Swansea West 66409 Yes Swansea East and Aberavon 67187 Yes Why I suspect you're struggling with this area is that Gwent is an easy six seats (1 seat in Monmouthshire, 1 in Torfaen, then 4 for the other three boroughs), and this leaves Radnorshire + Brecknockshire + Mid Glamorgan + South Glamorgan needing a Beacon-crossing monstrosity putting Aberdare into Brecon. So you've tried mediating the cross-boundary Powys-Mid Glamorgan seat through West Glamorgan to make it less awful. But you don't actually need to go that far, as you can simply swap the ex-Pontardawe RDC wards with the Aberdare ones between the Neath and Brecon constituencies – they have very similar-sized electorates. You can then keep Merthyr Tydfil + Mountain Ash, Rhondda + Pontypridd Town, and then add the remainder of the former Taff-Ely district to Cardiff, the Vale, and Bridgend for a workable 7 seats. You can avoid splitting Port Talbot by treating West Glamorgan as 4 seats. But that just causes problems in Dyfed and Mid-Glamorgan. I agree with moving Ystradgynlais area from Brecon to a Neath or Swansea Valley seat but it doesnt help much. But crossing the Beacons is geographical madness Problems in Dyfed?! You can even have two seats in Carmarthenshire and two in the other two counties. They're also helpfully on the small side on these numbers. I honestly don't know what you're trying to do that is causing you problems here. It's not even as if mediating anything through Dyfed is remotely helpful. I'm not sure why you think that if you move Pontardawe into Brecon, you immediately have to split Port Talbot. It's much tidier just to put Aberdare into Neath. This means that we directly solve the problem of the Cynon Valley being too big to go into Merthyr; Pontypridd town in its entirety can then go into Rhondda (it is the only all-weather exit to the Rhondda valleys after all); and then the remaining 7 constituencies are relatively easy: 1) the Ogmore constituency just needs to gain a few wards from Bridgend – I'd go for Penyfai (reuniting Newcastle Higher community in a single constituency), Pyle, and Cornelly (contiguous with Kenfig Hill) 2) the remainder of the Pontypridd constituency then more-or-less adds up with Cardiff for four seats – call the boundary-crosser Llantrisant and Llandaf (it's important to note here that maintining the Cardiff and Vale pairing results in either splitting Barry town or some weird constituency that includes parts of Cardiff and Bridgend) 3) Bridgend then takes the rural Vale 4) Barry, Dinas Powys, and Penarth then go into one constituency 5-7) you then draw the three obvious constituencies in Cardiff, pulling in Llandough ward from the Vale if needs be (we're close to the lower bound and we've got the Welsh local commission's unhelpful lazy multi-member FPTP wards as in Swansea) Insisting on splitting Port Talbot just then gives you a domino effect of needlessly trashing both Bridgend constituencies, having some awkward Rhondda constituency that takes in really disparate places, and so on. And even if you insist on that peculiar chain of dominoes, putting Maesteg into Neath is far less nasty than splitting Port Talbot. |
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Post by Penddu on May 26, 2020 19:00:17 GMT
Putting Maesteg into Neath is just bizarre. Probably easier to go from Ynys Mon to Dwyfor...
But I wont criticise what you have done without proposing an alternative. Give me a few days...
And I wont gerry mander anything - just stick to the rules.
Try and follow local authority boundaries where possible and respect natural geography (the Berwyns are a bitch).
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 26, 2020 19:56:33 GMT
Putting Maesteg into Neath is just bizarre. Probably easier to go from Ynys Mon to Dwyfor... But I wont criticise what you have done without proposing an alternative. Give me a few days... And I wont gerry mander anything - just stick to the rules. Try and follow local authority boundaries where possible and respect natural geography (the Berwyns are a bitch).The Berwyns are lovely !  |
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Post by matt84 on May 27, 2020 11:10:24 GMT
Some of those North Wales seats are pretty hard to stomach. Thank Ynys Mon Dwyfor would never see the light of day. I also think the idea of splitting Llandudno from Conwy town is one that would be avoided (especially as some part of Conwy Town Council's area are effectively suburbs of Llandudno and until the late 80s parts of this were actually in Llandudno itself). Splitting Rhyl in half is unfortunate and including wards like Uwchaled in a Llandudno and Colwyn Bay seat while not having areas like Glan Conwy in is odd.
I think an Ynys Mon/Bangor seat is by far the best option depending on numbers (but I guess numbers won't be vastly different from as proposed at the last review) and a Conwy/Llandudno/Colwyn Bay seat. The latter are a cohesive urban area and should have been in a seat together a long time ago - there were calls for a county boundary change to unite the area as far back as the 30s.
Then a Rhuddlan Borough/North Delyn seat. etc. etc.
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Post by Penddu on May 28, 2020 8:26:43 GMT
I have just worked this through in detail - Gwynedd, Clwyd & Montgomeryshire together equal 8 seats. Montgomeryshire is too small (0.69 quota) so needs to add around 0.3 of a seat from either South Clwyd or South Gwynedd. Neither is ideal but one or the other is unavoidable.
Taking the South Clwyd option, adding the Ruabon & Chirk areas from Wrexham and Dee Valley from Denbighshire would work. Other seats woukd then include Gwynedd (including Caernarfon but not Bangor); Ynys Mon & Bangor; Conwy (excluding Abergele); Denbighsire (with Abergele but excluding Prestatyn); North Flintshire (inc Prestatyn); South Flitshire; Wrexham. All achievable within the limits.
Taking the South Gwynedd option you would add Meirionydd to Montgomeryshire; Dwyfor to Arfon but this would cut off Ynys Mon.....it doesnt work. Alternatively you could construct a seat from Dwyfor, Caernarfon, rural Conwy but this would get very messy.
Montgomeryshire plus South Clwyd is only workable solution.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2020 8:33:25 GMT
I have just worked this through in detail - Gwynedd, Clwyd & Montgomeryshire together equal 8 seats. Montgomeryshire is too small (0.69 quota) so needs to add around 0.3 of a seat from either South Clwyd or South Gwynedd. Neither is ideal but one or the other is unavoidable. Taking the South Clwyd option, adding the Ruabon & Chirk areas from Wrexham and Dee Valley from Denbighshire would work. Other seats woukd then include Gwynedd (including Caernarfon but not Bangor); Ynys Mon & Bangor; Conwy (excluding Abergele); Denbighsire (with Abergele but excluding Prestatyn); North Flintshire (inc Prestatyn); South Flitshire; Wrexham. All achievable within the limits. Taking the South Gwynedd option you would add Meirionydd to Montgomeryshire; Dwyfor to Arfon but this would cut off Ynys Mon.....it doesnt work. Alternatively you could construct a seat from Dwyfor, Caernarfon, rural Conwy but this would get very messy. Montgomeryshire plus South Clwyd is only workable solution. Would you say then that these recommendations from the zombie review still hold up?  |
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Post by Penddu on May 28, 2020 8:37:00 GMT
South West Wales splits nicely into 8 seats - 4 in Dyfed and 4 in West Glamorgan.
South Central and South East Wales (inc South Powys) - 16 seats - needs more work
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Post by Penddu on May 28, 2020 8:39:46 GMT
I have just worked this through in detail - Gwynedd, Clwyd & Montgomeryshire together equal 8 seats. Montgomeryshire is too small (0.69 quota) so needs to add around 0.3 of a seat from either South Clwyd or South Gwynedd. Neither is ideal but one or the other is unavoidable. Taking the South Clwyd option, adding the Ruabon & Chirk areas from Wrexham and Dee Valley from Denbighshire would work. Other seats woukd then include Gwynedd (including Caernarfon but not Bangor); Ynys Mon & Bangor; Conwy (excluding Abergele); Denbighsire (with Abergele but excluding Prestatyn); North Flintshire (inc Prestatyn); South Flitshire; Wrexham. All achievable within the limits. Taking the South Gwynedd option you would add Meirionydd to Montgomeryshire; Dwyfor to Arfon but this would cut off Ynys Mon.....it doesnt work. Alternatively you could construct a seat from Dwyfor, Caernarfon, rural Conwy but this would get very messy. Montgomeryshire plus South Clwyd is only workable solution. Would you say then that these recommendations from the zombie review still hold up? Only partially. These 8 seats include all of Powys, but exclude Machynlleth area which was moved to Ceredigion. In new version all of Montgomeryshire is kept intact with a smaller area of South Clwyd. The 32 seat option is easier. |
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2020 11:17:45 GMT
Cumbria is really, really hard. (Cross-County Seat) Morecambe and Westmorland 1. Penrith and The Lakes 2. Carlisle 3. Cumberland 4. West Cumrbia 5. Barrow and Furness    |
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Post by greenhert on May 28, 2020 11:20:22 GMT
South West Wales splits nicely into 8 seats - 4 in Dyfed and 4 in West Glamorgan. South Central and South East Wales (inc South Powys) - 16 seats - needs more work No need for any "South Powys" seat to cross over into Glamorgan or Gwent. Instead link most of Montgomeryshire with South Clwyd, awkward as that may be. Dyfed fits 4 seats by itself as does West Glamorgan. The main issue with Gwent's constituencies is how to split Newport-I ended up with "Caerphilly and Newport West". Mid Glamorgan is easy-link Merthyr Tydfil with Rhonda Cynon Taf (Rhymney can be linked with Blaenau Gwent, since Rhymney is in Gwent not Mid Glamorgan); this leads to a Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare constituency, an expanded Pontypridd constituency and a modified Rhondda constituency which fits perfectly. |
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Post by greenhert on May 28, 2020 11:33:01 GMT
Morecambe & Lonsdale would be far better than Morecambe & Westmorland, believe me. Penrith can instead be linked with Cockermouth as it was from 1918-1950.
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