New Zealand General Election 2020

[Pete Whitehead]

Since there are several other posts on the same page with the same kind of configuration of percentages, the context would be pretty obvious to anyone following the thread or even anyone who hadn't been but who took the minor trouble to scroll up a few posts..

[timmullen1]

Sept 20, 2020 17:17:18 GMT cogload said:

The Auckland Central poll is from a pollster whose numbers favour Labour and health warnings have to be sounded about the sample size.

Still a timely boost just as National launched their campaign...

If I was looking at an upset...one of the Hamilton seats maybe...

I think there’s a lot about the poll that sounds largely right: Labour undoubtedly ahead nationally, a long-term incumbent retiring, one of only two non-Labour holders of the seat who’s seen a swing to Labour at each of the last three elections.

[johnloony]

Opportunities 83%
Labour 75%
National 74%
Green 74%
ACT 68%
NZF 47%
New Con 36%

[timmullen1]

Latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll shows Labour still on course for majority government:

Seat breakdown:

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 22, 2020 21:34:12 GMT timmullen1 said:

Latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll shows Labour still on course for majority government:

That graphic is well confusing. It makes it look like Labour have less/fewer/whatever than National, and NZF are out in front.

Who did their charts? Cowley Street?

[timmullen1]

Sept 22, 2020 22:07:29 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Sept 22, 2020 21:34:12 GMT timmullen1 said:

Latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll shows Labour still on course for majority government:

That graphic is well confusing. It makes it look like Labour have less/fewer/whatever than National, and NZF are out in front.

Who did their charts? Cowley Street?

The lady is the political editor of 1 News, so presumably their graphics department. I think we sometimes forget how much bigger the budget for election coverage here is; Antony Green of the ABC regularly expresses his jealousy at the BBC’s graphics on election night coverage.

[Toylyyev]

newzealand.isidewith.com yields:

           Labour Party 90%
            Green Party 90%
The Opportunities Party 87%
         National Party 74%
      New Zealand First 70%
                    ACT 48%

No New Conservatives result for me... on a ballot 56% complete.


Edit: (26/09) Another unsuccessful attempt to obtain a New Con result, but 67% complete this time, and a very similar result:

           Labour Party 90%
            Green Party 89%
The Opportunities Party 88%
         National Party 74%
      New Zealand First 71%
                    ACT 50%

[Tony Otim]

Green Party 93%
Labour Party 88%
Opportunities Party 87%
New Zealand First 65%
National Party 58%
ACT 43%
New Conservatives 16%

[greenhert]

On that same quiz I received:

Green Party 86%
The Opportunities Party 85%
Labour Party 77%
New Zealand First 66%
National Party 45%
ACT 27%
New Conservatives 16%

[cogload]

My mole in the Hamilton Labour party is trying to "encourage the buggers to vote" in his parlance at the moment. He is of th opinion that Labour's GOTV operation is "shambolic".

Anyway a couple of recent polls are:

Colmar:
Labour 47
National 32
Act 8
Greens 6

And

Latest UMR Poll
Labour 50
National 29
act 7
Greens 6
NZ First 2.7

He reckons there is one more poll (Reid) and that will be it before polling purdah strikes. The latter will be ideal - Labour majority, Greens in Parliament for Arden as it will give her a cushion for 3 years time. Anecdotally there is chat about Labour voters switching their party vote to Green in order for them to get over the threshold,

[cogload]

The final poll:

Last poll results
Labour 46
National 31
Act 8
Greens 8
NZ First 3

[The Bishop]

If accurate, smells a bit of some Labour supporters "lending" their vote to the Greens to ensure they stay in parliament.

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 15, 2020 11:35:17 GMT The Bishop said:

If accurate, smells a bit of some Labour supporters "lending" their vote to the Greens to ensure they stay in parliament.

Like the CDU/FDP in Germany?
When the CDU had the votes to spare, of course.

[mondialito]

That ACT figure may be a bit too high for National's liking.

[timrollpickering]

Oct 15, 2020 11:35:17 GMT The Bishop said:

If accurate, smells a bit of some Labour supporters "lending" their vote to the Greens to ensure they stay in parliament.

Depends which way you view them in the first place.

New Zealand does both votes on a single ballot paper and there have been some information counts that show the combinations of votes (which often expose just how dependent certain parties are on others to win an electorate). One finding in the past is that Green list voters are more likely to vote Labour than Green in electorates. This is pretty consistent with the global pattern of Green voters being especially keen followers of politics and likely to engage in split or tactical voting.

There also seems to be a mode in the NZ electorate opposed to a single party having a majority and you sometimes see parties around or above 50% in the polls suddenly falling back with third parties gaining as though campaigns against single party majority government have had an effect.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 15, 2020 12:04:07 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Oct 15, 2020 11:35:17 GMT The Bishop said:

If accurate, smells a bit of some Labour supporters "lending" their vote to the Greens to ensure they stay in parliament.

Like the CDU/FDP in Germany?
When the CDU had the votes to spare, of course.

They were the days. When poor old Guido could go around singing "Achtzehn Prozent" to the tune of YMCA.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 15, 2020 12:23:34 GMT mondialito said:

That ACT figure may be a bit too high for National's liking.

It's also quite astounding. When did they last poll that high? From a quick glance, their highest showing in a general ection was 7.14 per cent in 2002.

Does anyone know the reason behind it?

[timmullen1]

Oct 15, 2020 17:53:25 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Oct 15, 2020 12:23:34 GMT mondialito said:

That ACT figure may be a bit too high for National's liking.

It's also quite astounding. When did they last poll that high? From a quick glance, their highest showing in a general ection was 7.14 per cent in 2002.

Does anyone know the reason behind it?

There seems to be a few reasons; NZ First voters unhappy with the decision to go into coalition with Labour but not prepared to go over to National; the comparative weakness of National has allowed ACT more of the centre-right/right spotlight; a protest vote from National voters resigned to their Party’s defeat; ACT have introduced legislation to allow assisted dying which is being put to a referendum at the same time as the election and looks like passing; and, possibly most significantly, they’re Covid sceptical opposing lockdowns, supporting reopening borders and putting a higher priority on protecting the economy than preventing spread of the disease amongst anyone other than the elderly and health vulnerable.

[Merseymike]

Interesting that ACT appear to be much more of a genuinely libertarian party rather than populist.

[timmullen1]

Oct 15, 2020 18:44:20 GMT Merseymike said:

Interesting that ACT appear to be much more of a genuinely libertarian party rather than populist.

I forgot to mention they also oppose the 2019 ban on semi automatic weapons.