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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 13, 2020 14:16:30 GMT
Corrected Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 +100 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable + 7 7 +106 113 + 69 182 |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 13, 2020 14:17:17 GMT
Any moment we may know but it looks quite possible that the redistribution of the green vote might just put the SNP in front at stage 4? PS and moments later we know not the case! Even if it had happened, the LD transfers would have reversed it, I'm reasonably sure... I'm pretty sure you would have been right. Now I'm wondering though whether the redistibuted LD votes will be enough to get him over the quota? |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 13, 2020 14:18:22 GMT
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 + 10 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable + 7 7 +113 120 +182 302
Well, we're out, but it's still one hell of an improvement on last time. Could well be good enough for one seat from the next full election. There is a discrepancy of 7 in the total number of transfers at stage 3, 23 at stage 4, and 90 in the addition at stage 4. I hope that the erroneous figures have come from transcription by other people and not from the people doing the count itself. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 13, 2020 14:24:33 GMT
Final Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019 +116 1,135
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 - -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 +100 1,117 +347 1,464
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881 -881 -
Not transferrable + 7 7 +106 113 + 69 182 +418 600 |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 13, 2020 14:24:56 GMT
Even if it had happened, the LD transfers would have reversed it, I'm reasonably sure... I'm pretty sure you would have been right. Now I'm wondering though whether the redistibuted LD votes will be enough to get him over the quota? Probably not, I would think... |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 13, 2020 14:25:24 GMT
Corrected Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 +100 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable + 7 7 +106 113 + 69 182 Correction noted! Where are you getting the figures from? i.e. did an intermediary booliak transcribe the numbers wrongly and/or misunderstand them? Or was it the count itself? |
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Post by listener on Mar 13, 2020 14:26:42 GMT
I am sure the discrepancies arise from transcription by other people.
The transfers at stage 3 should include 69 not transferable, making a total of 182 carried forward.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 13, 2020 14:29:52 GMT
Final stage figures:
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Post by johnloony on Mar 13, 2020 14:31:01 GMT
Historian psephologists reading this thread in the future will have to disentangle the overlapping synchrography of people updating at the same time as each other  |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Mar 13, 2020 14:58:40 GMT
Corrected Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 +100 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable + 7 7 +106 113 + 69 182 Correction noted! Where are you getting the figures from? i.e. did an intermediary booliak transcribe the numbers wrongly and/or misunderstand them? Or was it the count itself? It looks very much like as if an intermediary was left to insert the calculations, and then misinterpreted at least some of the figures they were given. In particular, on the uncorrected figures, the intermediary was fairly obviously handed the cumulative total non-transfer figure at each stage, but interpreted it each time as the figure for new non-transfers - meaning that while the overall total for all candidates plus non-transfers should have remained the same throughout, by stage IV, the new transfers after stage I were being triple-counted and the new transfers after stage II double-counted, giving a total that was 120 too high. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 13, 2020 15:30:48 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 13, 2020 17:06:58 GMT
Wiltshire, Till & Wylye Valley - Conservative hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Conservative | 637 | 49.6% | -4.6% | +9.9% | +13.1% | Liberal Democrat | 623 | 48.5% | +4.4% | -6.6% | -7.5% | Labour | 24 | 1.9% | +0.2% | -3.3% | from nowhere | BNP |
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| -7.4% | Total votes | 1,284 |
| 61% | 79% | 68% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 4½% since 2017 but Liberal Democrat to Conservative 8¼% since 2013 and 10¼% since 2009 Council now 63 Conservative, 21 Liberal Democrat, 10 Independent, 3 Labour, 1 Vacant Ashford, Park Farm North - Ashford Independent gain from Conservative| Party | 2020 votes | 2020 votes | since 2019 | | Ashford Independent | 247 | 60.2% | from nowhere | Conservative | 115 | 28.0% | -33.4% | Labour | 29 | 7.1% | -12.8% | Green | 11 | 2.7% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 8 | 2.0% | -16.7% | Total votes | 410 |
| 84% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 25 Conservative, 12 Ashford Independent, 7 Labour, 2 Green, 1 Independent Highlands, Eilean a' Cheo - Independent hold based on first preference votes | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2009 | | Independent Munro | 911 | 28.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | SNP | 874 | 27.3% | +8.6% | +4.1% | +12.5% | Liberal Democrat | 698 | 21.8% | +19.9% | +3.9% | +0.6% | Green | 357 | 11.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 314 | 9.8% | +3.4% | +7.3% | +5.9% | No Description Misneachd | 45 | 1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Finlayson |
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| -29.0% |
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| Independent McDonald |
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| -14.3% |
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| Independent Gordon |
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| -9.1% | -26.6% |
| Other Independents |
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| -18.6% | -25.2% | -52.3% | Labour |
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| -2.0% | -4.4% | -7.8% | Total votes | 3,199 |
| 64% | 90% | 71% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 27 Independent, 21 SNP, 11 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Localist, 1 Non-aligned South Somerset, Parrett - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2019 | | Liberal Democrat | 387 | 52.0% | -12.5% | Conservative | 162 | 21.8% | -13.7% | Independent Ashton | 160 | 21.5% | from nowhere | Green | 35 | 4.7% | from nowhere | Total votes | 744 |
| 84% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ ½% since May Council now 40 Liberal Democrat, 15 Conservative, 5 Independent Stratford-on-Avon, Welford-on-Avon - Liberal Democrat gain from Independent (who was a Liberal Democrat some time ago)| Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | | Liberal Democrat | 472 | 43.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 323 | 29.9% | +8.7% | -17.1% | Independent Appleton | 231 | 21.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 41 | 3.8% | -1.5% | -1.9% | Green | 15 | 1.4% | -7.1% | from nowhere | Independent Barnes |
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| -65.1% | -47.4% | Total votes | 1,082 |
| 79% | 53% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 19 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent, 1 Green
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 13, 2020 19:01:15 GMT
Final Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019 +116 1,135
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 - -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 +100 1,117 +347 1,464
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881 -881 -
Not transferrable + 7 7 +106 113 + 69 182 +418 600 Isn't there some superfluous further round or is that only when the machines do it? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2020 19:13:39 GMT
Not that I had high hopes, but the Highland result is a bit shite for us. It’s Skye though, so I suppose whacky, unpredictable results are to be expected.
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 13, 2020 19:17:22 GMT
Not that I had high hopes, but the Highland result is a bit shite for us. It’s Skye though, so I suppose whacky, unpredictable results are to be expected. Our candidate was young and lived in Kyle of Lochalsh, I think both hurt him quite heavily. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2020 19:22:36 GMT
Not that I had high hopes, but the Highland result is a bit shite for us. It’s Skye though, so I suppose whacky, unpredictable results are to be expected. Our candidate was young and lived in Kyle of Lochalsh, I think both hurt him quite heavily. Could he not have pitched a tent on the other side of the bridge for the duration of the campaign?  |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 13, 2020 19:52:18 GMT
Not that I had high hopes, but the Highland result is a bit shite for us. It’s Skye though, so I suppose whacky, unpredictable results are to be expected. Our candidate was young and lived in Kyle of Lochalsh, I think both hurt him quite heavily. I'm not sure that Kyle would have hurt him that much, after all Kyle used to be in a ward with part of Skye. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 13, 2020 20:23:35 GMT
Our candidate was young and lived in Kyle of Lochalsh, I think both hurt him quite heavily. I'm not sure that Kyle would have hurt him that much, after all Kyle used to be in a ward with part of Skye. It might not have hurt him in Kyleakin, but in the more distant parts of the island it will have had an impact. And while no candidate can be local to everywhere on Skye, being from off the island, even if just barely, is likely to have a psychological impact. |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 13, 2020 20:42:54 GMT
I'm not sure that Kyle would have hurt him that much, after all Kyle used to be in a ward with part of Skye. It might not have hurt him in Kyleakin, but in the more distant parts of the island it will have had an impact. And while no candidate can be local to everywhere on Skye, being from off the island, even if just barely, is likely to have a psychological impact. My half brothers' family come from Skye and I suspect psychologically the existence of the bridge has never been accepted.. |
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Post by phil156 on Mar 13, 2020 21:11:28 GMT
I wonder what will happen to the pending by-elections under the 6 moth rule now that the May elections are cancelled, it will mean that wards where Councillors have resigned of died waiting over 12 months got somebody to represent them!
If anybody knows let us know please
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