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Post by yellowperil on Mar 13, 2020 12:29:27 GMT
I wonder how many more council byelections we will get to analyse before everything electoral goes into coronavirus "suspended animation"? Yes, i am quite surprised they did not postpone the local elections yesterday.. yet turnouts were not particularly low in any of them, so voters were not particularly put off, though I haven't looked at how many of those were PVs. But aroung 80% of last year, where that was relevant, would be about what you might expect, if anything a bit better than that. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 13, 2020 12:39:02 GMT
I wonder how many more council byelections we will get to analyse before everything electoral goes into coronavirus "suspended animation"? Some clown - I know not whom - has called the Crewe West (Cheshire East) by-election for April 23rd. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 13, 2020 13:14:08 GMT
Independent (Munro) ahead after stage one with 911 votes. SNP 874, LD 698, Grn 357, Con 314, ND 45. Quota is 1600.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 13, 2020 13:26:53 GMT
After stage 2 (ND eliminated), Indy still ahead of SNP, LD, Grn, Con in that order. Con to be eliminated next.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 13, 2020 13:41:37 GMT
Stage 3 and it's Indy 1,017, SNP 889, LD 801, Grn 379. Green next to go. LD did best out of the Tory redistribition, the SNP and Greens did very poorly. Where will the Green vote go?
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iang
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Post by iang on Mar 13, 2020 13:41:55 GMT
Whatever the final outcome of this result, this week (Ashford excepted) seems to have been a pretty good one for us, after a few rather disappointing results in previous weeks
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 13, 2020 13:47:33 GMT
Stage 3 and it's Indy 1,017, SNP 889, LD 801, Grn 379. Green next to go. LD did best out of the Tory redistribition, the SNP and Greens did very poorly. Where will the Green vote go? Either way, it's hard to see LDs or SNP favouring each other over the indy, so the indy's got this... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 13, 2020 13:48:03 GMT
So far. Quota 1,600 Stage I Stage II Stage III
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801
Not transferrable + 7 7 +106 113 |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 13, 2020 13:50:20 GMT
Stage 3 and it's Indy 1,017, SNP 889, LD 801, Grn 379. Green next to go. LD did best out of the Tory redistribition, the SNP and Greens did very poorly. Where will the Green vote go? So the elimination of the ND and the Con had benefitted Munroe, SNP and LD in nearly equal measures, but marginally the SNP most? |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 13, 2020 13:51:16 GMT
Stage 3 and it's Indy 1,017, SNP 889, LD 801, Grn 379. Green next to go. LD did best out of the Tory redistribition, the SNP and Greens did very poorly. Where will the Green vote go? Either way, it's hard to see LDs or SNP favouring each other over the indy, so the indy's got this... I suspect you're right, but both will be keen to get second-place bragging rights. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 13, 2020 13:51:43 GMT
Stage 3 and it's Indy 1,017, SNP 889, LD 801, Grn 379. Green next to go. LD did best out of the Tory redistribition, the SNP and Greens did very poorly. Where will the Green vote go? Either way, it's hard to see LDs or SNP favouring each other over the indy, so the indy's got this... Be surprising if he doesn’t win. Although most of us in the prediction comp thought he would do a lot better than he did on first preferences. |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 13, 2020 13:59:10 GMT
Yes, i am quite surprised they did not postpone the local elections yesterday.. yet turnouts were not particularly low in any of them, so voters were not particularly put off, though I haven't looked at how many of those were PVs. But aroung 80% of last year, where that was relevant, would be about what you might expect, if anything a bit better than that. I meant cancel the May 7th elections in the cobra meeting not yesterday's elections, which may not have been clear! People will really start worrying when they know someone who has got it.. (or god forbid, died from it...) However I think the May 7th elections could be very hard to run for councils that are short staffed already. Not that they are really risky. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 13, 2020 14:02:14 GMT
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 + 10 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable + 7 7 +113 120 +182 302
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 13, 2020 14:02:29 GMT
Either way, it's hard to see LDs or SNP favouring each other over the indy, so the indy's got this... Be surprising if he doesn’t win. Although most of us in the prediction comp thought he would do a lot better than he did on first preferences. Any moment we may know but it looks quite possible that the redistribution of the green vote might just put the SNP in front at stage 4? PS and moments later we know not the case! |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 13, 2020 14:03:54 GMT
yet turnouts were not particularly low in any of them, so voters were not particularly put off, though I haven't looked at how many of those were PVs. But aroung 80% of last year, where that was relevant, would be about what you might expect, if anything a bit better than that. I meant cancel the May 7th elections in the cobra meeting not yesterday's elections, which may not have been clear! People will really start worrying when they know someone who has got it.. (or god forbid, died from it...) However I think the May 7th elections could be very hard to run for councils that are short staffed already. Not that they are really risky. I’m pretty confident they will be cancelled. I have been allocated a polling station to work as presiding officer in May. Since then the council that I work for has also asked whether any useful hidden skills ( eg caring or driving large vehicles) that they could use should they need to redeploy me generally, |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Mar 13, 2020 14:05:58 GMT
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 + 10 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable + 7 7 +113 120 +182 302
Is the Independent + 10 to 1027 or +100 to 1117 |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 13, 2020 14:07:08 GMT
Be surprising if he doesn’t win. Although most of us in the prediction comp thought he would do a lot better than he did on first preferences. Any moment we may know but it looks quite possible that the redistribution of the green vote might just put the SNP in front at stage 4? PS and moments later we know not the case! Even if it had happened, the LD transfers would have reversed it, I'm reasonably sure... |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 13, 2020 14:07:11 GMT
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 + 10 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable + 7 7 +113 120 +182 302
Well, we're out, but it's still one hell of an improvement on last time. Could well be good enough for one seat from the next full election. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 13, 2020 14:10:08 GMT
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 + 10 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable + 7 7 +113 120 +182 302
Is the Independent + 10 to 1027 or +100 to 1117 Either way the Maths is wrong, including nts, 10 would make it 402 votes out of 379 relocated, 100 would make it 492. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 13, 2020 14:12:12 GMT
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
KISS (SNP) 874 + 11 885 + 4 889 +130 1,019
KROONSTUIVER CAMPBELL (SGP) 357 + 10 367 + 12 379 -379 -
MISNEACHD 45 - 45 - - -
MUNRO (Ind) 911 + 16 927 + 90 1,017 + 10 1,117
STEWART (C) 314 + 1 315 -315 - -
THOMSON (L Dem) 698 698 +103 801 + 80 881
Not transferrable t + 7 7 +113 120 +182 302
Well, we're out, but it's still one hell of an improvement on last time. Could well be good enough for one seat from the next full election. It was a very good showing. Difficult to extrapolate to next time, when the other 2 incumbent indies who topped the poll last time may stand. |
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