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Post by andrew111 on Feb 28, 2020 9:28:09 GMT
South Cambs DC Con 526 LD 427 Apparently we've won the County seat pretty easily That is a very good result in the county seat (which only Middleenglander seems to have noticed!) with a big reduction in Tory % despite only two candidates standing |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 28, 2020 9:32:17 GMT
That’s a very good achievement for Ken Dobson. To get 1100 votes. Not many Independents win in very big city wards. Particularly as Manchester Labour have an excellent electoral record. And especially in a by-election where the Indy cannot bring in resources from elsewhere... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 28, 2020 9:37:52 GMT
Dobson seems to have been sending out regular leaflets, and holding open surgeries before a byelection was unexpectedly forced by the death of one of the councillors. With annual elections he was probably expecting to stand again in May.
Instead he slots in to the 2022 term. I wonder if he will find an ally to stand in May; if he doesn't, his electoral base may start returning to their old allegiances (but if he does, there's no guarantee a personal vote will transfer to a friend).
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 28, 2020 10:26:12 GMT
Its probably easier to win in a by election for an independent.
Also, with a council with little in the way of opposition, its not as if Labour can say 'vote for **** and you'll let the Tories in'
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 28, 2020 10:36:05 GMT
To be honest ( and I'm no fan of Labour ! ) , I'm surprised that Lucy Powell had the courtesy to reply to that message ! Fair play to her ... I entirely accept that point,especially as that must have been a pretty galling moment for her, but I think it illustrates the way in which some politicians, and I think it's usually Labour ones, are able to focus entirely on the battle between their party and "the enemy ". So for Labour that's usually the Tories, but sometimes the Lib Dems and in this rare case the Indy. It may be a useful attribute sometimes, but can lead to quite a narrow-minded understanding of what is going on, you might think justified in this case where it clearly it was very much a 2-way battle and the other 3 parties were almost completely wiped out. Nevertheless it is worth remarking that the three "minor parties"in this case, Conservative, Lib Dem and Green, between them still polled about twice the size of the eventual majority, so in a sense the result was still in their hands I suspect he meant "who won?" and she told him. And even congratulated the winner. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 28, 2020 10:37:09 GMT
Reports suggest that Labour may just have edged it in Clayton/Openshaw on the day (which may explain why they were confident of winning) but lost it on postal votes. That almost certainly cost them several seats in the GE as well, and with postal votes becoming more prominent its something where the party needs to up its game.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 28, 2020 11:03:04 GMT
Reports suggest that Labour may just have edged it in Clayton/Openshaw on the day (which may explain why they were confident of winning) but lost it on postal votes. That almost certainly cost them several seats in the GE as well, and with postal votes becoming more prominent its something where the party needs to up its game. I find that a bit odd, in that one assumes they should have had a good idea how the postal votes looked when they were opened and have had a reasonable idea of how much they had to do to overcome a pv deficit. Seems to suggest a certain naivety on the part of some of the Labour workers, who presumably may not have had that much experience of losing. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 28, 2020 11:15:02 GMT
So the Labour vote was down this month in every ward they contested, apart from Whaley Bridge and Yoxall (East Staffordshire). Vote share is not *always* the most reliable indicator when by-elections can be contested by several more parties/candidates than before. There were pro-Labour swings in a few other contests (notably Blaby yesterday) |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 28, 2020 11:16:34 GMT
I entirely accept that point,especially as that must have been a pretty galling moment for her, but I think it illustrates the way in which some politicians, and I think it's usually Labour ones, are able to focus entirely on the battle between their party and "the enemy ". So for Labour that's usually the Tories, but sometimes the Lib Dems and in this rare case the Indy. It may be a useful attribute sometimes, but can lead to quite a narrow-minded understanding of what is going on, you might think justified in this case where it clearly it was very much a 2-way battle and the other 3 parties were almost completely wiped out. Nevertheless it is worth remarking that the three "minor parties"in this case, Conservative, Lib Dem and Green, between them still polled about twice the size of the eventual majority, so in a sense the result was still in their hands I suspect he meant "who won?" and she told him. And even congratulated the winner. This may be pressing this email exchange in the heat of the results coming out for more than its worth, but if you observe there were two posts from Lucy - the first including giving the winner , majority and offering congratulations, and then the second in response to the request for "full results" which gave the numbers for winner and runnerup but ignored the minor players. It was this second post I was commenting on, not really in a hostile way, more a comment on a rather different attitude to the results than from us dedicated psephologists. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 28, 2020 11:23:52 GMT
Just noticed the UKIP result in Hillingdon - it must really be time to wrap it up now. That's the same number of votes we got in Clarence in a 2016 by-election but this is a larger ward and an area of considerable 'natural' UKIP strength. It's a fantastic result for the Tories in what is hardly a salubrious area and has never been close to being a stronghold Yes, the stand out result for the Tories in what was a generally underwhelming set for them by recent standards. Though the LibDem score in a ward they could win pre-coalition is surely also notable. |
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Post by owainsutton on Feb 28, 2020 12:17:55 GMT
Also, with a council with little in the way of opposition, its not as if Labour can say 'vote for **** and you'll let the Tories in' As if that stops them from doing so. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 28, 2020 12:53:51 GMT
South Cambs DC Con 526 LD 427 Apparently we've won the County seat pretty easily That is a very good result in the county seat (which only Middleenglander seems to have noticed!) with a big reduction in Tory % despite only two candidates standing Good Lib Dem candidate. South Cheshire Young Liberals rule ! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 28, 2020 12:55:15 GMT
Also, with a council with little in the way of opposition, its not as if Labour can say 'vote for **** and you'll let the Tories in' As if that stops them from doing so. I think the word missing from the previous post was "credibly"  |
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Post by peterski on Feb 28, 2020 15:33:00 GMT
Manchester excepted a moderately encouraging set of results for LAB. Some tentative evidence that a corner is being turned with the wins in Blaby and Crewe . With a new leader in place soon LAB can anticipate a reasonable set of local elections in May . A COVID-19 crisis will highlight the decade long underfunding of the NHS and the inevitable massive incompetence of the Johnson junta.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Feb 28, 2020 15:39:13 GMT
Dobson seems to have been sending out regular leaflets, and holding open surgeries before a byelection was unexpectedly forced by the death of one of the councillors. With annual elections he was probably expecting to stand again in May. Instead he slots in to the 2022 term. I wonder if he will find an ally to stand in May; if he doesn't, his electoral base may start returning to their old allegiances (but if he does, there's no guarantee a personal vote will transfer to a friend). He was knocking on doors literally the day after the election last May but it does seem to be just him rather than a mate he might run as well. If he sits alone or with Leech's outfit will be interesting. I think he's better off hanging on until May to see if there's a Green elected somewhere he can align with in a technical group and thus get committee places but the obvious choice is to sit with the Lib Dems and a number of Labour councillors seem to think that's what he'll do. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 28, 2020 16:12:04 GMT
It really is quite incredible that an independent has won this. Clayton & Openshaw are so obviously Manc Labour territory. Dobson really has carried off something impressive.
It goes to show how useless and badly-executed Tory efforts in Brooklands down the years have been.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 28, 2020 16:17:52 GMT
Manchester excepted a moderately encouraging set of results for LAB. Some tentative evidence that a corner is being turned with the wins in Blaby and Crewe . With a new leader in place soon LAB can anticipate a reasonable set of local elections in May . A COVID-19 crisis will highlight the decade long underfunding of the NHS and the inevitable massive incompetence of the Johnson junta. It would have pretty weird for Labour not to have won Crewe South. Have you been? It's extremely deprived. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 28, 2020 17:05:48 GMT
Manchester excepted a moderately encouraging set of results for LAB. Some tentative evidence that a corner is being turned with the wins in Blaby and Crewe . With a new leader in place soon LAB can anticipate a reasonable set of local elections in May . A COVID-19 crisis will highlight the decade long underfunding of the NHS and the inevitable massive incompetence of the Johnson junta. It would have pretty weird for Labour not to have won Crewe South. Have you been? It's extremely deprived. Well, I don't think I'd go quite that far. Try googling streetview for Danebank Avenue (and the thoroughfares which branch from it) or Manor Way. Happy to accept there's deprivation in some of the social housing areas (I've leafleted Claughton Avenue) and that the terraced areas aren't what they were when I was growing up in the ward. (The previous incarnation of Crewe South - albeit with different boundaries was Lib Dem 2004-5 and 2008-2011) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 28, 2020 17:50:10 GMT
It would have pretty weird for Labour not to have won Crewe South. Have you been? It's extremely deprived. Well, I don't think I'd go quite that far. Try googling streetview for Danebank Avenue (and the thoroughfares which branch from it) or Manor Way. Happy to accept there's deprivation in some of the social housing areas (I've leafleted Claughton Avenue) and that the terraced areas aren't what they were when I was growing up in the ward. (The previous incarnation of Crewe South - albeit with different boundaries was Lib Dem 2004-5 and 2008-2011) It is one of the most deprived parts of Cheshire East, though. I know you know the area better, but those two main Crewe wards are very sad places. The first time I went was for the football, and I was surprised by the state of the houses down Gresty Road. When I was working in Nantwich, I sometimes stayed over at the Crewe Arms and went for a wander once - I thought there were areas of Crewe that seemed more deprived than in Wythenshawe, for example. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 28, 2020 17:53:22 GMT
Well, I don't think I'd go quite that far. Try googling streetview for Danebank Avenue (and the thoroughfares which branch from it) or Manor Way. Happy to accept there's deprivation in some of the social housing areas (I've leafleted Claughton Avenue) and that the terraced areas aren't what they were when I was growing up in the ward. (The previous incarnation of Crewe South - albeit with different boundaries was Lib Dem 2004-5 and 2008-2011) It is one of the most deprived parts of Cheshire East, though. I know you know the area better, but those two main Crewe wards are very sad places. The first time I went was for the football, and I was surprised by the state of the houses down Gresty Road. When I was working in Nantwich, I sometimes stayed over at the Crewe Arms and went for a wander once - I thought there were areas of Crewe that seemed more deprived than in Wythenshawe, for example. Buy to let has done immense harm to the older parts of Crewe. |
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