|
|
Post by lbarnes on Jan 24, 2020 9:22:33 GMT
Prediction Competition - January 2020 yesterday at 12:20am
Post by David Boothroyd on yesterday at 12:20am
BRENT Alperton: Lab 47, C 29, L Dem 18, GP 6
Holy shit.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 24, 2020 9:40:41 GMT
I beat you by 41.1 points on that prediction, so stuff that in your pipe and smoke it.
|
|
|
|
Post by lbarnes on Jan 24, 2020 9:50:17 GMT
I beat you by 41.1 points on that prediction, so stuff that in your pipe and smoke it. Never has a chicken's entrails been so wasted. |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 24, 2020 10:27:10 GMT
Happy to be on the scoreboard for the first time this year, to be honest. We clearly threw everything at Alperton and didn't worry about the other two wards. But Labour slipped back in those as well, albeit with the Tories in second. Up to them how seriously they take it, of course.
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Jan 24, 2020 10:57:33 GMT
Brent, Alperton - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 1,699 | 39.7% | +29.5% | +30.7% | +5.9% | +5.7% | Labour | 1,304 | 30.5% | -25.6% | -27.7% | -16.9% | -17.9% | Conservative | 900 | 21.0% | -2.5% | -1.0% | +8.8% | +10.2% | Green | 373 | 8.7% | -1.4% | -2.1% | +2.2% | +2.0% | Total votes | 4,276 |
| 75% | 80% | 86% | 89% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 27½% / 29¼% since 2018 and 11½% / 11¾% since 2014 Council now 59 Labour, 3 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat Brent, Barnhill - 2 Labour hold | Party | 2020 votes
first | 2020 votes
second
| 2020 votes
total | 2020 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Labour | 1,194 | 1,152 | 2,346 | 46.5% | -17.3% | -17.5% | -6.1% | -7.4% | Conservative | 1,082 | 1,018 | 2,100 | 41.7% | +16.5% | +16.4% | +15.4% | +15.9% | Green | 231 | 171 | 402 | 8.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -0.6% | -0.9% | Liberal Democrat | 118 | 76 | 194 | 3.8% | -3.8% | -3.6% | -5.2% | -3.9% | Independent |
|
|
|
| -3.3% | -3.4% | -3.6% | -3.7% | Total votes | 2,625 | 2,417 | 5,042 |
| 67% | 67% | 65% | 67% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 17% since 2018 and 10¾% / 11½% since 2014 Council now 59 Labour, 3 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat Brent, Wembley Central - Labour hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | Labour | 1,945 | 54.5% | -11.8% | -13.2% | +6.2% | +6.8% | Conservative | 1,090 | 30.6% | +14.7% | +14.3% | +19.2% | +19.3% | Liberal Democrat | 378 | 10.6% | -0.6% | +1.5% | -23.5% | -23.7% | Green | 154 | 4.3% | -2.3% | -2.6% | -1.8% | -2.5% | Total votes | 3,567 |
| 74% | 77% | 77% | 86% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 13¼% / 13¾% since 2018 and, if particularly meaningful, 6½% / 6¼% since 2014 - although Liberal Democrat to Labour 14¾ / 15¼% since 2014 Council now 59 Labour, 3 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat Dumfries & Galloway, Mid Galloway & Wigtown West - Conservative hold - based on first preference votes | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 | | Conservative | 2,177 | 61.8% | +22.3% | SNP | 898 | 25.5% | +1.9% | Green | 225 | 6.4% | +4.2% | Labour | 220 | 6.3% | -0.6% | Elected Independent |
|
| -18.1% | Independent 2 |
|
| -8.8% | Independent 3 |
|
| -0.9% | Total votes | 3,520 |
| 65% |
Swing SNP to Conservative 10¼% since 2017 Council now 15 Conservative, 10 SNP, 9 Labour, 4 Independent, 2 Socialist, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Non-Aligned, 1 Non-Affiliated
|
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Jan 24, 2020 10:58:37 GMT
Dumfries and Galloway (according to their council's twitter):
Conservative 2,177 (61.8%)
SNP 898 (25.5%)
Green 225 (6.4%)
Labour 220 (6.3%)
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jan 24, 2020 11:09:14 GMT
I beat you by 41.1 points on that prediction, so stuff that in your pipe and smoke it. Never has a chicken's entrails been so wasted. I would advise against smoking chicken's entrails |
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Jan 24, 2020 11:51:13 GMT
Not sure it merits that. If you can't win a byelection when the previous councillor is done for defrauding some woman's life savings and the defending party's candidate is suspended for racist tweets, you really should give up. Granted that there were some pretty massive problems for the Labour candidate, but not sure that merits a "win or you really should give up" either. On the prediction comp we all had that down as a Labour hold even knowing the issues, and you had the LDs third on 18%, so maybe the mboy Holy Shit wasn't so totally unjustified after all?  It is not, of course, entirely without precedent for a disowned candidate to still win, even when their opponent starts from a rather more favourable position than here... |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2020 12:24:54 GMT
Dumfries and Galloway (according to their council's twitter): Conservative 2,177 (61.8%) SNP 898 (25.5%) Green 225 (6.4%) Labour 220 (6.3%) Conservative +22.3% in my ancestral homeland  What was that about by-election losses again Smartie? |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jan 24, 2020 12:43:57 GMT
Granted that there were some pretty massive problems for the Labour candidate, but not sure that merits a "win or you really should give up" either. On the prediction comp we all had that down as a Labour hold even knowing the issues, and you had the LDs third on 18%, so maybe the mboy Holy Shit wasn't so totally unjustified after all? It is not, of course, entirely without precedent for a disowned candidate to still win, even when their opponent starts from a rather more favourable position than here... Of course it does beg the question of whether said candidate retained the support of the Branch and/or the CLP, and how much effort they were prepared to put any effort into the campaign if not. It may be they concentrated on the other three defences rather than be lumbered with a discredited candidate who may not have ever been in a position to join the Group. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Jan 24, 2020 14:03:08 GMT
Dumfries and Galloway (according to their council's twitter): Conservative 2,177 (61.8%) SNP 898 (25.5%) Green 225 (6.4%) Labour 220 (6.3%) Conservative +22.3% in my ancestral homeland What was that about by-election losses again Smartie? Undoubtedly a very strong performance. It is, however, worth noting the absence of any independent candidate this time and also that the second preferences for the 3 indies last time broke quite favourably for the Tories, so you were maybe starting from a rather more favourable position than indicated and the result, whilst very strong, was perhaps not quite so spectacular as that vote share change might suggest. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2020 14:51:49 GMT
Dumfries and Galloway (according to their council's twitter): Conservative 2,177 (61.8%) SNP 898 (25.5%) Green 225 (6.4%) Labour 220 (6.3%) Another strong Tory result in Galloway, to add to their increased vote share in 2019. Along with Argyll and Banff this is an area that's only got better for the Tories since 2015. |
|
|
|
Post by phil156 on Jan 24, 2020 15:12:04 GMT
Does the SNP/lab council change in Dumfries and Galloway? Surely that can't carry on
|
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on Jan 24, 2020 15:23:24 GMT
Unless the government makes some serious errors of judgement in the next few weeks (events - e.g coronavirus) we should expect strong Tory performances in local elections for some time I suspect.
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Jan 24, 2020 15:36:55 GMT
Are Scottish by-elections still doing a Two Candidate Preference result or does that only happen with preferences/the RO forgetting to turn the computer off?
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
|
Post by Khunanup on Jan 24, 2020 16:01:40 GMT
Are Scottish by-elections still doing a Two Candidate Preference result or does that only happen with preferences/the RO forgetting to turn the computer off? I presume so. But unlike here you'd need a result where someone doesn't get 50+% of first preferences to know for sure... |
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on Jan 24, 2020 16:07:23 GMT
Obviously the best of the there for the local LDs to go for, but still a cheer-up result for London LDs after the shambles of the GE.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Jan 24, 2020 17:44:38 GMT
Does the SNP/lab council change in Dumfries and Galloway? Surely that can't carry on It's the same situation as before the vacancy arose, so I'm not sure why it wouldn't. I'd guess that enough of the various independents/non-affiliated groups back them when it matters to keep it going... |
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 24, 2020 18:23:44 GMT
Given the content of those tweets and the previous councillors activities I think Alperton could be a lucky escape. Barry Gardner needs to be on the case and get this sorted.If calling for Barry is the answer what on earth is the question ? |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jan 24, 2020 20:29:10 GMT
The Lib Dems had clearly made a very disciplined decision they were going all out on targetting Alperton and putting all their resources available into that target and minimal effort into the other two wards. One can understand why they did that- all 3 were very long shots on the basis of last time's results, and the bad general election result had been been made much worse than it needed to have been by not making precisely that sort of hard decision in the early stages. In the event, they had room to spare in Alperton, more or less held their vote share in Wembley , and halved their vote share in Barnhill. That fully vindicates the targetting strategy, but by hindsight would a little more effort diverted to Wembley have made all the difference there?
|
|
