Local council by-elections 23rd Jan 2020

[Tony Otim]

This week there's the unusual occurrence of 4 by-elections to the same authority:

BRENT LBC; Alperton (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
GEORGIOU, Anton (Liberal Democrat)
HARPALE, Chetan (Labour)
LINNIE, Andrew James Edward (Green)
VYAS, Harmit Anil (Conservative)

2018: Lab 3185, 3174, 2961; Con 1337, 1162, 1026; LD 582, 500, 362; Grn 577
2014: Lab 2370, 2309, 2305; LD 1691, 1669, 1553; Con 612, 506, 452; Grn 325
2010: LD 2608, 2599, 2115; Lab 2594, 2206, 1970; Con 970, 905, 830; Grn 266, 230, 190; Ind 123
2006: LD 1624, 1560, 1481; Lab 1126, 1061, 1033; Con 790, 699, 645; Grn 151
2002: LD 1623, 1553, 1522; Lab 991, 944, 857; Con 432, 392, 381

The Green candidate stood here in 2018. The Councillor who resigned was the 3rd LD elected in 2002 and 2006, topped the poll for the Lib Dems in 2010 and for Labour in 2014 and came second last time out.

Current Council: Lab 56; Con 3; 4 vacancies



BRENT LBC; Barnhill (double vacancy – 2xLab resigned)
Candidates:
AKRAM, Mansoor (Labour)
BROOKE, Michael David (Liberal Democrat)
FRANCIS, Martin Roger (Green)
LLOYD, Gaynor (Labour)
MISTRY, Kanta (Conservative)
MURRY, Peter Richard (Green)
NGAN, Larry (Liberal Democrat)
VOLOSENIUC, Stefan (Conservative)

2018: Lab 2411, 2408, 2403; Con 950, 947, 946; LD 290, 277, 271; Ind 126
2014: Lab 2055, 2010, 1988; Con 1023, 983, 911; LD 352, 233, 174; Grn 335; Ind 139
May 12by: Lab 2326; Con 1180; Grn 457; Ind 156
2010: Lab 2796, 2440, 2382; Con 2091, 1879, 1818; LD 987, 903, 799; Grn 421, 343, 310
2006: Con 1622, 1460, 1435; Lab 1012, 872, 851; LD 386, 386, 377; Grn 374
2002: Con 1591, 1518, 1501; Lab 894, 890, 860; LD 255, 244, 209; Grn 205

Martin Francis was the top Green here in 2010 and in the 2012 by-election. (BTW, I hate it when councils do this - democracy.brent.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=62&RPID=0 –it makes absolutely no sense).

Current Council: Lab 56; Con 3; 4 vacancies



BRENT LBC; Wembley Central (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
MADABHUSHI, Sai Karthik (Conservative)
PATEL, Jyotshna (Liberal Democrat)
RELTON, William Kent (Green)
SHAH, Sonia (Labour)

2018: Lab 3210,3187, 2996; Con 768, 755, 734; LD 540, 435, 288; Grn 318
2014: Lab 2228, 1990, 1726; LD 1571, 1400, 1300; Con 525, 470, 402; Grn 282
Dec 11by: Lab 1402; LD 1022; Con 349; Grn 130
2010: Lab 2649, 2352, 2277; LD 2122, 1977, 1917; Con 1119, 1092, 963; Grn 210, 174, 144
Jul 09by: LD 1195; Lab 934; Con 423; Ind 240; Grn 100
2006: LD 1824, 1738, 1709; Lab 1619, 1443, 1420; Con 480, 458, 383; Grn 185
2002: LD 1314, 1287, 1248; Lab 1194, 1068, 979; Con 591, 530, 491; Brent Residents & Motorists 255, 236; Soc All 59

The Lib Dem was the top-placed Lib Dem in 2018 and 2014. William Relton was the Green candidate for Brent Central in December.

Current Council: Lab 56; Con 3; 4 vacancies



DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY UA; Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Con died)
Candidates:
BERRETTI, Tony (SNP)
BARLOW, Peter Richard (Green)
HAY, Gill (Labour)
McCAMON, Jackie (Conservative)

2017: Con 1403, 723; Ind 976, 475, 48; SNP 701, 572; Lab 368; Grn 116

This is a new ward formed in 2017, taking in most of the old Mid Galloway ward and most of the old Wigtown West ward. Both had been split 1 SNP, 1 Con and 1 Ind in 2017, with the Indy and the Con from Mid Galloway being re-elected in the new ward. The Lib Dems had had a seat in Mid Galloway 2007, but didn’t even defend it in 2012 (gained by the indy). Labour had a seat in Wigtown West in 2007, but again lost it to an indy in 2012.

Current Council: Con 14; SNP 10; Lab 9; Ind Group* 4; D&G Socialist Group* 2; LD 1; Non-aligned* 1; Non-affiliated* 1

Ind Group = 3 elected as Independents and 1 ex-SNP
D&G Socialist Group = 1 elected with no description and 1 ex-Lab
Non Aligned = ex-Con
Non-affiliated= ex-Lab

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Martin Francis, in addition to being Green Party candidate in Barnhill (and a longstanding Brent Green Party activist), writes the Wembley Matters blog which is a good source for reporting and gossip on Brent issues: wembleymatters.blogspot.com/

[bjornhattan]

From what I've heard among my Lib Dem friends, Alperton is being ramped hard. Can't see it falling, myself, but don't be surprised if there's an amber surge.

[finsobruce]

Jan 13, 2020 12:32:34 GMT bjornhattan said:

From what I've heard among my Lib Dem friends, Alperton is being ramped hard. Can't see it falling, myself, but don't be surprised if there's an amber surge.

there are (comparatively) so many by elections on at the same time, that if a party targeted one ruthlessly they could well have a surge.

[bjornhattan]

Jan 13, 2020 12:49:54 GMT finsobruce said:

Jan 13, 2020 12:32:34 GMT bjornhattan said:

From what I've heard among my Lib Dem friends, Alperton is being ramped hard. Can't see it falling, myself, but don't be surprised if there's an amber surge.

there are (comparatively) so many by elections on at the same time, that if a party targeted one ruthlessly they could well have a surge.

I think the result will be along the lines of LAB: 60%, LDM: 25-30%, which I'd see as a surge.

Edit: I'm leaving my previous comments as a sign of my ignorance. I didn't realise Alperton was very much a Hindu area (almost over 50%), which may hurt Labour enough to cost them the seat (especially since it's a bit less safe than the other Brent seats up next week).

[peterl]

Is there a particular reason that a large Hindu population might be considered bad for Labour?

[timmullen1]

Jan 13, 2020 16:46:59 GMT peterl said:

Is there a particular reason that a large Hindu population might be considered bad for Labour?

I’m not sure if this is what bjornhattan was referring to, but shortly before the GE there was a new Hindu group urging followers not to support Labour because of their support for Pakistani Kashmir and criticism of Modi’s brand of Hindu nationalism.

[finsobruce]

Jan 13, 2020 16:58:04 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jan 13, 2020 16:46:59 GMT peterl said:

Is there a particular reason that a large Hindu population might be considered bad for Labour?

I’m not sure if this is what @bjornhatton was referring to, but shortly before the GE there was a new Hindu group urging followers not to support Labour because of their support for Pakistani Kashmir and criticism of Modi’s brand of Hindu nationalism.

I think it was, yes.

 

[ColinJ]

Jan 13, 2020 16:59:35 GMT finsobruce said:

Jan 13, 2020 16:58:04 GMT timmullen1 said:

I’m not sure if this is what @bjornhatton was referring to, but shortly before the GE there was a new Hindu group urging followers not to support Labour because of their support for Pakistani Kashmir and criticism of Modi’s brand of Hindu nationalism.

I think it was, yes.

 

And don't forget that the Labour candidate in Alperton has been suspended (although the matter may have since been resolved since the story was broken by the Brent and Kilburn Times) after allegations of anti-Muslim, pro-Bob Blackman, tweets.

[Deleted]

Labour did pretty badly in Brent North in the GE.

I think they'll lose one of the by-elections.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 19, 2020 8:23:06 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Labour did pretty badly in Brent North in the GE.

I think they'll lose one of the by-elections.

This is a mini-Brent North by-election as three of the nine wards in the constituency are up for election. They are not typical of the constituency as a whole though, being the three safest Labour wards.
My estimation of the general election result in these three wards is that on aggregate they would have broken 59% Labour 29% Conservative (against 52% and 36% in the constituency as a whole) with all three wards being close to these figures but a slightly higher Conservative share in Barnhill.
The pre-2002 Barnhill was a very safe Conservative ward and still has good residential areas in the original core of the seat but was expanded then to take the Chalk Hill estate from the old St Andrews ward and another area of social housing from Kingsbury (West of the Jubilee line). These areas have a large black population whereas Alperton is more predominantly Indian and Hindu while Wembley Central has a fair old mix. Alperton and Wembley Central were always basically safe Labour wards (notwithstanding local Lib Dem strength) and were in Brent South until 2010 whereas Barnhill was at the heart of the original Brent North and often the safest Conservative ward therein. They managed to win it still for the first couple of elections following the boundary changes and differential turnout could assist them if they score well in the (now mainly Indian) centre of the ward, whereas in Alperton and Wembley Central they don't enjoy that kind of natural core of support

[Chris from Brum]

And here are Andrew's Previews: www.britainelects.com/2020/01/23/previews-23-jan-2020/

[Deleted]

Jan 23, 2020 12:31:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 19, 2020 8:23:06 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Labour did pretty badly in Brent North in the GE.

I think they'll lose one of the by-elections.

This is a mini-Brent North by-election as three of the nine wards in the constituency are up for election. They are not typical of the constituency as a whole though, being the three safest Labour wards.
My estimation of the general election result in these three wards is that on aggregate they would have broken 59% Labour 29% Conservative (against 52% and 36% in the constituency as a whole) with all three wards being close to these figures but a slightly higher Conservative share in Barnhill.
The pre-2002 Barnhill was a very safe Conservative ward and still has good residential areas in the original core of the seat but was expanded then to take the Chalk Hill estate from the old St Andrews ward and another area of social housing from Kingsbury (West of the Jubilee line). These areas have a large black population whereas Alperton is more predominantly Indian and Hindu while Wembley Central has a fair old mix. Alperton and Wembley Central were always basically safe Labour wards (notwithstanding local Lib Dem strength) and were in Brent South until 2010 whereas Barnhill was at the heart of the original Brent North and often the safest Conservative ward therein. They managed to win it still for the first couple of elections following the boundary changes and differential turnout could assist them if they score well in the (now mainly Indian) centre of the ward, whereas in Alperton and Wembley Central they don't enjoy that kind of natural core of support

A sign of how the Brent and Harrow GLA constituency might vote in May.

The Tories halved Labour's majority in 2016 and the incumbent is retiring.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

D&G is definitely counting tomorrow.

Don't know about Brent.

[Chris from Brum]

Jan 23, 2020 22:21:14 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

D&G is definitely counting tomorrow.

Don't know about Brent.

They have tweeted about counting now.

[samdwebber]

[timmullen1]

[iain]

Alperton is reportedly very tight

[bjornhattan]

Jan 24, 2020 0:11:19 GMT iain said:

Alperton is reportedly very tight

Is it known who between?

[iain]

Labour and Lib Dem