Local council by-elections 23rd Jan 2020

[olympian95]

Lab hold in Wembley central

[Robert Waller]

Wembley Central (Brent) result:

LAB: 54.5% (-11.8)
CON: 30.6% (+14.7)
LDEM: 10.6% (-0.6)
GRN: 4.3% (-2.3)

Labour HOLD.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BRENT Wembley Central

Sonia SHAH (Labour Party) 1,945
Sai Karthik MADABHUSHI (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,090
Jyotshna PATEL (Liberal Democrats) 378
William Kent RELTON (Green Party) 154

[olympian95]

LD gain in alperton

[samdwebber]

[mboy]

Holy Shit!

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 24, 2020 0:57:05 GMT mboy said:

Holy Shit!

Not sure it merits that. If you can't win a byelection when the previous councillor is done for defrauding some woman's life savings and the defending party's candidate is suspended for racist tweets, you really should give up.

[Robert Waller]

Barnhill (Brent) result:

LAB: 45.5% (-18.3)
CON: 41.2% (+16.1)
GRN: 8.8% (+8.8)
LDEM: 4.5% (-3.2)

Labour HOLD (X2).

[carlton43]

Jan 24, 2020 0:53:05 GMT Robert Waller said:

Wembley Central (Brent) result:

LAB: 54.5% (-11.8)
CON: 30.6% (+14.7)
LDEM: 10.6% (-0.6)
GRN: 4.3% (-2.3)

Labour HOLD.

A 13% swing to Conservatives is rather nice.

[bjornhattan]

Jan 24, 2020 0:54:07 GMT olympian95 said:

LD gain in alperton

I regret not being bold and predicting that now, I had heard there'd been a lot of work done there.

[iain]

Jan 24, 2020 0:54:45 GMT samdwebber said:

Lib Dem - 1,699
Labour - 1,304
Conservative - 900
Green - 373

[Adam in Stroud]

Jan 24, 2020 0:59:15 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Jan 24, 2020 0:57:05 GMT mboy said:

Holy Shit!

Not sure it merits that. If you can't win a byelection when the previous councillor is done for defrauding some woman's life savings and the defending party's candidate is suspended for racist tweets, you really should give up.

Yeah, Andrew's Preview had my eyebrows on the ceiling.

Still, a solid win and good to see that we're still the main opposition to Labour in this ward and not overtaken by the Tories.

[carlton43]

Jan 24, 2020 0:54:45 GMT samdwebber said:

A 27.5% move from Labour.  Not Labour's night, month, year, decade ........Is it?

[carlton43]

Jan 24, 2020 1:02:58 GMT Robert Waller said:

Barnhill (Brent) result:

LAB: 45.5% (-18.3)
CON: 41.2% (+16.1)
GRN: 8.8% (+8.8)
LDEM: 4.5% (-3.2)

Labour HOLD (X2).

Another 17% swing.  Didn't they do well?

[yellowperil]

Jan 24, 2020 0:59:15 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Jan 24, 2020 0:57:05 GMT mboy said:

Holy Shit!

Not sure it merits that. If you can't win a byelection when the previous councillor is done for defrauding some woman's life savings and the defending party's candidate is suspended for racist tweets, you really should give up.

Granted that there were some pretty massive problems for the Labour candidate, but not sure that merits  a "win or you really should give up" either. On the prediction comp we all had that down as a Labour hold even knowing the issues, and you had the LDs third on 18%, so  maybe the mboy Holy Shit wasn't so totally unjustified after all? 

[middleenglander]

Summary of party positions in 3 Brent wards since 2002:

Ward	Position	2020  byelection	2018      all out	2014      all out	2012  byelection	2011  byelection	2010      all out	2009  byelection	2006      all out	2002      all out
Alperton	1st	LD	Lab	Lab			LD		LD	LD
	2nd	Lab	Con	LD			Lab		Lab	Lab
	3rd	Con	LD	Con			Con		Con	Con
Barnhill	1st	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab		Lab		Con	Con
	2nd	Con	Con	Con	Con		Con		Lab	Lab
	3rd	Green	LD	LD	Green		LD		LD	LD
Wembley Central	1st	Lab	Lab	Lab		Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD
	2nd	Con	Con	LD		LD	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab
	3rd	LD	LD	Con		Con	Con	Con	Con	Con

Alperton:  History of Liberal Democrat councillors up to and including 2010.  Conservative second only in 2018.

Barnhill:  Conservative councillors in 2002 and 2006, then Labour with Conservatives second.

Wembley Central:  Liberal Democrat councillors 2002, 2006 and 2009 by-election, then Labour.  Conservatives second only in 2018 and 2020 by-election.

[Terry Weldon]

Jan 24, 2020 0:59:15 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Jan 24, 2020 0:57:05 GMT mboy said:

Holy Shit!

Not sure it merits that. If you can't win a byelection when the previous councillor is done for defrauding some woman's life savings and the defending party's candidate is suspended for racist tweets, you really should give up.

It's no surprise that Labour should lose. More notable, is that the beneficiary was LD, not Con. Coupled with the GE results across London, the Assembly elections in May could be interesting.

[Merseymike]

Given the content of those tweets and the previous councillors activities I think Alperton could be a lucky escape. Barry Gardner needs to be on the case and get this sorted.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 24, 2020 8:46:22 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Jan 24, 2020 0:59:15 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Not sure it merits that. If you can't win a byelection when the previous councillor is done for defrauding some woman's life savings and the defending party's candidate is suspended for racist tweets, you really should give up.

It's no surprise that Labour should lose. More notable, is that the beneficiary was LD, not Con. Coupled with the GE results across London, the Assembly elections in May could be interesting.

As Barnaby has just noted, this was an area of long-term local Lib Dem strength (which never carried over much to general or GLA elections) so it isn't at all surprising or notable that the Lib Dems were the challenger here. The last time the Conservatives won this ward was in 1968 and they had been third in all elections since 1982 with the exception of 2018

[Deleted]

Jan 24, 2020 8:52:29 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Alperton in its present & past guises was most often won by the LDs. as David says correctly the Labour candidate had been disowned. the result is hardly surprising in the circumstances. The close result in Barnhill may actually be more alarming.

Brent & Harrow might be in play in the GLA election.