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Post by robert1 on Jan 3, 2021 7:21:45 GMT
The best indicators of 'doing a Hackney' are a combination of:- a marked rise in electoral rolls (excluding University seats) and an abnormally large (when compared with demographically similar seats) fall in turnout. In 2 years Hackney N electorate apparently went from 85,058 to 92,462 and Hackney S 83,099 to 89,380
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 3, 2021 8:32:58 GMT
The best indicators of 'doing a Hackney' are a combination of:- a marked rise in electoral rolls (excluding University seats) and an abnormally large (when compared with demographically similar seats) fall in turnout. In 2 years Hackney N electorate apparently went from 85,058 to 92,462 and Hackney S 83,099 to 89,380 Having a quick look at my spreadsheet which has changes in electorate and turnout neatly recorded, Southwark and Newham would definitely fall into this category, and also perhaps Lambeth. Brent, Slough, Luton and Stafford also have unexpectedly large drops in turnout alongside more modest electorate increases. All these areas except Stafford have high ethnic minority populations, and it is of course possible that they were less likely to vote in 2019 than 2017. And since Stone has ordinary changes and is mostly in Stafford District I assume that this one is just an anomaly. Big increases in electorate are almost all student seats as robert says, plus some known rapidly expanding seats like Banbury (big new development in Bicester) and South Northamptonshire. Of course there is a very high turnover of population in London, and I suspect many new registrations don't give a previous address which can be deleted. So it isn't necessarily administrative incompetence, just a feature of the electoral registration system (and another reason why it would be better to use the census for apportionment). In which case the higher number will still be there in March. Anyway we'll know in a few days. I'm sure I'm not the only one who will be comparing the new figures with the general election ones.
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Post by robert1 on Jan 3, 2021 9:32:16 GMT
Thanks John. Just for clarification, I am not suggesting 'administrative incompetence'. The ever increasing burden that politicians throw at EROs in a more than cavalier manner was recognised in the recent Lords select committee report. I am hoping that changes to the Electoral Registration and Administration Act will ease the undue burden on them. EROs achieve an enormous amount with precious little appreciation.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 4, 2021 22:29:33 GMT
Well, now that the entire country is in lockdown, I am going to wait until midday tomorrow to access those electorate figures (to a) avoid the crush when everyone else here downloads the data and b) to give the site time to recover from the obvious crash that's going to come)
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jan 5, 2021 9:30:48 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 5, 2021 9:44:12 GMT
Thankfully the site has not crashed (which just goes to show how few people are genuinely interested in this) and it means that we can now make the following statements: United Kingdom electorate as of March 1st 2020: 47,558,400 Electorate in preserved constituencies: Not known (data unpublished) Electorate in remaining 645 constituencies: Not know (data unpublished) Electoral Quota: Not known (data unpublished) Well, that's a fat lot of use isn't it?
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 5, 2021 9:52:49 GMT
Thankfully the site has not crashed (which just goes to show how few people are genuinely interested in this) and it means that we can now make the following statements: United Kingdom electorate as of March 1st 2020: 47,558,400 Electorate in preserved constituencies: Not known (data unpublished) Electorate in remaining 645 constituencies: Not know (data unpublished) Electoral Quota: Not known (data unpublished) Well, that's a fat lot of use isn't it? Don’t be ridiculous. The data is all there.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jan 5, 2021 9:54:57 GMT
Thankfully the site has not crashed (which just goes to show how few people are genuinely interested in this) and it means that we can now make the following statements: United Kingdom electorate as of March 1st 2020: 47,558,400 Electorate in preserved constituencies: Not known (data unpublished) Electorate in remaining 645 constituencies: Not know (data unpublished) Electoral Quota: Not known (data unpublished) Well, that's a fat lot of use isn't it? Indeed. That summary bulletin gives a good overview, but the site doesn't tell us the somewhat crucial details of electorates by local authority or ward. The link under heading 4 leads to this page, which still only has the 2019 data available, released last May. What a tease the folks at the ONS are. If the Boundary Commissions had the numbers to hand, I'm sure they wouldn't mess us about like that.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 5, 2021 9:58:09 GMT
Thankfully the site has not crashed (which just goes to show how few people are genuinely interested in this) and it means that we can now make the following statements: United Kingdom electorate as of March 1st 2020: 47,558,400 Electorate in preserved constituencies: Not known (data unpublished) Electorate in remaining 645 constituencies: Not know (data unpublished) Electoral Quota: Not known (data unpublished) Well, that's a fat lot of use isn't it? Indeed. That summary bulletin gives a good overview, but the site doesn't tell us the somewhat crucial details of electorates by local authority or ward. The link under heading 4 leads to this page, which still only has the 2019 data available, released last May. What a tease the folks at the ONS are. If the Boundary Commissions had the numbers to hand, I'm sure they wouldn't mess us about like that. I have just phoned the ONS (01329 444 661) and left an answering machine message for Mr. Park (the person who is said to be in charge) and asked very politely where the data is.
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 5, 2021 9:58:27 GMT
Thankfully the site has not crashed (which just goes to show how few people are genuinely interested in this) and it means that we can now make the following statements: United Kingdom electorate as of March 1st 2020: 47,558,400 Electorate in preserved constituencies: Not known (data unpublished) Electorate in remaining 645 constituencies: Not know (data unpublished) Electoral Quota: Not known (data unpublished) Well, that's a fat lot of use isn't it? Indeed. That summary bulletin gives a good overview, but the site doesn't tell us the somewhat crucial details of electorates by local authority or ward. The link under heading 4 leads to this page, which still only has the 2019 data available, released last May. What a tease the folks at the ONS are. If the Boundary Commissions had the numbers to hand, I'm sure they wouldn't mess us about like that. I don’t know what people are looking at, but I am looking at a series of tables that clearly state they are March 2020 registrations.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jan 5, 2021 10:01:18 GMT
Indeed. That summary bulletin gives a good overview, but the site doesn't tell us the somewhat crucial details of electorates by local authority or ward. The link under heading 4 leads to this page, which still only has the 2019 data available, released last May. What a tease the folks at the ONS are. If the Boundary Commissions had the numbers to hand, I'm sure they wouldn't mess us about like that. I don’t know what people are looking at, but I am looking at a series of tables that clearly state they are March 2020 registrations. Unless I am missing something quite spectacularly, and those tables somehow contain data for every single ward in the UK (bar possibly those in the Isles of Scilly and the City of London), then they are of no use whatsoever in determining constituency boundaries for the forthcoming review, which is what we're really interested in for those purposes.
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Post by carolus on Jan 5, 2021 10:03:32 GMT
I don’t know what people are looking at, but I am looking at a series of tables that clearly state they are March 2020 registrations. Unless I am missing something quite spectacularly, and those tables somehow contain data for every single ward in the UK (bar possibly those in the Isles of Scilly and the City of London), then they are of no use whatsoever in determining constituency boundaries for the forthcoming review, which is what we're really interested in for those purposes. Table four in the spreadsheet contains the breakdown for every ward in England and Wales, at least.
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Post by islington on Jan 5, 2021 10:04:41 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jan 5, 2021 10:13:10 GMT
Unless I am missing something quite spectacularly, and those tables somehow contain data for every single ward in the UK (bar possibly those in the Isles of Scilly and the City of London), then they are of no use whatsoever in determining constituency boundaries for the forthcoming review, which is what we're really interested in for those purposes. Table four in the spreadsheet contains the breakdown for every ward in England and Wales, at least. Yes, it does. For December 2019. I suppose all we can do is keep refreshing the page until the March 2020 spreadsheet becomes available.
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Post by carolus on Jan 5, 2021 10:17:07 GMT
Table four in the spreadsheet contains the breakdown for every ward in England and Wales, at least. Yes, it does. For December 2019. I suppose all we can do is keep refreshing the page until the March 2020 spreadsheet becomes available. The contents page of the spreadsheet certainly says they are from 2 March 2020.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 5, 2021 10:17:25 GMT
Nicholas Whyte (from the election coverage on BBC Northern Ireland) has found it somehow and done the calculations, therefore the answers are:
United Kingdom Electorate: 47,558,400 United Kingdom Electorate (in unreserved seats): 47,338,266 Number of unreserved constituencies: 645 Electoral Quota: 73,393 Electoral Range: No lower than 69,723 and no higher than 77,063
However, he has linked to precisely the same page as everyone else has and it still does not have that data clearly evident.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 5, 2021 10:19:39 GMT
What table 4? On that page I have 2019 edition, 2019 unformatted edition, 2018 (in both versions), 2017 (in both versions) and so on until 2011 and then formatted from 2010 - 2000. There is no Table 4
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Post by carolus on Jan 5, 2021 10:22:12 GMT
Nicholas Whyte (from the election coverage on BBC Northern Ireland) has found it somehow and done the calculations, therefore the answers are: United Kingdom Electorate: 47,558,400 United Kingdom Electorate (in unreserved seats): 47,338,266 Number of unreserved constituencies: 645 Electoral Quota: 73,393 Electoral Range: No lower than 69,723 and no higher than 77,063 However, he has linked to precisely the same page as everyone else has and it still does not have that data clearly evident. I'm not sure which page you are looking at, but on www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/datasets/electoralstatisticsforukYou need simply scroll down to the "Edition in this dataset" heading, then the first entry is "March 2020 edition of this dataset". From there, click the green "xls (2.0MB)" button.
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Post by mattb on Jan 5, 2021 10:22:36 GMT
What table 4? On that page I have 2019 edition, 2019 unformatted edition, 2018 (in both versions), 2017 (in both versions) and so on until 2011 and then formatted from 2010 - 2000. There is no Table 4 follow the link above and download the March 2020 dataset
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 5, 2021 10:26:33 GMT
What table 4? On that page I have 2019 edition, 2019 unformatted edition, 2018 (in both versions), 2017 (in both versions) and so on until 2011 and then formatted from 2010 - 2000. There is no Table 4 follow the link above and download the March 2020 dataset Which I now have, after a forced refresh.
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