The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 4, 2020 11:13:16 GMT
When it was first put forward as a Tory whinge after Cameron failed to win the 2010 general election, it was supposed to deliver 60-70 seats. Ho hum. Though of course that was with the "rigged" 600 seats thing. A number chosen specifically because it gave Tories the maximum partisan advantage.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 4, 2020 11:23:35 GMT
Several people here did a lot of work on the December 2019 figures. I know most of them didn't do this with partisan considerations in mind, but would any of our experts here care to venture an estimate based on their work, and (of course) on the 2019 results. I have more confidence in the collective wisdom of vote UK forum than Lord Ashcroft. (of course the next general election will be fought on different grounds from the last one, so all these calculations are in a sense moot, but it would still be interesting)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 4, 2020 14:36:01 GMT
Several people here did a lot of work on the December 2019 figures. I know most of them didn't do this with partisan considerations in mind, but would any of our experts here care to venture an estimate based on their work, and (of course) on the 2019 results. I have more confidence in the collective wisdom of vote UK forum than Lord Ashcroft. (of course the next general election will be fought on different grounds from the last one, so all these calculations are in a sense moot, but it would still be interesting) Lord H is Lord Hayward surely rather than Lord Ashcroft? (although can't see the article) - I'd have some faith in in his wisdom on these matters.
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Dec 4, 2020 15:05:39 GMT
At this point any attempt to put figures on it is pure speculation, often based on one particular individual's attempt to redraw boundaries themselves and assign partisan outcomes accordingly.
I think all this article is suggesting is that (on the whole) decreasing seats in Wales and Yorkshire reduces the number of Labour seats, whilst increasing seats in the South East leads to more Tory MPs.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 4, 2020 15:06:30 GMT
Several people here did a lot of work on the December 2019 figures. I know most of them didn't do this with partisan considerations in mind, but would any of our experts here care to venture an estimate based on their work, and (of course) on the 2019 results. I have more confidence in the collective wisdom of vote UK forum than Lord Ashcroft. (of course the next general election will be fought on different grounds from the last one, so all these calculations are in a sense moot, but it would still be interesting) Lord H is Lord Hayward surely rather than Lord Ashcroft? (although can't see the article) - I'd have some faith in in his wisdom on these matters. Rather than ask Lord Hayward, you could always ask a member of this forum.
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 4, 2020 15:46:15 GMT
ISTR he's a member but can't find the username.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 4, 2020 15:47:23 GMT
ISTR he's a member but can't find the username. robert1
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Post by michael2019 on Dec 4, 2020 16:01:55 GMT
Don't tell Rupert but here is the Times article:
Boris Johnson will fight the next election with an advantage of up to ten seats under a redrawn constituency map compiled from figures to be published next month.
He is also set to lift the national campaign spending cap from £19.5 million to about £33 million — in line with inflation — in time for the next election.
The boundaries for Westminster elections are long overdue an overhaul after two previous efforts to reduce the number of MPs from 650 to 600 were abandoned in 2013 and 2018.
Although parliament has decided to stick with 650 MPs, a third attempt to equalise the UK’s constituencies so that each contains 73,000 voters with a permitted margin either side of five per cent is under way, with only island constituencies exempt.
The final map will not be complete until 2023 and will be drawn from the number of electors in each area on March 2020 — data that is due to be published by the Office for National Statistics next month.
Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and psephologist, says it is possible to make rough calculations of which parts of the UK will lose seats and which will gain based on the December 2019 rolls.
Wales, which has yet to have its allocation reduced to reflect the creation of the Welsh Assembly, is the biggest loser with about eight fewer MPs.
Scotland, northeast England, northwest England, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are all likely to lose between one or two constituencies.
Southeast England is likely to gain eight seats with the remaining uplift in the number of constituencies spread between the east of England, the southwest of England and London.
“The net benefit to the Tories is likely to be between five and ten,” Lord Hayward said.
The Conservatives’ gains in so-called Red-Wall seats in 2019 mitigate against gains that give greater weight to votes in the south, he pointed out. Labour will also see some of their losses offset as large urban seats such as Bristol West are rationalised, making their city vote more efficient.
Chloe Smith, a Cabinet Office minister, announced changes to the election spending limits including the government’s intention to uprate those for general elections, which were set in 2000.
The Conservatives generally outspend Labour and an increase in the spending limit will be judged as delivering another advantage to the governing parties. This week Mr Johnson published draft legislation scrapping the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That in effect restores the prime minister’s power to time an election for maximum political advantage.
The final stages of legislation setting up the new boundary commission will pass in the new year. As well as establishing the new map it removes the right of MPs and ministers to block the new boundaries. The work will have to be completed by July 1, 2023.
The next review after the 2023 review will have to be completed by October 1, 2031; with subsequent reviews required to report by October 1 every eight years thereafter.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 4, 2020 16:02:14 GMT
ISTR he's a member but can't find the username. robert1 So that's the person who has been asking these question in their Lordship's house who I assumed was asking FOI requests? Well, in that case: (polite cough) To the noble Lord, the Lord Hayward robert1. May I ask His noble Lordship if he would be so kind as to provide (by whatever means his Lordship is able to do so) a table showing his working out of this report, or if that is not possible, then an indication of which constituencies he believes would start out as notional Conservative seats that are not Conservative at the moment?I hope that was respectful enough for a member of the House of Peers?
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Post by robert1 on Dec 4, 2020 18:55:07 GMT
Harry (particularly given COVID)- I would prefer it if you didn't cough-politely or otherwise. An obsequious bow or a pint would produce a reply!
Ilerda is broadly correct. Since we don't have any figures yet I discourage people from going below approximate regional estimates, which are based on looking at electorate figures per seat (Dec 2019) and any other data available.
It is probably also worth noting that some regions/countries are relatively close to an 'entitlement cross-over point'. A relatively small change in electorates in London could therefore, in theory, influence Scotland's seat total.
There are also the 'rules' as set out in the legislation which the Commissions are required to consider when drawing boundaries. These give some indication of how seats might be drawn. I would precis the 'rules' in the legislation if I had it with me at home. If someone else doesn't do it over the weekend I'll try to remember to post on Monday. They include:- existing constituency boundaries, councils, geographical factors, historical ties etc.
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Wisconsin
Lib Dem
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Post by Wisconsin on Dec 4, 2020 19:37:48 GMT
Five factors (six for England):
5 (1) A Boundary Commission may take into account, if and to such extent as they think fit—
(a) special geographical considerations, including in particular the size, shape and accessibility of a constituency (b) local government boundaries which exist, or are prospective, on the review date; (c) boundaries of existing constituencies; (d) any local ties that would be broken by changes in constituencies; (e) the inconveniences attendant on such changes.
(2) The Boundary Commission for England may take into account, if and to such extent as they think fit, boundaries of the English regions specified in sub-paragraph (2A) as they exist on the most recent ordinary council-election day before the review date.
Also the quota rule, 13,000km2 rule, respecting the four parts of the UK, and the protected constituencies.
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Post by robert1 on Dec 5, 2020 9:57:28 GMT
Thank you Wisconsin for producing the detail of the Act. I had a Bristol Bears game to watch and wasn't going to get distracted by searching the web. Apologies.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 9, 2020 19:08:40 GMT
Royal Assent needs to be given to the Parliamentary Constituencies Bill ASAP. The review is supposed to officially start this month and utilise data that will be released in less than a month's time.
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Wisconsin
Lib Dem
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Post by Wisconsin on Dec 9, 2020 19:48:31 GMT
Why ASAP? Who would sue? What illegal acts could the Commissions perform?
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 9, 2020 21:40:32 GMT
When it comes to calculating these new constituency notional results, which way round do we do it? Taking the 2005 notionals for Scotland in 2001, do we do this way:
Aberdeen North is made up of Aberdeen Central (39,639 electors, 56.9%), Aberdeen North (29,255 electors, 42.0%) and Aberdeen South (728 electors, 1.1%)
or this way
Aberdeen Central is dispersed to Aberdeen North (39,639 electors, 78.6%) and Aberdeen South (10,770 electors, 21.4%)
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 9, 2020 21:54:33 GMT
I'm sure it will happen before the Christmas recess, I suspect they are waiting for the Internal Market Bill to complete its process, then they can do Royal Assent to all outstanding bills together.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 9, 2020 22:24:41 GMT
When it comes to calculating these new constituency notional results, which way round do we do it? Taking the 2005 notionals for Scotland in 2001, do we do this way: Aberdeen North is made up of Aberdeen Central (39,639 electors, 56.9%), Aberdeen North (29,255 electors, 42.0%) and Aberdeen South (728 electors, 1.1%) or this way Aberdeen Central is dispersed to Aberdeen North (39,639 electors, 78.6%) and Aberdeen South (10,770 electors, 21.4%) The first way. As a hypothetical example on December 2019 electoral figures, Thornbury would be made up of The Cotswolds (14,914 electors, 21%), Filton & Bradley Stoke (3,783 electors, 5.3%), Stroud (31,056 electors, 42.7%) and Thornbury & Yate (22,058 electors, 31%).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 14, 2020 14:41:48 GMT
Royal Assent was today given to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 14, 2020 14:50:27 GMT
Royal Assent was today given to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020. Gentlemen, prepare to start your engines for the Great Boundary Carve Up 2021 - 2023
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Post by greenhert on Dec 14, 2020 15:29:09 GMT
Royal Assent was today given to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020. Gentlemen, prepare to start your engines for the Great Boundary Carve Up 2021 - 2023 We will still have to wait three weeks until the ONS releases the relevant electorate data, though, before we can submit proposed constituencies for 2024.
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