Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 30, 2019 16:12:30 GMT
A potentially interesting contest in Bristol to start the decade:
BRISTOL UA; Brislington East (Lab died)
Candidates:
MURRAY, Tara AA (Liberal Democrat)
PRICE-SOSNER, Isaac (Green)
RIPPINGTON, Timothy Charles (Labour)
WILLIAMS, Richard Peter (Conservative)
2016: Lab 1370, 1060; Con 1208, 1072; Grn 439, 389; LD 342, 323
Current Council: Lab 35; Con 14; Grn 11; LD 9; 1 vacancy
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Jan 9, 2020 16:32:13 GMT
The other sitting councillor, who was elected as a Tory, defected to the Lib Dems last year over Brexit and Boris (before the death of the other cllr) and has a strong personal vote.
I understand Labour and the Lib Dems are active, but little from anyone else. The adjacent ward, Brislington West, has long been a Lib Dem ward (except during the depths of the Coalition). I would predict 80% chance of Labour win, 15% chance of LD win, 5% chance of Tory win.
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Post by casualobserver on Jan 13, 2020 2:11:16 GMT
I would predict 80% chance of Labour win, 15% chance of LD win, 5% chance of Tory win. Hilarious! mboy as objective as ever! I’d expect the Conservatives to win this by-election, although admittedly on an unusually low turnout. I hear that many more residents than usual are saying that they’re fed up with politics and aren’t intending to vote on Thursday. Labour is still languishing nationally and its current necessary bloodletting won’t endear the party to the electorate in the short term. Non-Conservative voters are still licking their electoral wounds and have their political tails between their legs while Conservatives are still buoyant following the GE. Labour have hardly endeared themselves to the Bristol tree-huggers as they’ve just agreed to purchase 64 diesel vehicles for the City Council in a move that many have described as hypocritical. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 13, 2020 9:22:05 GMT
I would predict 80% chance of Labour win, 15% chance of LD win, 5% chance of Tory win. Hilarious! mboy as objective as ever! I’d expect the Conservatives to win this by-election, although admittedly on an unusually low turnout. I hear that many more residents than usual are saying that they’re fed up with politics and aren’t intending to vote on Thursday. Labour is still languishing nationally and its current necessary bloodletting won’t endear the party to the electorate in the short term. Non-Conservative voters are still licking their electoral wounds and have their political tails between their legs while Conservatives are still buoyant following the GE. Labour have hardly endeared themselves to the Bristol tree-huggers as they’ve just agreed to purchase 64 diesel vehicles for the City Council in a move that many have described as hypocritical. Hmm. Glad to see that unlike mboy you maintain such absolutely impecable standards of impartiality and objectivity with phrases like "non-Conservative voters still licking their electoral wounds", "political tails between their legs" "Bristol tree-huggers" , "a move that many have described as hypocritical "etc. That is a lot of loaded phrases to pack in a 5-line post. I do wonder exactly who have been saying they don't intend to vote and whether just some of those might be from your side of the political argument. You may prove to be right in your assessment of the overall position, and mboy may be wrong, but I think we need to see what happens in the ballot boxes before rushing to judgement. |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Jan 13, 2020 9:59:39 GMT
Acting LD leader Ed Davey was helping in the by election over the weekend:
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Post by samdwebber on Jan 13, 2020 13:11:31 GMT
A 2 tweet response from Labour:
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Jan 13, 2020 13:33:18 GMT
Anyone got any idea what she's going on about? Though Labour never like it when the voters are reminded of what their reps have been up to. Actually, didn't I say this only a few weeks ago? Ah, yes, here: It's a feature of politics that people regard being reminded of inconvenient past statements and political activities as ad hominem. Lib Dems like to put out leaflets before elections reminding voters how their Lab/Con representatives have voted, and these usually go down like a bucket of sick with those concerned. Sounds like Labour are worried. The Bristol mayor is very unpopular in those parts... |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 13, 2020 13:34:22 GMT
Anyone got any idea what she's going on about? Though Labour never like it when the voters are reminded of what their reps have been up to. Actually, didn't I say this only a few weeks ago? Ah, yes, here: It's a feature of politics that people regard being reminded of inconvenient past statements and political activities as ad hominem. Lib Dems like to put out leaflets before elections reminding voters how their Lab/Con representatives have voted, and these usually go down like a bucket of sick with those concerned. Sounds like they're worried... Maybe someone in the Lib Dems could post the leaflets here? |
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mboy
Liberal
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Posts: 23,764
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Post by mboy on Jan 13, 2020 13:48:02 GMT
Strangely, I don't get sent all party election leaflets  Seriously though, the fact that McCarthy didn't tweet a screenshot of said offending leaflet suggests the accusation doesn't hold water. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 13, 2020 14:05:06 GMT
Anyone got any idea what she's going on about? Though Labour never like it when the voters are reminded of what their reps have been up to. Actually, didn't I say this only a few weeks ago? Ah, yes, here: It's a feature of politics that people regard being reminded of inconvenient past statements and political activities as ad hominem. Lib Dems like to put out leaflets before elections reminding voters how their Lab/Con representatives have voted, and these usually go down like a bucket of sick with those concerned. Sounds like Labour are worried. The Bristol mayor is very unpopular in those parts... The 7th and 8th stuff is ridiculous - yes you came 3rd but she's acting like some ultra fringe movement, which you clearly aren't here. This ward will be an interesting one, since it's one of the least metropolitan in Bristol - I genuinely couldn't call it between any of the three main parties. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 13, 2020 14:19:26 GMT
Strangely, I don't get sent all party election leaflets Seriously though, the fact that McCarthy didn't tweet a screenshot of said offending leaflet suggests the accusation doesn't hold water. Doesn't have to be you! I'm sure someone in the Bristol Lib Dems could provide one tout suite.
I wouldn't be surprised if McCarthy is annoyed by sort of criticism, justified or unjustified.
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Post by samdwebber on Jan 13, 2020 14:50:54 GMT
perhaps this leaflet?
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 13, 2020 14:52:59 GMT
thanks Sam! i think Stephen Williams needs to smarten himself up a bit though. Have a word. |
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Post by robert1 on Jan 13, 2020 15:14:52 GMT
I note the election is ‘neck and neck’. No immediate sign of between whom. I presume there will be a bar chart or an ‘only.......can win here’ message somewhere else on the leaflet.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 13, 2020 15:37:35 GMT
This ward will be an interesting one, since it's one of the least metropolitan in Bristol - I genuinely couldn't call it between any of the three main parties. It's on the very eastern edge of the city, on the road out to Bath. Next stop Keynsham, that's K-E-Y-N-S-H-A-M.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 13, 2020 15:40:02 GMT
This ward will be an interesting one, since it's one of the least metropolitan in Bristol - I genuinely couldn't call it between any of the three main parties. It's on the very eastern edge of the city, on the road out to Bath. Next stop Keynsham, that's K-E-Y-N-S-H-A-M.
Yes, my knowledge of this ward mainly comes from the fact I've had a lot of pints at one of the pubs in it. You can get there for reasonably cheap by bus from Oxford, and it's close to my Bristolian mates. I'm used to the X39 to Bath from here. |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Jan 13, 2020 16:35:44 GMT
Which pub?
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 13, 2020 16:41:03 GMT
The Kings Arms. A canny place, for what it's worth. |
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mboy
Liberal
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Posts: 23,764
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Post by mboy on Jan 13, 2020 16:47:51 GMT
Went there once, about a decade ago! Looking at the Google pics, it looks like it's been nicely refurbished since then...
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 13, 2020 16:49:26 GMT
Went there once, about a decade ago! Looking at the Google pics, it looks like it's been nicely refurbished since then... It's far enough out that I can just about stomach the price of a pint (though it's no Chippenham where it's all £3). |
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Seriously though, the fact that McCarthy didn't tweet a screenshot of said offending leaflet suggests the accusation doesn't hold water.
